Expected and Actual Family Size in Greece: 1983–1997

On the basis of data collected in the 1997 fertility study in theGreater Athens area, in which a sub-sample of women previouslyinterviewed in the 1983 National Fertility Survey wereinterviewed again, the validity of aggregate and individualfertility intentions is evaluated. The main finding is thatfertility intentions slightly overestimate ultimate family size.Moreover, higher expectations are associated with higher`transition rates' towards having children and to shorter birthintervals for all parities.     

Women's autonomy,women's status and fertility-related behavior in Zimbabwe

Women's household decision-making autonomy is a potentially important but less studied indicator of women's ability to control their fertility. Using a DHS sample of 3,701 married black African women from Zimbabwe, I look at women who have no say in major purchases, whether they should work outside the home,and the number of children. When men dominated all household decisions, women were less likely to approve of contraceptive use, discuss their desired number of children with their spouse, report ever use of a modern method of contraception, and to intend to use contraception in the future. However, women's decision-making autonomy was not associated with current modern contraceptive use. Women who had no decision-making autonomy had 0.26 more children than women who had some autonomy. These autonomy measures provide additional independent explanatory power of fertility-related behavior net of traditional measures of women's status such as education and labor force participation.     

Partnership and Parenthood in Post‐transitional Societies: Will Specters Be Exorcised?

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to reconsider partnership and parenthood in post-transitional societies from the viewpoint of sociology. As is well known, after the end of the Baby Boom, albeit with variations in the tempo and the level, a considerable decline in fertility has occurred in industrialized countries. Furthermore, this decline has occurred in tandem with the transformation of partnership such as an increase in the number of cohabited couples. The causes and effects of this decline in fertility have hitherto been studied by social scientists such as economists and demographers. Although the family has been one of the main research interests for sociologists for a long while, the changes in partnership and fertility behavior in developed countries have not been sufficiently argued from the perspective of sociological theory on family. In this article, we will initially compare and contrast two changes in fertility patterns: the first of these is the fertility decline that occurred around the latter half of the nineteenth century; the second is the change that has been observed in industrialized countries since the second half of the 1960s. We will then discuss the difference between economic and ideational approaches in the explanation of partnership and fertility changes. Finally, we will examine the convergence and the divergence theories on family change. This article will conclude with an emphasis on the importance of the middle-range theories.     

Women's Scientific Employment and Family Formation: A Longitudinal Perspective

We focus here on the retention of highly qualified women scientists in science‐based employment in England and Wales. Using linked Census records from the Longitudinal Study 1971–1991 we show that women's education and employment rates in science, engineering and technology increased somewhat, although some fields show persistently low representation. We then compare retention in employing women with health‐related degrees with that of women with degrees in science, engineering and technology, showing that the latter group has markedly lower retention rates. Those who stay on in science‐based employment have children later than other types of graduate and their rates of non‐motherhood are higher. Four‐fifths of women in health‐related occupations were mothers, compared to only two‐fifths in science, engineering and technology. Our findings have implications for policymakers who wish to make best use of the knowledge base: attention should be paid to retention, as well as the more usual focus on qualifications and recruitment. The findings also suggest the potential for institutionally based theories to explain why highly qualified women have such low retention rates in science‐based employment.     

The analysis of age-specific fertility patterns via logistic models

In this paper, we introduce logistic models to analyse fertility curves. The models are formulated as linear models of the log odds of fertility and are defined in terms of parameters that are interpreted as measures of level, location and shape of the fertility schedule. This parameterization is useful for the evaluation, and interpretation of fertility trends and projections of future period fertility. For a series of years, the proposed models admit a state-space formulation that allows a coherent joint estimation of parameters and forecasting. The main features of the models compared with other alternatives are the functional simplicity, the flexibility, and the interpretability of the parameters. These and other features are analysed in this paper using examples and theoretical results. Data from different countries are analysed, and to validate the logistic approach, we compare the goodness of fit of the new model against well-known alternatives; the analysis gives superior results in most developed countries.     

