关于人口均衡发展与妇女民生的理性思考

坚持计划生育的基本国策有利于推动人口长期均衡发展,有利于改善妇女民生和促进妇女发展。控制人口总量的适度规模、优化人口自然结构、合理分布人口、提高人口素质与促进妇女发展和进步之间具有高度的同一性及互促性。从其长远和根本来看,我国的生育政策调整有利于人口长期均衡发展,有益于国计民生,但在一定时期内,它也可能对妇女民生及妇女发展造成某些不良影响,应当采取有力措施给予妥善解决。     

Fertility and union formation during crisis and societal consolidation in the Western Balkans

Fertility decline in central and eastern Europe (CEE) since the fall of the communist regimes has been driven by both stopping and postponement of childbearing: two processes that have been related to crisis and economic development, respectively. In the Western Balkans these economic and political contexts followed each other in the form of a biphasic transition. I examine whether this sequence triggered fertility responses like those observed elsewhere. Relying on three independent data sources, I cross-validate the levels of, and describe the trends in, union formation and fertility (by birth order) between 1980 and 2010. Results do not reveal widespread declines in fertility to lowest-low levels during the most acute period of crisis. The subsequent postponement of marriage and first birth was also limited, and the two-child family remains the norm. This relative resilience of childbearing patterns compared with other CEE countries is discussed with reference to the institutional context.     

Urban versus Rural: Fertility Decline in the Cities and Rural Districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910

Marital fertility in 54 Prussian cities and 407 Prussian Kreise (administrative areas) is analyzed using unusually rich and detailed socioeconomic and demographic data from eight quinquennial census between 1875 and 1910. Pooled cross-section time series methods are used to examine influences on marital fertility level and on marital fertility decline, focusing particularly on fertility differences according to level of urbanization. Increases in female labour force participation rate and income, the growth of financial services and communications, improvement in education, and reduction in infant mortality account for most of the marital fertility decline in 19th century Prussia. In 1875, rural and urban fertility were similar but by 1910, urban fertility was far lower than rural in part because the values of some of these variables changed more rapidly in the cities, and in part because some of these variables had stronger effects in urban settings.     

Social Differences in the Decline of Marital Reproduction in Rural Navarre (Spain)

The continued decline of marital fertility in Navarre (Spain) during the first few decades of the twentieth century was associated with an increase in life expectancy and greater survival to adulthood. This decline affected all social strata and all geographical regions, rural areas as well as cities. Nonetheless, the decline was not homogeneous. Some sectors of Navarrese society began the fertility transition earlier than others.Cross sectional analysis is presented for different years of diverse variables that could be related to the levels of marital fertility: level of urbanization, occupation of the father, level of religious devotion and political factors. Statistical evidence is presented that confirms the relationship of these variables to the levels of fertility.     

政府、雇主和家庭共担生育责任的探讨

人口再生产是社会生产的必要前提,为社会经济发展做出巨大贡献,为雇主/社会提供了充足劳动力,满足了家庭情感需求和家族延续的需要,政府、社会和家庭需要共担责任。我国经历了从国家和家庭共担到雇主和家庭分担主要生育责任的过程,目前政府分担生育责任依然不足,雇主服务支持不够,家庭中男性未充分发挥作用。要确立生育的社会价值,增强政府责任,建立全面覆盖的生育保障制度,不断提高保障水平;建立平衡工作—家庭的支持体系,男性分担更多责任。     

Teen Childbearing and Educational Attainment: A Comparison of Methods

This research examines the impact of teenage childbearing on secondary school completion, while focusing on the problem of causal ambiguity in the relationships among self-determined behaviours. Techniques for dealing with the teenage childbearing problem are discussed, and results from these methods are compared. Data from the High School and Beyond Study on young women (n = 5257) who were enrolled as sophomores in sample schools in February 1980 and who had not given birth before November 1980 are used. Results indicate that teen childbearing reduces the probability of completing high school by 8% to 10%. Some evidence suggests that programs that target reduction of teen childbearing in improving young women's education and subsequent economic and labor force outcomes.     

高知大龄未婚女性的婚恋问题浅析

在男女性别比居高不下。男性人口远远高于女性人口的当今中国,却出现了高知大龄未婚女性婚恋难问题,这一奇特的社会现象引起人们广泛的关注和热议。本文认为高知大龄未婚女性婚恋问题主要源于“结构性剩余”,在对高知大龄未婚女性婚恋难问题已有的多角度理论研究回顾的基础上．主要从人口与经济的视角对高知大龄未婚女性“结构性剩余”现象的原因进行深入发掘。最后提出一些解决问题的举措。     

试论时期总和生育率、终身生育率与政策生育率的关系

通过对总和生育率(TFR)、终身生育率(CFR)与政策生育率(PFR)的概念及相关数据分析,论证总和生育率与政策生育率是完全不同的概念,不可直接比较。在特定条件下TFR、CFR和政策生育率会产生差异,在一个国家生育水平下降的历史时期,TFR必然小于当年49岁组女性的CFR;"超生率"、"未婚率"、"未育率"和"不孕率"的变化,决定了政策生育率与终身生育率的差异。借鉴日本经济与人口发展相关数据,可以相信由平均初婚年龄推迟、女性有偶率下降导致的生育水平下降很可能成为对我国人口均衡发展的最大潜在威胁。因此,当前以及今后相当的时期内,我国的政策生育率应高于1.8。     

长白山生育文化的多元性研究

长白山地区在历史上是移民文化、民族文化、外来文化交汇的地区,各种文化互相影响、交汇,形成了当地独具特色的生育文化。在这种生育文化的影响下,长白山地区一直稳定于低生育水平上,少数民族的人口发展也成为全国典范。