Coherent mortality forecasting by the weighted multilevel functional principal component approach

In human mortality modelling, if a population consists of several subpopulations it can be desirable to model their mortality rates simultaneously while taking into account the heterogeneity among them. The mortality forecasting methods tend to result in divergent forecasts for subpopulations when independence is assumed. However, under closely related social, economic and biological backgrounds, mortality patterns of these subpopulations are expected to be non-divergent in the future. In this article, we propose a new method for coherent modelling and forecasting of mortality rates for multiple subpopulations, in the sense of nondivergent life expectancy among subpopulations. The mortality rates of subpopulations are treated as multilevel functional data and a weighted multilevel functional principal component (wMFPCA) approach is proposed to model and forecast them. The proposed model is applied to sex-specific data for nine developed countries, and the results show that, in terms of overall forecasting accuracy, the model outperforms the independent model and the Product-Ratio model as well as the unweighted multilevel functional principal component approach.     

Linear scalar-on-surface random effects regression models

Many research fields increasingly involve analyzing data of a complex structure. Models investigating the dependence of a response on a predictor have moved beyond the ordinary scalar-on-vector regression. We propose a regression model for a scalar response and a surface (or a bivariate function) predictor. The predictor has a random component and the regression model falls in the framework of linear random effects models. We estimate the model parameters via maximizing the log-likelihood with the ECME (Expectation/Conditional Maximization Either) algorithm. We use the approach to analyze a data set where the response is the neuroticism score and the predictor is the resting-state brain function image. In the simulations we tried, the approach has better performance than two other approaches, a functional principal component regression approach and a smooth scalar-on-image regression approach.     

Uniform consistency rate of kNN regression estimation for functional time series data

In this paper, we investigate the k-nearest neighbours (kNN) estimation of nonparametric regression model for strong mixing functional time series data. More precisely, we establish the uniform almost complete convergence rate of the kNN estimator under some mild conditions. Furthermore, a simulation study and an empirical application to the real data analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) are carried out to illustrate the finite sample performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.     

Psychophysiological Reactivity in Child Sexual Abuse

Sexual abuse has physiological and emotional implications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the neurobiological sequels of childhood sexual trauma by monitoring physiological variables among sexually abused girls and women compared to controls. We assessed posttrauma and traumatic life events of 35 females sexually abused in their childhood (age range 7–51 years) and 25 control females (age range 7–54 years). Electroencephalography, frontalis electromyography, electrodermal activity, and heart rate parameters were recorded while watching sets of pictures representing neutral and trauma-suggestive stimuli. A minority of participants met the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder. Abused females displayed significant elevations in heart rate, electromyography, and electroencephalography while viewing allusive stimuli and elevated heart rate while viewing neutral stimuli. The dysfunctional regulation of the physiological stress system associated with child sexual abuse may endanger the victims with various stress and anxiety disorders.     

描述译学的语言学模式

始于20世纪70年代的描述翻译学,因其具有理论和应用双重属性,有助于翻译理论研究和实践研究之间的沟通.而系统功能语言学,作为一种基于人类学、社会学、符号学的现代语言学理论,与描述翻译学具有相通的语言观、系统观和功能观.由此,系统功能语言学的系统理论、功能理论、语境理论,能够为描述翻译学提供一种更为细致、有效的研究途径.     

农村集体公益性建设用地的价值诉求与认知分析

农村集体公益性建设用地对农村公共设施的完善及农民生活水平的提高具有无可代替的作用,然现行规范对其规定甚少,集体公益性建设用地本身构造不明、价值不清造成适用模糊的困境。应明确农村集体公益性建设用地以维护集体成员利益为核心,以土地资源优化利用为重点,在具体设定上暗含公私力量的平衡。农村集体公益性建设用地使用权的主体实际上是以农民集体为核心的多元混合主体,因自身的公益属性,致使部分权能受限,应以合目的性与合规划性对其流转进行限制。     

网络舆情评估EHA三维指标体系的构建

随着网络在我国的兴起和发展,网络舆情的评估已经成为评价和预警社会形势的重要指标.通过对现有舆情研究的调研和分析,得出由舆情要素、舆情热度和舆情活性3个一级指标、7个二级指标以及14个三级指标共同构建的网络舆情评估的EHA三维指标体系,并对各级指标给出了详尽的分析和阐述.     

The Tempo of Sexual Activity and Later Relationship Quality

Rapid sexual involvement may have adverse long‐term implications for relationship quality. This study examined the tempo of sexual intimacy and subsequent relationship quality in a sample of married and cohabiting men and women. Data come from the Marital and Relationship Survey, which provides information on nearly 600 low‐ to moderate‐income couples living with minor children. Over one third of respondents became sexually involved within the first month of the relationship. Bivariate results suggested that delaying sexual involvement was associated with higher relationship quality across several dimensions. The multivariate results indicated that the speed of entry into sexual relationships was negatively associated with marital quality, but only among women. The association between relationship tempo and relationship quality was largely driven by cohabitation. Cohabiting may result in poorer quality relationship because rapid sexual involvement early in the romantic relationship is associated with entrance into shared living.     

Mitigating the Impact of Functional Dominance in Cross‐Functional Process Improvement Teams

Manufacturing process improvement teams often draw upon cross‐functional expertise. However, teams dominated by a single or few functions often do not achieve the desired interdisciplinary learning and cooperation, which in turn could negatively affect the performance of that cross‐functional team. Through an empirical analysis of 149 manufacturing process improvement teams in six SIC industrial categories, we show that even after controlling for several factors such as team size, number of functions, gender diversity, ethnicity, number of management levels, and geographic dispersion of team members, psychological safety of work environment fully mediates the relationship between functional dominance and team performance. We also confirm that a team leader possessing high interpersonal justice mitigates the deficiency of dominated teams and improves team performance by fostering a psychologically safe work environment. Our recommendation therefore is that when a dominated team is unavoidable due to the needed skill sets or other organizational considerations, to ensure success it is imperative that the firm chooses a team leader who can promote psychological safety by being just, and who can effectively encourage input from all functional team members and give them objective feedback.