Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.     

谈体育教学中的创新人才培养

面对21世纪的人才竞争,体育教学必须培养创新型人才,教师应努力营造良好的教学创新氛围,激发学生主动创新的意识,发展学生的个性,培养其创新人格,提高审美能力,把"要我学"的被动选择变成"我要学"的主体行为。     

大学创新与科学学派形成

在世界科技发展的历史长河中,几乎所有重大科学的发现和科学理论的提出都与科学学派有关。有学派才会有科学观点的碰撞,才会产生新思想的火花。学派与创新总是行影相随。科学学派为创新活动提供了最基本的动力和发展平台。中国大学的学派建设任重而道远,在一些仍处于学科群的创建和分支扩展阶段的学科研究领域,中国大学的学者们完全有可能抓住机遇,创建在国际上有影响的学派。     

地方政府创新研究的热点主题与理论前瞻

地方政府创新是我国重要的政治现象与理论研究的热点议题。对国内涉及地方政府创新的研究文献进行系统梳理,运用文献计量方法,结合因子分析、聚类分析和社会网络分析之后,可归纳出地方政府创新研究的四个热点主题:地方政府创新的基本理论研究、地方政府创新与政府改革研究、地方政府创新与政府绩效研究、地方政府创新中的动因研究。据此可提出此研究的前沿性领域:政府创新管理的理论研究、地方政府创新的持续力研究、地方政府创新的制度化研究、公共服务创新研究。在区分显性公共需求和隐性公共需求的基础上,可得出创新性公共服务与回应性公共服务的分析框架。     

高等院校科技创新团队建设研究

高等院校具有学科门类齐全、物质力量雄厚、人才结构合理等特点 ,便于开展团队性创新科研活动。创新团队应该具有目标明确、梯队合理、学术平等、能够展开国际合作等特征 ,因此团队的建设也要从合理的人员规模和动态组合、先进的基地建设、开放的运行机制等方面入手。在管理上遵循促进创新的原则 ,加强政策法规上的引导 ,创建合理的管理体制 ,统一规划研究项目和内容 ,树立以人为本、以学术为尊的理念 ,加强团队文化的建设 ,从而创建良好的科研环境 ,为优秀的高校科技创新团队的组建提供条件。     

西部地区技术创新存在问题与对策研究

新中国成立以来,西部地区的技术创新取得了很大发展,但是从总体上看,西部地区的技术创新与全国相比仍处于落后地位;通过对西部地区技术创新存在问题的分析,提出了西部地区推进技术创新的对策与建议。     

Quality certification, institutions and innovation in local agro-food systems: Protected designations of origin of olive oil in Spain

This article examines the interrelations between establishment of territorial quality certification systems (Protected Designations of Origin or PDOs), diffusion of innovations through local agro-food chains, and the role of the institutions overseeing geographical designations. Empirical analysis is applied to olive oil PDOs in Spain and entails a detailed case study of the “Sierra Mágina” PDO in Andalusia. Making use of the neoinstitutional concept of ‘organised proximity’—and focussing specifically on the problematic of organizational quality—the article assesses characteristics that support the competitive positions of local certified-product production systems. In particular, the authors find that collective organisation and coordination between PDO agents who are locally responsible for quality assurance and protection can enhance local competitiveness. Three hypotheses are confirmed. First, PDO labels can, through the action of PDO regulators, become quality assurance systems for distributors. Second, PDO Regulatory Boards can enhance and coordinate local inter-professional activities, particularly with respect to the diffusion of quality-enhancing innovations and knowledge. Third, the study indicates that local certified-product systems are starting to incorporate quality attributes linked to the environment and sustainable development, although much remains to be accomplished in this regard.     

Ecosocial change and community resilience: The case of “Bönan” in glocal transition

ABSTRACT

The aim of this article was to identify and discuss ecosocial changes and community resilience mechanisms in a coastal fishing community of Sweden – Bönan. Data were collected through eight semi-structured interviews and field observations. An abductive thematic analysis was used to analyze data and background literature. The findings showed that Bönan has been exposed to a combination of ecosocial changes that have transformed the community, and therefore required community resilience interventions. This article concludes that social workers need to take an active part in ecosocial work for enhancing community resilience.     

论我国区域旅游合作进程中的协调机制创新

随着区域经济合作的不断发展,近年来我国的区域旅游合作取得了一定的进展,但仍然存在着一些问题。为实现区域旅游合作可持续发展,需要建立以政府为主导、以旅游企业为主体、以行业协会为纽带的合作模式,并在此基础上推动合作中协调机制的创新。新的机制主要包括建立跨区域的权威协调机构、完善利益分享和补偿机制、建立区域性旅游集团、打造区域旅游产业集群、提供旅游公共信息等。