破除中西文化交流的三大思想障碍

在当今全球化的大趋势下倡导和推动中西文化交流有三大思想障碍 ,即认定不可能有平等的文化交流 ,认定未来世界文化的大趋势是一种文化取代另一种文化或认定文化融合的最终境界是无差别的、统一的世界文化 ,夸大不同语言、文化系统的不可译性。在对平等交流有无可能 ,无差别的、统一的世界文化有无可能 ,准确的文化翻译有无可能等三个理论问题作了辨析以后 ,作者表达了一个愿望 :中西双方回到平等交流的元点上来 ,加深了解与认识 ,促进中西文化的进一步交流与融合。     

Significant Factors of Aviation Insurance and Risk Management Strategy: An Empirical Study of Taiwanese Airline Carriers

Aviation insurance premiums have become a heavy burden for the airline industry since September 11, 2001. Although the industry must constantly balance its operations between profitability and safety, the reality is that airlines are in the business of making money. Therefore, their ability to reduce cost and manage risk is a key factor for success. Unlike past research, which used subjective judgment methods, this study applied quantitative historical data (1999–2000) and gray relation analysis to identify the primary factors influencing ratemaking for aviation insurance premiums. An empirical study of six airlines in Taiwan was conducted to determine these factors and to analyze the management strategies used to deal with them. Results showed that the loss experience and performance of individual airlines were the key elements associated with aviation insurance premiums paid by each airline. By identifying and understanding the primary factors influencing ratemaking for aviation insurance, airlines will better understand their relative operational strengths and weaknesses, and further help top management identify areas for further improvement. Knowledge of these factors combined with effective risk management strategies, may result in lower premiums and operating costs for airline companies.     

Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.     

Effects of Marriage and Children on Financial Risk Tolerance: A Synthesis of Family Development and Prospect Theory

Family development and prospect theory were used as a framework to predict variability in individuals' subjective financial risk tolerance within distinct family structures. Gender, age, and income were expected to interact with the main effects of family structure (marital status and children). Theory-generated hypotheses were examined in Study 1 (data from university housing respondents, n = 76) and Study 2 (the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances, n = 4,305). One family structure main effect (child presence) was significant for investment risk tolerance in both studies. Family structure interactions (marital status × age and child × income) were significant for employment risk (Study 1), and child × age was significant for investment risk in Study 2.     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

从《朝天录》看朝鲜使节与域外文人的文化交流

李朝时期,朝鲜使臣频繁出使明朝,由于其另一身份为精通汉学的文人,因此与同样深受中国影响的域外文人进行了文学交流:李安讷同孔闻謤的诗歌酬唱,体现了中朝两国的文化认同;金尚宪与吴大斌的惺惺相惜,体现了文人间的友好情谊;李醉光与安南使者冯克宽、琉球使者蔡坚的文学往来,体现了朝鲜文学在安南等国的影响.朝鲜使臣在出使明朝的过程中,以文学为裁体,同域外文人进行了广泛的文化交流.     

网上购物风险来源、类型及其影响因素研究

从风险来源的角度深入地研究了网上购物感知风险类型与其相对强度,对于企业从风险来源上降低和管理网上风险具有重要的指导意义.文章发现消费者在网上购物时,风险主要来源于产品本身、远距离交易、互联网这种交易模式和网站这四个方面.研究结果揭示了,当消费者在网上购物的时候,所感受到最强烈的三个风险分别是,来自于产品本身的产品绩效风险、来自于远距离交易的服务风险和来自于网站的来源风险.最后,研究还发现,消费者网上购物感知风险的强弱与消费者的年龄、网络购物频率之间存在较强的相关性,年龄越大,感知风险越强;网上购物频率越高,感知风险越低.     

风险社会的来临与历史决定论的消解

风险社会的来临改变了人类的生存境遇和生活体验，也必将导致人们观念和行为方式的改变。对现代风险社会进行认真的反思，并将与“人为的不确定性”相联系的风险概念引入，可以消解历史决定论的思维定势，也可以为马克思历史唯物主义的真实意蕴及当代性的彰显提供全新的解释维度和现实根据。     

A Semi-parametric Regression Model with Errors in Variables

Abstract.  In this paper, we consider a partial linear regression model with measurement errors in possibly all the variables. We use a method of moments and deconvolution to construct a new class of parametric estimators together with a non-parametric kernel estimator. Strong convergence, optimal rate of weak convergence and asymptotic normality of the estimators are investigated.     

供应链风险产生根源的理论分析

根据现有文献研究成果,结合实际调研分析,将供应链风险因素整理归纳为系统风险、供应风险、物流风险、信息风险、财务风险、管理风险、需求风险和环境风险。每种风险因素并非独立存在,而是相互影响、互为根源。其非线性叠加结果将会放大供应链整体风险水平。因此,必须认识到其存在的风险,只有在明确各种风险产生根源的基础上,才能恰当地制定、选择和采取有效措施,规避风险,确保供应链整体绩效稳步提高。