局部战争期间金融机构流动性危机研究

金融机构的流动性是关系金融体系安全的最重要的因素。新中国成立以来正是由于国家明确的和隐含的存款保险制度,使得我国不良资产居高不下的金融机构没有爆发流动性危机,维持了我国金融体系的稳定性。在局部战争的条件下,我国金融机构将面临三类流动性危机:以公众信心为诱因的第一类流动性危机、以金融机构重大的资产损失为诱因的第二类流动性危机和以网络系统和数据库系统遭受重创为诱因的第三类流动性危机。这三类流动性危机的爆发将会严重危及我国金融体系的稳定性,进而威胁到战争时期我国的经济安全,因此要防范局部战争时期金融机构的流动性危机的发生和蔓延,我们对此提出了相应的政策建议。     

政府信用缺失的成因与对策研究

当前政府信用缺失问题是由于政治体制改革不完善 ,公务员队伍建设滞后和法纪惩戒措施不完备等原因造成的。必须充分认识政府信用建设的重要意义 ,积极稳妥地推进政治体制改革 ,推进政务公开和建立科学完善的集体决策与监督机制 ,重塑政府信用 ,打造诚信政府     

Risk Perception,Risk Attitude,and Decision: A Rank-Dependent Analysis

The classical expected utility model of decision under risk has been criticized from an experimental point of view (Allais’ paradox) as well as for its restrictive lack of explanatory power. The Rank-Dependent Expected Utility model answers some of these criticisms. The decision maker is characterized by two functions: a utility function on consequences measuring preferences over sure outcomes and a probability weighting function measuring the subjective weighting of probabilities. The model allows for more diversified types of behavior: it is consistent with the behavior revealed by the Allais paradox; the decision maker could dislike risk (prefer its expectation to any lottery) without necessarily avoiding any increase in risk; diminishing marginal utility may coexist with “weak” risk-seeking attitudes; decision makers with the same utility function may differ in their choices between lotteries when they have different probability weighting functions; furthermore, the same decision maker may have different, context-dependent, subjective beliefs on events.     

Pet grief: when is non‐human life grievable?

This study explores how pet owners grieve their pets and view their pets' transience. Drawing on Butler's notion of the differential allocation of grievability, I have analysed interviews with eighteen pet owners. Butler argues that grievability is made possible by a normative framework which allows for some human or human‐like lives to be grieved, while other lives are rendered ‘lose‐able’. All the interviewed pet owners say that they are capable of grieving a non‐human animal, but analysis suggests that they make their pets grievable and ungrievable by turns. I argue that by maintaining this ambivalence, the interviewees negotiate pets' inclusion in a human moral community while simultaneously defending human exceptionalism. The article concludes with a discussion of pet grief as a potentially destabilizing emotion. I suggest that grieving beings on the border between grievable human and lose‐able animal – ‘werewolves’ according to Giorgio Agamben – may be a powerful way of challenging normative frameworks which arbitrarily render some human and non‐human lives lose‐able.     

区域社会生态的衰变与荒政制度的异化——近代皖北地区“工赈”制度初探(1840-1911)

近代皖北地区由于传统官方统治失位、特殊地缘因素、文教事业衰败等的影响,区域社会生态加速衰变。在这一大的时代背景下,传统"工赈"制度的多元化功能在皖北地区异化为单一的水利建设。由于地方士绅精英在民间"工赈"中的动员、组织职责严重失责,因而在淡化"工赈"效果的同时也进一步导致了整个皖北地区社会生态的衰败。     

Intergenerational Trauma Among Substance-Using Native American,Latina, and White Mothers Living in the Southwestern United States

The high rates of traumatic experiences reported by women who use alcohol and drugs have been documented in the literature. This study builds on the existing literature by examining the experiences of intergenerational family loss trauma among 226 mothering female substance users from 3 racial and ethnic groups: Native American (26.5%), Latina (24.8%), and White (48.7%). Demographic information, substance use, intergenerational exposure to mothering, and other family traumatic losses were compared across racial and ethnic groups. Data indicate both similarities and significant differences in demographic characteristics, type of drug use, and traumatic family loss experiences—with a higher percentage of Native American women reporting instances of intergenerational family loss. The extent of intergenerational family traumatic loss among women who use substances is discussed, along with social policies that perpetuate such loss. Recommendations for effectively intervening at the individual, family, and policy levels are presented.     

A note on estimating regression coefficients with missing data

In this note, we consider the problem of estimating regression coefficients when there are missing observations of some explanatory variables. Following Dagenais (1973), Gourieroux and Monfort (1981), and Conniffe (1983a, 1983b), we assume auxiliary relationships exist among explanatory varibles. Several estimatprs and their interrelationships are discussed. We begin with the model of Gourieroux and

Monfort (1981)     

Bayesian multivariate normal analysis with a wishart prior

This paper considers the Bayesian analysis of the multivariate normal distribution when its covariance matrix has a Wishart prior density under the assumption of a multivariate quadratic loss function. New flexible marginal posterior distributions of the mean μ and of the covariance matrix Σ are developed and univariate cases with graphical representations are given.     

Comparing Predictive Accuracy

We propose and evaluate explicit tests of the null hypothesis of no difference in the accuracy of two competing forecasts. In contrast to previously developed tests, a wide variety of accuracy measures can be used (in particular, the loss of function need not be quadratic and need not even be symmetric), and forecast errors can be non-Gaussian, nonzero mean, serially correlated, and contemporaneously correlated. Asymptotic and exact finite-sample tests are proposed, evaluated, and illustrated.     

中国文化背景下对丧失的理解与处理

丧失是人类生命历程中最为深重的情感,在不同的文化背景下,人们对丧失与哀伤有着不同的言说,每个个体对丧失的理解不同,就意味着对生命意义的理解不同,也意味着面对丧失与哀伤的方式不同。本文通过对几个有关丧失的个案,讨论了如何在中国文化容器下安放哀伤与哀悼,促进当事人的稳定化。