欧元长期低迷的外在制约因素分析

现在美国的经济增长速度开始放缓 ,而欧盟的经济状况在经历两年的调整之后进入一个比较稳定的发展阶段。从理论上来讲欧元的汇率应该有一个坚挺的趋势 ,但事实却相反 ,欧元却一直走弱。本文通过欧盟和美国对欧元态度的对比 ,对这种现象做了一些分析。美国出于自身的利益考虑不希望欧元走强 ;而欧盟各国也都乐于看到欧元疲软 ;与此同时市场投资者也对欧元信心不足。这些态度其实成了解释欧元汇率的走势为什么屡屡出乎预测家的估计 ,一直保持相对弱势的关键原因     

论我国企业编制"增值表"的现实必要性

增值表确能提供相当有用的财务信息 ,它丰富了企业对外报表的内容 ,借鉴国外有关社会责任会计的理论和方法 ,编制有中国特色的增值表 ,不仅必要 ,而且势在必行     

我国期货市场的法规探讨

本文阐述了期货市场法律规范的基本原则和主要功能，介绍了我国期货市场的近期发展与法规现状，并对我国期贷市场法律规范的基本原则与体系设置作了探讨。     

Government Risk Management Priorities: A Comparison of the Preferences of Asian Indian Americans and Other Americans

A survey was conducted of approximately 200 Asian Indian Americans and 200 other residents of New Jersey in order to understand the risk management priorities that they want government to have. We found that Asian Indian Americans, especially younger women, focused on personal/family risks, such as alcohol and drug abuse, sexual abuse, and domestic violence. The New Jersey comparison group, in contrast, placed war/terrorism and loss of health care services and insurance at the top of their priorities for government. These results suggest stressful acculturation-related issues within the Asian Indian community. Both populations want more risk management from government than they believe government is currently providing. Respondents who wanted more from government tended to dread the risk, be fearful of the consequences, trust government, and have a feeling of personal efficacy. Within the Asian Indian American sample, wide variations were observed by language spoken at home and religious affiliation. Notably, Muslims and Hindi language speakers tended not to trust government and hence wanted less government involvement. This study supports our call for studies of recent migrant populations and Johnson's for testing ethnic identity and acculturation as factors in risk judgments.     

我国货币政策失效的原因分析及对策

1997年以来,我国的货币政策在经济增长中起到了一定的作用,但也存在一些失效,主要表现在利率机制、准备金政策、公开市场业务等方面存在缺陷。因此,必须不断完善我国的货币政策,以便更好地为经济增长提供政策指导。     

Bayesian validation assessment of multivariate computational models

Multivariate model validation is a complex decision-making problem involving comparison of multiple correlated quantities, based upon the available information and prior knowledge. This paper presents a Bayesian risk-based decision method for validation assessment of multivariate predictive models under uncertainty. A generalized likelihood ratio is derived as a quantitative validation metric based on Bayes’ theorem and Gaussian distribution assumption of errors between validation data and model prediction. The multivariate model is then assessed based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a Bayesian decision threshold, a function of the decision costs and prior of each hypothesis. The probability density function of the likelihood ratio is constructed using the statistics of multiple response quantities and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is implemented in the validation of a transient heat conduction model, using a multivariate data set from experiments. The Bayesian methodology provides a quantitative approach to facilitate rational decisions in multivariate model assessment under uncertainty.     

中国劳动力参与率方面存在的问题

目前我国劳动力参与率方面仍存在的许多问题,如劳动力参与率水平总体较高,其中的女性人口劳动力参与率、青年人口劳动力参与率和老年人口劳动力参与率均尤为高。针对这种情况,可考虑通过大力发展教育事业,提高法定劳动年龄界限来解决。     

Ranking Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Scenarios: The Italian Case

A quantitative criterion for ranking the different scenarios of nuclear and radiological terrorism has been developed. The aim of the model is not to predict terroristic events but only to indicate which scenario has the higher utility from the point of view of a terroristic organization in terms of balance between factors favoring and discouraging the attack, respectively. All these factors were quantified according to a scoring system that takes into account the logarithmic relationship between perceptions and stimuli. The criterion was applied to several scenarios, each of which was modeled in a simple but not trivial way in order to estimate the expected damage in terms of probable life losses from both radiative and nonradiative effects. The outcome from the ranking method indicates that the attractive scenario appears to be the detonation of a low yield improvised nuclear device in the metropolitan area of a major city.     

高校内部审计风险原因及对策研究

内部审计机构的相对独立性、审计人员业务能力的局限性、审计方法及审计手段的落后状况等因素决定了内部审计风险的客观存在,目前高校办学和业务活动出现了一些新的特点,高校的内部审计工作不仅同样也存在风险,且较之以前有加大的趋势。本文论述了高校内部审计风险产生原因并相应提出了防范和控制风险的措施。     

Bonus—Malus模型在银行贷款机制中的应用

将Bonus—MalLis模型应用到银行贷款业务，通过调整银行的Bonus-MalLis贷款利率来减少贷款欺诈行为。主要是建立借款人的银行个人信用体系，通过借款人上阶段的还款利率和表现决定其下阶段还款利率，这样就提供了一种与完全审计机制不同的奖惩机制。在一些简单假设下可证明Bonus—Malus利率将会消除所有欺诈行为，而非仅仅减少欺诈行为。