用伴随网络法系统求解网络多端口一阶灵敏度

本文提出用稀疏表格法建立多端口伴随同络混合参数矩阵,进而构成了一个有规则的矩阵关系式,可一次求取计算网络多端口一阶灵敏度所需要的支路变量信息。在此基础上,定义了一个矩阵循环乘概念,并给出了系统求解网络多端口输出相对每个元件参数变化的一阶灵敏度公式。     

混杂纤维混凝土抗弯冲击性能研究

研究了掺加异型塑钢纤维、铜纤维以及这两种纤维混杂的混凝土梁的抗弯冲击性能。测定了在不同纤维掺量下混凝土梁的初裂冲击次数、破坏冲击次数以及冲击能。试验结果表明：混掺纤维比单掺纤维显著提高了混凝土的冲击能和延性，但对初裂性能影响不大。     

On the Value of derivative evaluations and random walk suppression in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms

Two strategies that can potentially improve Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are to use derivative evaluations of the target density, and to suppress random walk behaviour in the chain. The use of one or both of these strategies has been investigated in a few specific applications, but neither is used routinely. We undertake a broader evaluation of these techniques, with a view to assessing their utility for routine use. In addition to comparing different algorithms, we also compare two different ways in which the algorithms can be applied to a multivariate target distribution. Specifically, the univariate version of an algorithm can be applied repeatedly to one-dimensional conditional distributions, or the multivariate version can be applied directly to the target distribution.     

原子轨道杂化态与非过渡元素的立体化学

本文提出公式化的方法确定分子的杂化轨道数,进而推断分子的杂化轨道类型,确定主族元素共价分子的成键情况和几何构型,并且探讨了影响杂化态的因素。     

一种预测轨道杂化类型的简便方法

根据用杂化轨道理论和价层电子对互斥理论预测和判断共价多原子分子或离子 (不包括配合物 )空间构型的原理 ,导出了一种用价层电子对数直接预测中心原子轨道杂化类型的简便方法     

兼职创业者“学中干”“干中学”内在机理---基于创业学习视角的扎根研究*

在创业失败率总是居高不下的事实面前,兼职创业具有分散风险、积累创业技能和经验的重要作用。从创业学习视角出发,运用扎根理论,对兼职创业过程展开探索性研究。研究发现：兼职创业“学中干”与“干中学”双重正效应是创业者维持兼职创业的重要原因之一;“学中干”体现为通过内向式学习获取工作特有信息和技能,降低外向式学习所需搜寻和机会成本,实现创业能力移植;“干中学”体现为通过外向式学习充分利用资源,开放性地获取创业知识,突破内向式学习中学习时间和知识来源局限,实现创业能力集成;创业能力移植和集成共同构成兼职创业能力;兼职意愿包含意愿的启动和维持,内部因素是意愿维持的关键。     

第三方物流参与限时蔬菜配送问题研究

根据我国第三方物流的发展现状,结合蔬菜运输企业的实际运营情况,建立一种有第三方物流企业参与的限时蔬菜配送模型。考虑配送成本及蔬菜配送的特殊性,对比有第三方物流企业参与的统一蔬菜配送与现阶段蔬菜配送的形式,采用RSG—GA混合算法对建立的模型进行求解。通过对比运算结果和运输时间的稳定性,分析第三方物流参与蔬菜配送问题的价值所在,探讨第三方物流在蔬菜配送问题中的影响及意义。     

贵金属期货价格预测方法及实证研究

本文融合了二次分解与极限学习机的优势,提出了VMD-Res.-EEMD-ELM贵金属期货价格预测模型,选择变分模态分解(VMD)作为主要的分解技术,生成模态分量序列(VMFi)和残差序列(Res.),采用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)对残差序列进行二次分解,并使用具有良好泛化能力的极限学习机(ELM)对各分量进行预测,最后叠加各模态分量和残差的预测值形成收益率的最终预测结果。所提出的模型不仅充分发挥了二次分解技术的优势,而且解决了传统变分模态分解组合预测模型未考虑残差影响因素的问题。实证研究表明,本文所提出的组合模型能够全面捕捉黄金、白银期货价格日收益率序列的特征,方向性预测准确率分别为83.33%和93.33%,误差指标MAE分别为0.15和0.11,经比较本文所提出的模型具有良好的预测性能。     

考虑促销因素的医药电商平台需求预测研究

医药电商平台需求预测涉及到药品自身属性及电商平台推出的各种促销活动,本文针对以上影响药品销量的因素提出了时间序列-机器学习组合模型对医药电商平台进行需求预测。传统研究促销因素的需求预测文献将促销阶段商品销量拆分为常规销量和促销增量的线性组合,本文首先拟合各药品促销阶段的常规销量,根据各药品常规销量时间序列数据及服用周期,使用SARIMA模型拟合药品的常规销量预测值,并将常规销量预测值与商品促销特征数据一同输入XGBoost模型进行集成学习预测。本文使用国内某医药电商平台真实销售数据测试组合模型的有效性,结果显示组合预测模型的预测效果相比其他三种传统预测模型更优。此外,本文验证了不同折扣力度下组合预测模型的有效性,以及促销变量在预测模型中的有效性,同时研究了数据共享策略在需求预测中的应用场景,结果显示预测模型在引入促销变量和采用数据共享策略后都能显著降低模型的预测误差。     

Reference model for implementing an MRP system in a highly diverse component and seasonal lean production environment

Companies are currently choosing to integrate logics and systems to achieve better solutions. These combinations also include companies striving to join the logic of material requirement planning (MRP) system with the systems of lean production. The purpose of this article was to design an MRP as part of the implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a company that produces agricultural implements, which has used the lean production system since 1998. This proposal is based on the innovation theory, theory networks, lean production systems, ERP systems and the hybrid production systems, which use both components and MRP systems, as concepts of lean production systems. The analytical approach of innovation networks enables verification of the links and relationships among the companies and departments of the same corporation. The analysis begins with the MRP implementation project carried out in a Brazilian metallurgical company and follows through the operationalisation of the MRP project, until its production stabilisation. The main point is that the MRP system should help the company's operations with regard to its effective agility to respond in time to demand fluctuations, facilitating the creation process and controlling the branch offices in other countries that use components produced in the matrix, hence ensuring more accurate estimates of stockpiles. Consequently, it presents the enterprise knowledge development organisational modelling methodology in order to represent further models (goals, actors and resources, business rules, business process and concepts) that should be included in this MRP implementation process for the new configuration of the production system.