Estimation and identification considerations for the multiconsequence intervention model

A General Multiconsequence Intervention Model class that describes the simultaneous occurrence of a change in the process mean and covariance structure is introduced. When the covariance change is negligible, this model class reduces to intervention models described by Box and Tiao (1975). Maximum Likelihood Estimators for the parameters of the multiconsequence model class are developed for various important modeling situations that result from different a priori information about the form of the mean shift function form and the model parameters. As a consequence of these estimation results, an identification procedure for determining an appropriate dynamic mean shift form is suggested. The necessary hypothesis tests and corresponding confidence intervals.     

Estimation of Pr( x<y ) in the exponential case with common location parameter

This paper considers the problem of estimating the probability P = Pr(X < Y) when X and Y are independent exponential random variables with unequal scale parameters and a common location parameter. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of P is obtained. The asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained and then the asymptotic equivalence of the two estimators is established. Performance of the two estimators for moderate sample sizes is studied by Monte Carlo simulation. An approximate interval estimator is also obtained.     

Minimum distance estimators in extreme value distributions

We define minimum distance estimators for the parameters of the extreme value distribution G_o based on the Cramer-von-Mises distance. These estimators are rather robust and consistent, but asymptotically less efficient than the maximum likelihood estimators which are not robust. A small simulation study for finite sample size show that under G_o the finite efficiency of the minimum distance estimators is rather similar to the maximum likelihood ones.     

超越二元:学界对1990年代文学理论和批评的再现

从文化介入、学术化批评和论争等三方面梳理学界对1990年代文学理论和批评的再现,并对其中折射出的当下之理论话语、认知经验和研究范式进行反思性考察,可以看到,再现的意义外在于再现本身.2004年以后的再现表征了学界超越二元模式,从时间、空间和立场上对理论的历史语境做出的回应.     

Experimentation order in factorial designs: new findings

Under some very reasonable hypotheses, it becomes evident that randomizing the run order of a factorial experiment does not always neutralize the effect of undesirable factors. Yet, these factors do have an influence on the response, depending on the order in which the experiments are conducted. On the other hand, changing the factor levels is many times costly; therefore it is not reasonable to leave to chance the number of changes necessary. For this reason, run orders that offer the minimum number of factor level changes and at the same time minimize the possible influence of undesirable factors on the experimentation have been sought. Sequences which are known to produce the desired properties in designs with 8 and 16 experiments can be found in the literature. In this paper, we provide the best possible sequences for designs with 32 experiments, as well as sequences that offer excellent properties for designs with 64 and 128 experiments. The method used to find them is based on a mixture of algorithmic searches and an augmentation of smaller designs.     

Estimating Archimedean Copulas in High Dimensions

Abstract. This article presents a novel estimation procedure for high‐dimensional Archimedean copulas. In contrast to maximum likelihood estimation, the method presented here does not require derivatives of the Archimedean generator. This is computationally advantageous for high‐dimensional Archimedean copulas in which higher‐order derivatives are needed but are often difficult to obtain. Our procedure is based on a parameter‐dependent transformation of the underlying random variables to a one‐dimensional distribution where a minimum‐distance method is applied. We show strong consistency of the resulting minimum‐distance estimators to the case of known margins as well as to the case of unknown margins when pseudo‐observations are used. Moreover, we conduct a simulation comparing the performance of the proposed estimation procedure with the well‐known maximum likelihood approach according to bias and standard deviation.     

基于消费支出比例的最低生活保障线研究

消费支出比例法具有经济分享、计算简单、调整方便、易于操作的优势,比较适合我国当前的国情。分析发现,中心城市的替代率可以定在0.2～0.35间,地市级城市可以定在0.2～0.4间。农村地区目前不适合采用消费支出比例法计算低保标准。消费支出比例法计算低保标准具有自动调整特征。若低保标准和当地人均消费支出的比例关系在一年内发生变化,第二年将自动调整。现有条件下低保标准的临时价格补贴可以盯住物价,当CPI连续3个月上涨达到或超过3%时可启动临时价格补贴机制。     

The Mentoring FAN: A Promising Approach to Enhancing Attunement within the Mentoring System

ABSTRACT

Youth mentoring is a popular tool in positive youth development, with most programs utilizing a model through which youth and non-parental adults are “matched.” Using an adaptation of the Facilitating Attuned Interactions framework, this study sought to explore the effectiveness of the Mentoring FAN in enhancing interpersonal attunement among mentoring staff at two youth mentoring programs in the U.S. Upon completion of the Mentoring FAN training, quantitative (n = 28) and qualitative (n = 15) data were collected from program staff at both sites. Open-ended data from a subset of mentors (n = 27) was also gathered. Results revealed that mentoring staff experienced significant increases in empathy following the Mentoring FAN intervention. Participant interviews revealed increased attunement, increased listening ability, and increased collaboration in the supervisory relationship. Findings support the continued delivery and rigorous testing of Mentoring FAN training, with great promise for enhancing attunement across the mentoring system as a means of strengthening the relationships so critical to this intervention. The study also has important implications for the development of mentor support practices within mentoring organizations, as well as policies designed to meet the needs of youth served by mentoring programs in the U.S.     

Sí, Yo Puedo Curricula and Police Departments: Educating Immigrant Latinas

ABSTRACT

Immigrant Latinas experiencing incidences of interpersonal violence require services from police departments. In a mixed-methods study using a culturally specific curriculum, Si, Yo Puedo, designed to foster self-esteem and provide education on interpersonal violence and healthy relationships, two groups (n = 14) were conducted in 2015 at a precinct in a midwestern state. This group-format curriculum is a 2-hour, topic-specific educational program, conducted in Spanish, offered in 11 weeks. Participants reported an increase in self-esteem and knowledge of interpersonal violence after completing the program. Findings implicate this curriculum as a suitable service tool for police departments working with immigrant Latinas.