Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.     

供电行业用户满意度模型构建及实证研究

在相关理论研究基础上,构建了供电行业用户满意度模型,模型数据采集于江苏省电力公司的800位客户,并采用SAS8．1统计软件包的CALIS功能模块对模型进行了验证分析。研究结果表明：用户期望对用户感知质量、感知价值和用户满意的影响不显著,故在模型中予以删除;企业形象对用户满意和用户忠诚的影响以间接为主,直接影响不显著;修正模型中5个内生隐变量R2的平均值为0．69,经综合考虑,修正后的模型有效可靠。最后,为供电行业提升客户满意度和忠诚度提出建议。     

失业背后的权力因素

以“经济高速增长下的高失业率”和“一些失业者不愿从事低薪工作”两个现象为切入点,从社会学的角度探讨失业背后的权力因素。在这两个现象的背后,是劳资之间权力的失衡:经营者能够利用不受约束的权力解雇工人,压低就业者的工资,压低到就业者不能接受的地步。因此,失业问题的解决不能仅仅停留在解决存量失业的层面,需要政府干预经营者的行为,从源头上控制失业。     

中华武术散打之局部力量与整体力量解读

散打之力量是散打运动中除运动技术等要素外,非常重要的另一要素,散打之力量在运动中表现出两个方面的应用,即散打之局部力量和整体力量;散打之局部力量和整体力量在比赛中交替展现,正是由于散打之局部力量和整体力量的不停变换使用及不同情况下各种力量共同作用,运动员才能在比赛中赢得胜利。散打之局部力量与整体力量的科学应用与训练不仅塑造了练习者完美的运动身形,而且培养了个人不凡的运动气质,是一项完美的体育运动。     

Utilizing Bayesian predictive power in clinical trial design

The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework.     

Security branding and digital narrations. Security issues representation on Twitter

In the contemporary multicentric world, sovereign states have to manage carefully the construction of their image, defining their role and aspirations. With the re-definition of the state centric politics, stories become relevant: communication is a form of power, and networked forms of communication are becoming progressively a way to conquer the transnational public spheres. Through strategic narratives of foreign politics, states try to set up the ‘tales’ of international affairs and foreign strategies, to suggest a world vision, a causal interpretation, determining frames that affect transnational actors’ position in the international environment. Sovereign states develop these kind of frame using tools and theories referred to the commercial branding tradition to promote and support their own policies and identity. We decided to investigate how that process is made through information diffusion on digital platforms.

In this work, it has been analyzed the content presented through Twitter posts by the Foreign Ministries accounts of four different States dissimilar for geopolitical positioning and security concerns (USA; Israel; France; Sweden), for a period of three months (9/1/2015-11/30/2015); leading to the identification of different models and characteristic patterns of self-representation.

The thematic content analysis, based on the identification of macrocategories and micro-issues, has led to the identification of different models and characteristic patterns of self-representation, determined by domestic vicissitudes, and has shown some regularities, caused by the branding vocation of autobiographical online contents.     

论20世纪70年代初国际石油权力结构的变迁——对“德黑兰协定”和“的黎波里协定”的考察

20世纪70年代的国际石油危机有着深厚的历史根源,它源于国际石油权力结构的急剧变革。60年代后期开始,随着国际石油市场日趋紧张,产油国的地位日益改善,它们从石油公司获得越来越多的石油权力,其中国际石油公司与产油国签订的"德黑兰协定"和"的黎波里协定"发挥了至关重要的作用,是产油国能够针对西方国家使用减产、禁运和提价等石油武器的前提条件。     

意识形态之争探赜

伴随着阶级和国家的产生,关于意识形态的争论从来没有停止过。意识形态之争的表象是话语权、信奉者和影响力、感召力的争夺;意识形态之争的根基源于意识形态的科学性、传播方式和经济基础;意识形态之争的实质归于阶级和国家利益的维护。当前,认清意识形态争论的表象、阐明意识形态争论的根基、揭示意识形态争论的本质对于我国主流意识形态的建设具有重要意义。     

论近代中国士人的首次西游书写

斌椿的日记《乘槎笔记》和诗集《海国胜游草》、《天外归帆草》突破了近代史书写的一贯"以西律中"的现代化话语模式。这一方面可以从满族/中国这一本土坐标看待近代中西交流史的这桩公案;另一方面也可以反思体用二元割裂的思考方式。     

奥巴马政府对朝政策的新理念及其走向

奥巴马政府上台后,其主要致力于应对金融危机和反恐战争.对朝政策上,其在"巧实力"外交理念的指导下,寻求在外交、经济、军事、政治、法律和文化等所有政策工具中选择正确的工具或组合.针对朝核问题的敏感性和脆弱性,奥巴马政府倾向于"冷处理",继而"多管齐下",在合作外交的框架内展开更加灵活的外交活动,促使朝鲜重返六方会谈,继续以对话方式处理相关问题,不过美国也适度增强了对朝鲜的威慑力量,奥巴马政府仍对美朝关系正常化持一种谨慎态度.