最低收购价政策对小麦市场价格波动影响的实证分析

为了估计最低收购价政策对小麦市场价格波动的直接影响,利用2009年1月4日至2016年12月30日小麦现货与期货价格日数据,通过将政策作为虚拟变量引入GARCH模型,实证研究政策对平抑小麦期现货价格波动的作用,并从政策执行区和非执行区的视角比较政策在不同地区维护小麦市场价格稳定方面的效果,对模型结果和价格传导路径进行验证和分析。结果表明,政策对小麦期现货价格波动产生了明显的影响,能够显著降低小麦现货市场的波动程度,并通过期现货市场间的联系对期货市场产生影响,但政策对期货价格波动的作用方向则相反;政策在平抑小麦价格波动方面的效果具有空间上的溢出效应,通过区域间的市场联系从执行区传导到非执行区,导致非执行区价格波动程度的下降。     

东中西部地区农村居民收入比较研究

对我国东中西部地区农村居民人均纯收入总量及来源结构进行分析后发现,1999年中央实施西部大开发战略以来,东中西部地区之间的差距不仅没有缩小,反而呈扩大之势。从战略的高度讲,缩小区域农村之间差距主要应采取如下一些对策:以财政投资为主,着力普及农村十二年义务教育,重点发展农村职业技术教育;以“丰”字型的城市经济发展战略为轴心,加快农村剩余劳动力向城市转移的步伐;以中央财政为主,有计划分步骤地在中西部地区建立社会保障制度;以农业产业化为龙头,加快中西部地区非农产业发展;以增加农民收入为切入点,深化中西部地区农村税费改革;以统筹城乡发展为基调,走城乡协调发展的道路。     

关于国民收入随机模型的广义最小方差控制

基于Astrom随机动态模型,讨论了非最小相位经济系统的控制问题.应用广义最小方差控制方法设计出自发投资的调控策略.通过实例表明,国民收入在控制策略作用下波动幅度最小,这是促进经济增长良性循环的重要前提.     

当前社会养老保险工作中存在的问题及解决的对策

当前我国已经在全国范围内基本建立了以社会保险、救灾救济为重点,以城镇职工基本养老保险、基本医疗保险、失业保险、工伤保险、生育保险、城乡居民最低生活保障等为主要内容的社会保障体系。但是,由于我国各项社会保障制度建立时间还不长,体系尚不完善,保障水平还比较底,存在个别困难职工参保困难、养老保险政策不完善、个别居民参保热情不高、城乡居民养老保险起点低等问题。为此,应当采取如下措施,进一步完善现行社会养老保险制度：建立广范围、多层次的社会养老保险体系;进一步提高城乡居民参加养老保险的意识;继续完善现行的社会养老保险体制;不断提高社会养老保险队伍的整体素质;积极探索新形势下社会养老保险的新途径。     

Hotelling模型再探讨

文章修改Hotelling模型的基本假定,假定厂商边际生产成本为正,交通成本由消费者负担,厂商区位可以为内生变量,也可以为外生变量,在此假定前提下,分析厂商的最优的区位—价格策略,以探讨最大差异化原则或者最小差异化原则何时成立,或者不成立。     

Declining inter-industry wage dispersion in the US

Industrial effects have long been significant factors in wage inequality. Previous research indicates that wage differentials across industries were increasing through the mid 1980s. Using more recent data, however, we find that the level of inter-industry wage dispersion declined by 36% from 1986 to 2002 despite the continued trend towards increasing inequality in the labor force. This decline in inter-industry wage dispersion is evident across gender and educational groups. Using multilevel growth curve models, our multivariate results indicate that the decline is only weakly related to industrial changes in education, occupation or even productivity despite the fact that the latter variable had been a critical factor in the prior period. Indicators of globalization and downsizing also do not appear to explain this decline. For the more recent period, the most important factors associated with the narrowing of inter-industry wage dispersion are reduced unionization rates and the higher proportion of casual workers. We interpret these results as suggesting that firms may now be less economically obliged to pass on a portion of their rents to broad groups of workers and may instead be engaged in more idiosyncratic processes of negotiation with individual workers based on micro-level sources of bargaining power.     

Efficiency Wages,Productivity and Simultaneity: A Meta-Regression Analysis

This study reports a meta-analysis of 75 estimates of the efficiency-wage effect. It reveals a strong efficiency-wage effect that depends upon whether researchers control for potential simultaneity between wages and productivity. Studies that control for simultaneity tend to report stronger effects. Clear evidence of publication selection is also found. E24, J30.

Care in a Time of Austerity: the Electronic Monitoring of Homecare Workers’ Time

Austerity places intense pressures on labour costs in paid care. In the UK, electronic monitoring technology has been introduced to record (and materially reduce) the working time and wages of homecare workers. Based on empirical findings, we show that, in a ‘time of austerity’, care is reductively constructed as a consumption of time. Service users are constructed as needy, greedy, time‐consumers and homecare workers as resource‐wasting time‐takers. We point to austerity as a temporal ideology aimed at persuading populations that individual deprivation in the present moment, self‐sacrifice and the suppression of personal need in the here and now is a necessary requirement to underpin a more secure national future. Accordingly, women in low‐waged care work are required to eschew a rights‐bearing, present‐tense identity and are assumed willing to suppress their entitlements to lawful wages as a sacrifice to the future. By transforming our understandings of ‘care’ into those of ‘time consumption’, and by emphasizing the virtue of present‐tense deprivation, a politics of austerity appears to justify time‐monitoring in care provision and the rationing of homecare workers’ pay.     

Estimation of P{X < Y} for geometric—exponential model based on complete and censored samples

This article deals with the estimation of R = P{X < Y}, where X and Y are independent random variables from geometric and exponential distribution, respectively. For complete samples, the MLE of R, its asymptotic distribution, and confidence interval based on it are obtained. The procedure for deriving bootstrap-p confidence interval is presented. The UMVUE of R and UMVUE of its variance are derived. The Bayes estimator of R is investigated and its Lindley's approximation is obtained. A simulation study is performed in order to compare these estimators. Finally, all point estimators for right censored sample from the exponential distribution, are obtained.     

Generalized minimum aberration mixed-level orthogonal arrays: A general approach based on sequential integer quadratically constrained quadratic programming

Orthogonal fractional factorial designs and in particular orthogonal arrays (OAs) are frequently used in many fields of application, including medicine, engineering, and agriculture. In this article, we present a methodology and an algorithm to find an OA, of given size and strength, which satisfies the generalized minimum aberration criterion. The methodology is based on the joint use of polynomial counting functions, complex coding of levels, and algorithms for quadratic optimization and puts no restriction on the number of levels of each factor.