扩大中间阶层是构建和谐社会的必要条件

中间阶层实质上是一个经济地位、政治地位和社会地位等各方面介于上层精英阶层和下层大众阶层之间的、具有中等社会经济地位的阶层和群体的集合.扩大中间阶层是构建和谐社会的必要条件.通过运用财政税收政策,大力发展教育和科技,鼓励创业,建立顺畅的社会流动机制等方式壮大我国的中间阶层对促进构建社会主义和谐社会有重要的作用.     

"三元"说之宗宋及其诗学价值指向

"三元"说是陈衍针对今人强分唐宋诗与扬唐抑宋的诗学观所提出的诗学纠偏策略.它以三元皆盛之论,将唐宋诗并列,同时又立足于宋诗,特别以杜、韩、黄为重心,突出宋诗对唐诗的创变与突破,从而确立宋诗地位与特征,对扬唐抑宋诗学观进行纠偏.这一诗学之根本,不在纠缠于诗歌诗艺形式上的高下判别,而关注内容精神之追求.以提倡变风变雅、振兴诗教为旨归,寄寓着关注现实人生的重要的诗学思想.     

Continuity and change in work-life balance choices

This paper explores the ways in which the work-life balance choices made by heterosexual couples differ in different generations, how such choices are gendered, and the extent to which 'individualization' provides an adequate conceptualization of the effects of social change on heterosexual couples. It argues that processes of individualization need to be seen in the context of changing social institutions, and that it is the de-institutionalization of 'the family' and the life course that is leading to a de-gendering of work-life balance choices. The paper draws on findings from a restudy of the family and social change and a study of the gender dimensions of job insecurity both of which were carried out in the same geographical location. The studies provide evidence of generational change in work-life balance choices and increasing occupational differentiation between heterosexual partners. This leads to a situation where increasingly choices are made which blur gendered boundaries and which has been made possible by a process of de-institutionalization of the male breadwinner family. Our findings support the contention that processes of individualization are more apparent amongst younger than older generations and that, because of changes external to the family, there is more negotiation and pragmatism amongst younger generations about work-life choices.     

Making Sense of Organizational Change: Voices of Older Volunteers

The role of voluntary and community sector organizations in the delivery of public services is increasing and these changes bring new responsibilities and benefits to organizations that have the capacity to participate. There are concerns within the sector about the implications for citizenship and participation. The sector is highly dependent on volunteers yet little is known about how organizational change in response to new relationships with the statutory sector impact upon the commitment and well-being of people who volunteer. This paper addresses that gap in knowledge for older volunteers. Drawing upon collaborative research with a voluntary organization in the north of England, the authors explore the meanings and aspirations of volunteering for older people, and explain how and why changes associated with closer engagement with public service delivery and less grant dependency can be disempowering for them.

Neighborhood change from the bottom Up: What are the determinants of social distance between new and prior residents?

An important source of neighborhood change occurs when there is a turnover in the housing unit due to residential mobility and the new residents differ from the prior residents based on socio-demographic characteristics (what we term social distance). Nonetheless, research has typically not asked which characteristics explain transitions with higher social distance based on a number of demographic dimensions. We explore this question using American Housing Survey data from 1985 to 2007, and focus on instances in which the prior household moved out and is replaced by a new household. We focus on four key characteristics for explaining this social distance: the type of housing unit, the age of the housing unit, the length of residence of the exiting household, and the crime and social disorder in the neighborhood. We find that transitions in the oldest housing units and for the longest tenured residents result in the greatest amount of social distance between new and prior residents, implying that these transitions are particularly important for fostering neighborhood socio-demographic change. The results imply micro-mechanisms at the household level that might help explain net change at the neighborhood level.     

Churning races in Canada: Visible minority response change between 2006 and 2011

Why do most people have stable responses to census race questions, while some do not? Using linked Canadian data, we examine personal, social, and economic characteristics that predict response stability as White or as one of six large visible minority groups, versus a change in response to/from White or to/from another visible minority group. Response change rates in Canada are generally comparable to those in the US, UK, and New Zealand. Likely reflecting the centuries-old hegemony of Whites in these countries, White is the most stable response group in Canada as well as the US, UK, and New Zealand. Multiple-race response groups are among the newest and least stable response groups. Social statuses and experiences (mixed ethnic heritage, immigration status, and exposure to own-group members) are generally more predictive of race response stability and change than economic (income level and change in income) or personal statuses (education, age). This highlights the socially-constructed nature of race group boundaries. Joining and leaving a group are often predicted by the same status/characteristic and in the same direction, hinting that the status/characteristic adds complexity to the race-related experiences of constituents.     

Global Climate Emergency: after COP24, climate science,urgency, and the threat to humanity

ABSTRACT

This Special Editorial on the Climate Emergency makes the case that although we are living in the time of Global Climate Emergency we are not yet acting as if we are in an imminent crisis. The authors review key aspects of the institutional response and climate science over the past several decades and the role of the economic system in perpetuating inertia on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Humanity is now the primary influence on the planet, and events in and around COP24 are the latest reminder that we live in a pathological system. A political economy has rendered the UNFCCC process as yet a successful failure. Fundamental change is urgently required. The conclusions contain recommendations and a call to action now.     

Time‐change models for asymmetric processes

Many records in environmental sciences exhibit asymmetric trajectories. The physical mechanisms behind these records may lead for example to sample paths with different characteristics at high and low levels (up–down asymmetries) or in the ascending and descending phases leading to time irreversibility (front–back asymmetries). Such features are important for many applications, and there is a need for simple and tractable models that can reproduce them. In this paper, we explore original time‐change models where the clock is a stochastic process that depends on the observed trajectory. The ergodicity of the proposed model is established under general conditions, and this result is used to develop nonparametric estimation procedures based on the joint distribution of the process and its derivative. The methodology is illustrated on meteorological and oceanographic data sets. We show that, combined with a marginal transformation, the proposed methodology is able to reproduce important characteristics of the data set such as marginal distributions, up‐crossing intensity, and up–down and front–back asymmetries.     

Coherent mortality forecasting by the weighted multilevel functional principal component approach

In human mortality modelling, if a population consists of several subpopulations it can be desirable to model their mortality rates simultaneously while taking into account the heterogeneity among them. The mortality forecasting methods tend to result in divergent forecasts for subpopulations when independence is assumed. However, under closely related social, economic and biological backgrounds, mortality patterns of these subpopulations are expected to be non-divergent in the future. In this article, we propose a new method for coherent modelling and forecasting of mortality rates for multiple subpopulations, in the sense of nondivergent life expectancy among subpopulations. The mortality rates of subpopulations are treated as multilevel functional data and a weighted multilevel functional principal component (wMFPCA) approach is proposed to model and forecast them. The proposed model is applied to sex-specific data for nine developed countries, and the results show that, in terms of overall forecasting accuracy, the model outperforms the independent model and the Product-Ratio model as well as the unweighted multilevel functional principal component approach.     

Linear scalar-on-surface random effects regression models

Many research fields increasingly involve analyzing data of a complex structure. Models investigating the dependence of a response on a predictor have moved beyond the ordinary scalar-on-vector regression. We propose a regression model for a scalar response and a surface (or a bivariate function) predictor. The predictor has a random component and the regression model falls in the framework of linear random effects models. We estimate the model parameters via maximizing the log-likelihood with the ECME (Expectation/Conditional Maximization Either) algorithm. We use the approach to analyze a data set where the response is the neuroticism score and the predictor is the resting-state brain function image. In the simulations we tried, the approach has better performance than two other approaches, a functional principal component regression approach and a smooth scalar-on-image regression approach.