Competence and consent to research: A critique of the recommendations of the national bioethics advisory commission*

Concern about the participation of incompetent subjects in psychiatric research has grown in the last several years. In response, the National Bioethics Advisory Commission (NBAC) recommended in its recent report that all investigations involving persons with mental disorders that may be associated with cognitive impairment that may pose greater than minimal risk to subjects utilize independent assessors to verify the capacities of subjects prior to entry into the study. This recommendation poses several problems for the conduct of research and the protection of research subjects. First, it fails to target that group of subjects most likely to be at risk for incapacity. Second, it focuses on too broad a range of research projects, many of which pose little risk to participants. The substantial costs of this approach are therefore not likely to be outweighed by concomitant benefits. In place of the NBAC recommendation, the author proposes a more flexible system of capacity assessment, designed to balance the costs with a greater likelihood of achieving meaningful protection for research subjects with mental disorders.     

Taguchi methods: linear graphs of high resolution

An important reason behind the success of the Taguchi methodology in qual- ity assurance has been the use of statistical methods, presented in a way that is accessible to the nonexpert user. Among the tools used to simplify the sta- tistical design of experiments has been the linear graph, apparently introduced by Taguchi. However, he did not consider the resolution of the corresponding designs (the higher the resolution, the more accurate the conclusions). For example, it will be shown that half of the linear graphs given by Taguchi for the L₁₆(2¹⁵) orthogonal array correspond to designs of resolution III, when designs of resolution IV are available (with the same lines in the linear graphs but with different assignments to the columns of the orthogonal array). A nontraditional but very straightforward method is presented for obtaining the alias chains and the linear graphs corresponding to an orthogonal array. The procedure can be easily understood and employed by nonstatisticians to find an experimental design of the highest possible resolution. The design can be used to obtain products or processes that are robust to variation.     

四个崭新的理论命题--论党的第三代中央领导集体对邓小平精神文明建设理论的新发展

党的第三代中央领导集体所标揭的四个崭新的理论命题,即文化是综合国力的重要标志;以人为本,重在素质;以立为本,重在建设;弘扬主旋律,提倡多样化,是对邓小平社会主义精神文明建设理论的新发展新贡献,不仅语言是新的,而且思维也是新的,典型地体现了党的第三代中央领导集体的理论创新品格。     

我国高考科目及内容设置的三大依据

本文认为, 高考科目与内容设置应依据三个基本方面: 有利于高校选拔人才, 有利于促进中学素质教育, 有利于扩大高校办学自主权。本文就此问题进行了讨论, 试图为我国高考科目政策提供相应的理论参考框架     

马致远散曲艺术别论

马致远是元代散曲重要的代表作家,综观近年对来其散曲方面的研究,论者多局限于“诗情”、“画意”、“意境”等艺术特征的分析,本文从“就近取物的设境”、“方位切换的视角”、“重趣的场景追求”这三个被人忽略的细微艺术特征切入,再次探讨马致远的散曲艺术,感受其散曲无限的魅力。     

从里尔克的《豹》看抒情主体的结构

在抒情诗中,潜在于诗句之外的第一人称主体不止一个,"抒情主体"也不仅仅要么是对"诗人",要么是对诗歌世界中的某个对象性"人物"的指涉。以《豹》为个案对抒情主体进行的结构分析提示,诗歌中有多个潜在主体的代换。     

中国近代史研究趋势与热点问题述评

近十年来,老的政治史受到冷落,社会史、文化史的研究开始起步,现代化问题备受关注,经济史的研究仍然薄弱.形成争论的热点有如何从整体上把握中国近代史,是继续用阶级斗争的模式,以"三大高潮八大事件"来概括中国近代史,还是以现代化或资本主义化来描述中国近代历史的变革;在承认西方列强的侵略给中国带来了巨大痛苦和屈辱的同时,如何估计西方列强的冲击对中国现代化起的客观作用;辛亥革命,包括整个世界历史上的多次革命,是不是没有必要,改良是不是比革命好.     

不确定环境下考虑风险厌恶的生产-分销网络优化模型及试验设计

考虑上游生产和下游需求不确定性，研究了由工厂、分销中心及终端市场构成的生产-分销网络优化设计问题。针对上游生产不确定性，考虑产生故障和无故障两种状态；针对下游市场需求不确定性，考虑其具有低、中和高三种状态。由于生产发生故障可能导致不合格品的产生，进一步考虑了在上游生产环节是否实施产品监测问题。综合网络运作成本和由不确定性导致的绩效风险，建立了由风险厌恶水平和悲观系数刻画的基于均值-条件风险值（CVaR）准则的生产-分销网络两阶段随机规划模型。特别地，针对由网络潜在节点数众多所导致的不确定情景规模过大的问题，采用情景缩减技术进行了情景筛选，降低了所建模型的求解难度。最后，进行了数值计算，分析了相关参数对网络运作绩效的影响，并给出了期望成本和条件风险值两个目标权衡的帕累托有效前沿。进一步，通过回归试验设计检验了决策者风险厌恶水平和悲观系数对所设计的生产-分销网络绩效的影响程度。结果表明，相对于决策者的风险厌恶程度，悲观系数对网络运作绩效的影响更大。     

A formulation of the concept of probability based on the use of experimental devices

This paper sets out to identify the abilities that a person needs to be able to successfully use an experimental device, such as a probability wheel or balls in an urn, for the elicitation of subjective probabilities. It is assumed that the successful use of the device requires that the person elicits unique probability values that obey the standard probability laws. This leads to a definition of probability based on the idea of the similarity between the likeliness of events and this concept is naturally extended to the idea that probabilities have strengths, which relates to information about the likeliness of an event that lies beyond a simple probability value. The latter notion is applied to the problem of explaining the Ellsberg paradox. To avoid the definition of probability being circular, probabilities are defined such that they depend on the choice of a reference set of events R which, in simple cases, corresponds to the raw outcomes produced by using an experimental device. However, it is shown that even when the events in R are considered as having an “equal chance” of occurring, the values and/or strengths of probabilities can still be affected by the choice of the set R.     

微观计量经济学中的实验设计法——期望“计量经济（学）设计与分析”的出现

 摘　　要:本文论述了实验设计思想在微观计量经济分析中的重要作用。从实验设计三大原理局部控制、随机化和重复出发，重新诠释微观计量经济学（特别是“因果链”分析）中有关方法论的问题，预期实验经济学和微观计量经济学将通过实验设计的思想方法而互相促进，并期望“计量经济（学）设计与分析”一类读物的出现。