Exact and approximate runs distributions

Let R = R_n denote the total (and unconditional) number of runs of successes or failures in a sequence of n Bernoulll (p) trials, where p is assumed to be known throughout. The exact distribution of R is related to a convolution of two negative binomial random variables with parameters p and q (=1-p). Using the representation of R as the sum of 1 - dependent indicators, a Berry - Esséen theorem is derived; the obtained rate of sup norm convergence is O(n^-½). This yields an unconditional version of the classical result of Wald and Wolfowitz (1940). The Stein - Chen method for m - dependent random variables is used, together with a suitable coupling, to prove a Poisson limit theorem for R. but with the limiting support set being the set of odd integers, Total variation error bounds (of order O(p) are found for the last result. Applications are indicated.     

A Note on Criterion-Robust Optimal Designs for Model Discrimination and Parameter Estimation in Polynomial Regression Models

Consider the problem of discriminating between the polynomial regression models on [?1, 1] and estimating parameters in the models. Zen and Tsai (2002 Zen , M. M. , Tsai , M. H. ( 2002 ). Some criterion-robust optimal designs for the dual problem of model discrimination and parameter estimation . Sankhya Ind. J. Statist. 64 : (Series B, Pt. 3) : 322 – 338 . [Google Scholar]) proposed a multiple-objective optimality criterion, M _γ-criterion, which uses weight γ (0 ≤ γ ≤ 1) for model discrimination and α = β = (1 ? γ)/2 for parameter estimation in each model. In this article, we generalize it to a wider setup with different values of α and β. For instance, α = 2 β suggests that the “smaller” model is more likely to be the true model. Using similar techniques, the corresponding criterion-robust optimal design is investigated. A study for the original criterion-robust optimal design with α = β, through M-efficiency, shows that it is good enough for any wider setup.     

序跋:透析京派的一个副文本视角

京派序跋作为副文本,在内容上,一面指向书里边,一面指向书外边,京派诸多方面皆在其中有所反映。结合热拉尔·热奈特副文本理论,京派序跋研究,可以从四个方面进行叙述:作家文事交往的见证;作家思想历程的载体;深度批评的实践篇章;文学论争的在场语域。京派序跋,为深化京派研究提供了一个极佳的副文本视角。     

加拿大法语的词汇规范

加拿大法语的词汇规范引起了当今众多专家学者的激烈争论。本文回顾了加拿大法语规范化的历史,分析了魁北克人和某些法国辞书对加拿大法语特有的表达方式所持的态度,在此基础上,提出了选择加拿大法语特有的方言词语时可遵循的标准。     

中国传媒变迁负面效应的一个理论解说——政府、市场与社会之非均衡模型与媒体市场化改革

对中国传媒变迁过程中诸多负面效应产生的原因进行了理论解说,认为媒介低俗化等负面效应的产生与市场化改革虽然有着高度相关性,但市场化改革并不必然带来传媒的低俗化现象,这是一个尤其需要澄清的问题。国家(政府)、市场与社会三者之间的动态均衡,是确保市场有序运行的前提条件。当今中国政府、市场与社会之关系表现为一种非均衡的状态,这是中国媒介变迁过程中诸多负面效应产生的结构性根源。     

TAR模型加权秩估计及其性质讨论

秩估计是上个世纪60年代逐渐兴起的一种非参数方法,由于它具有稳健性等特征,从而得到较为广泛的应用。本文主要讨论了TAR模型随机加权秩估计及其性质问题,证明了基于一般计分函数的线性秩统计量关于回归参数的渐近一致线性性。本文讨论的建立在计分规则基础上的秩估计方法,虽然以TAR模型为对象,但其基本原理同样可以应用到其他非线性模型的参数估计中。