我国彩票业发展中的问题及其对策

目前 ,彩票在我国得到了快速的发展 ,文章在分析我国发行彩票有利条件的基础上 ,指出了我国彩票业发展中存在各地擅自发行彩票、管理法规不健全、彩票发行成本过高以及彩票公益性资金使用效益不高、违规违纪较严重等问题 ,并就发展我国彩票业提出了若干建议     

关于体育彩票的一点思考

我国体育彩票的发行已有6年,发行额从当初10亿元增加到现在的每年40亿元,可以说体育彩票随着体育事业改革的深入,也在逐步走向正规。本文从体育彩票的属性、作用、管理等方面谈一点自己的看法。     

非均衡共变与内控冲击：福彩市场周期波动互谱分析

近年来,中国福彩市场出现不稳定波动现象。因相关理论研究缺乏,故发行机构无法准确把握运行规律而出现决策失灵。运用经过约束条件检验的互谱密度函数频域分析法测度1987—2009年间的GDP、城镇居民可支配收入、农村居民人均纯收入、体育彩票发行额及CPI这5个经济变量波动对福利彩票发行额周期波动的影响,结果发现：短期内福利彩票发行额只与GDP存在较强周期共变关系,相干谱系数是0.71;5个经济变量的互谱增益贡献比都在1%以下;体育彩票发行额以增量方式发挥短期非均衡冲击作用,比福彩发行额滞后3个月。     

中国彩票业的发展及其政府规制

近年来,中国彩票业得到了快速发展。根据多种预测中国彩票业快速发展趋势将还会持续下去。为推动中国彩票业的长远发展,必须进一步强化政府规制,以解决当前彩票行销监管中的一系列问题,确保彩票业发展的公益目标,限制其消极影响。      

Further Effects of Lottery Odds on Responding

Lotteries (i.e., probabilistic bonus contingencies) are an established intervention in Organizational Behavior Management. Although common, there are many permutations of lotteries used in literature and they are often combined with other interventions. One key variable that may influence the effectiveness of lotteries are the odds that the lottery will pay out to those who earn entry. The current investigation evaluated a lottery intervention with varied payout chances (25%, 12%, 6%, or 3%). A 6% chance of winning was the lowest odds of winning where responding was reliably maintained across two participants. Implications of these results and future direction for research are discussed below.     

Long Cheap Talk

With cheap talk, more can be achieved by long conversations than by a single message—even when one side is strictly better informed than the other. (“Cheap talk” means plain conversation—unmediated, nonbinding, and payoff‐irrelevant.) This work characterizes the equilibrium payoffs for all two‐person games in which one side is better informed than the other and cheap talk is permitted.     

Robust Predictions in Games With Incomplete Information

We analyze games of incomplete information and offer equilibrium predictions that are valid for, and in this sense robust to, all possible private information structures that the agents may have. The set of outcomes that can arise in equilibrium for some information structure is equal to the set of Bayes correlated equilibria. We completely characterize the set of Bayes correlated equilibria in a class of games with quadratic payoffs and normally distributed uncertainty in terms of restrictions on the first and second moments of the equilibrium action–state distribution. We derive exact bounds on how prior knowledge about the private information refines the set of equilibrium predictions. We consider information sharing among firms under demand uncertainty and find new optimal information policies via the Bayes correlated equilibria. We also reverse the perspective and investigate the identification problem under concerns for robustness to private information. The presence of private information leads to set rather than point identification of the structural parameters of the game.     

A Note on the Equilibrium Existence Problem in Discontinuous Games

In this note, we prove an equilibrium existence theorem for games with discontinuous payoffs and convex and compact strategy spaces. It generalizes the classical result of Reny (1999), as well as the recent paper of McLennan, Monteiro, and Tourky (2011). Our conditions are simple and easy to verify. Importantly, examples of spatial location models show that our conditions allow for economically meaningful payoff discontinuities, that are not covered by other conditions in the literature.     

The Use of the Performance Diagnostic Checklist to Guide Intervention Selection in an Independently Owned Coffee Shop

Abstract

The utility of the Performance Diagnostic Checklist (PDC) (Austin, 2000) as an assessment tool to design an intervention for increasing maintenance tasks in an independently owned coffee shop was examined. The PDC, which was administered to four employees, identified a lack of appropriate antecedents and consequences as areas in need of intervention. Based on the results of the PDC, task clarification and a lottery were implemented in a multiple baseline across tasks design to increase employees' completion of maintenance tasks. The results for task group 1 yielded baseline and intervention means of 44% and 86%, respectively. The results for task group 2 yielded baseline and intervention means of 32% and 67%, respectively. A social validity measure indicated that employees thought that the appearance of the shop had improved, believed the changes helped to improve customer satisfaction, and claimed that the new procedures made their job easier. Overall, results suggest that the PDC can be an effective assessment tool for identifying and subsequently targeting specific areas of improvement within an organization.     

What drives lottery demand? Evidence from China's lottery practice

As governments draw increasing revenues from the lottery industry, it has become academically important, as well as for policy purposes, to better understand the factors that can explain lottery purchase decisions. The traditional literature uses either the expected return of each lottery ticket (effective price approach) or the jackpot size (jackpot approach) to explain the variation in lottery demand. In this article, we examine these two factors by exploiting a unique lottery game set-up in lottery practice in China. This lottery game is similar to lotteries in other countries except that there is a cap policy on the grand prize, which limits the reward of each jackpot winner. We show that this complex cap policy actually causes both the lottery effective price and the jackpot size to remain almost fixed for the majority of the time while lottery demand significantly fluctuates. The lack of variation suggests that, in China's practice, neither the effective price nor the jackpot size can explain the observed variation in lottery sales. Instead, we find that the size of the lottery rollover fits well in explaining the variation in lottery demand.