Family Changes in the Context of Lowest-Low Fertility: The Case of Japan

Abstract: Japan has currently one of the lowest-low fertility rates in the world. Low fertility in Japan is due to the extreme postponement of marriage and childbearing, and their weak recuperation in women in their 30s, as well as very low levels of cohabitation and extra-marital fertility. Both changing and unchanged aspects of families are related to lowest-low fertility in Japan. Although premarital sexual activities have increased, women's contraceptive initiative is very weak: they may be connected with weak partnership formation. "Parasite singles", "freeters", or "NEETs", probably related to weak family formation, have increased, but they may be connected with strong filial bondage derived from the traditional family system, i.e. Women have been normatively, educationally, and occupationally emancipated, but gender norms are currently divided in half among Japanese people, which may deter the revising of working conditions for women with children, leading to delaying family formation among working women. Lowest-low fertility conversely brings about family changes. Its direct effect is the increase of lifetime celibacy and childless couples, which may jeopardize the universality of families. Its indirect effect is through policy response to low fertility as well as labor shortages and population aging: recently, both family and labor policies have been strengthened to make it easier for working women to continue their jobs after marriage and childbirth, which might in turn promote family formation in Japan.     

Increasing Childlessness in Germany and Japan: Toward a Childless Society?

Abstract: This paper focuses on childlessness in Germany and Japan and its sociological meanings in family formation in postmodern societies. First, it shows the trends of fertility decline and increasing childlessness, and clarifies the similarities and differences in both countries, by comparing parity composition, educational attainment, and other socioeconomic correlates of childlessness. Second, using the data of attitudinal surveys, such as the 2003 Population Policy Acceptance Study (PPAS) in Germany and the 13th National Fertility Survey (JNFS; 2005) in Japan, the reasons for having no children are observed. Third, referring to the discussions of German scholars, it tries to explain the sociological meanings of childlessness and to describe the development toward a childless society (even if it's demographically not sustainable) as one of the possible consequences of the Second Demographic Transition. Important findings are as follows: (1) In Germany the fertility decline began early in the mid-1960s but in Japan later from mid-1970s so that the increase of childlessness has been a little delayed. The proportion of childless women in Western Germany increased to 28% for the 1967 cohort. In Japan, it has increased to 12.7% for the 1960 cohort, but is expected to reach 30% for the 1970 cohort. (2) The educational gap in childlessness is clearly observed in Germany; however, this is not so simple in Japan. Corresponding with the increase of childlessness, the desired number of children in average is declining. The emergence of a child-free culture is observed in Germany by PPAS, but not yet in Japan by JNFS. (3) Polarization may proceed further in both countries, between childless people and people with many children.     

生育文明与我国未来生育率控制

我国的生育率变化一直以来都与生育文明的发展有着密切的关系。深厚的传统生育文化支持着我国农业社会的高生育水平,这在历史上起到过一定的积极作用,但是庞大的人口数量越来越成为我国经济社会发展的包袱。我国现阶段生育率已经在计划生育政策的控制下,达到了一个较低的标准。但是,这种低生育水平还很不稳定,也不可避免的带来了一些社会问题。随着我国经济发展和社会转型,推进生育文明的发展将成为稳定低生育水平,实现适度人口规模的最好方法。     

Interpretation of Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Fundamental Family Planning Work at Grassroots Level by NHFPC

正On 2 July 2014,National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)issued Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Fundamental Family Planning Work at Grassroots Level,(hereinafter referred to as Guiding Opinions).The document is interpreted as follows.Necessity for Formulating Guiding Opinions The central government has emphasized for many times that family planning can only be strengthened but not weakened in the work of institutional reconstruction and adjustment and improvement of fertility policy.In order to     

中国人口分布的时空演化研究：直面社会与经济双重困扰

人口是建立社会与经济之间联系的中介变量,人口空间分布又是全球性问题。当代中国,移民作为城市化的结果,其受社会经济发展水平决定;在人口、经济和社会互动发展过程中,城市化则是人口城乡和区域空间分布演变的主要内容。在时间层面上,社会经济发展模式和演化内生于人口数量和结构转变;在空间视阈下,人口地域分布适宜性包括城乡和区域两方面内容。通过梳理相关文献,总结人口空间分布特征事实,发现时空演化规律具有重要的学术创新和实践指导价值。作为第一人口大国,谋求社会与经济稳定发展是解决人口问题的基础之基础,中国人口与发展再次行至十字路口,人口研究不能刻舟求剑;其不仅是重大学术性命题,更是社会、经济性实践难题。研究分析需要立足中国实情,贯穿全文的逻辑主线是人口转变和空间分布,主题是人口、社会和经济协调发展,目标是建构中国人口空间分布理论体系。