论概率安全评价中的组织风险因素

核电站组织风险已经成为核电站安全运行重要的影响因素,在概率安全评价中考虑组织风险因素是核电安全研究的重要课题。文章在建立组织风险因素与PSA之间转换的概念框架的基础上,对组织风险因素进行分类。分类后的组织风险因素受人员行为形成因子的影响,其影响在人因可靠性分析中进行分析。计算和评估这些人员行为形成因子对于事故后操纵员的影响可以计算组织因素对核电站安全的影响。     

基于发展新理念的粮食类家庭农场成长绩效测评研究

基于发展新理念对粮食类家庭农场成长绩效的评价指标进行理论遴选后,借助专家评审和鉴别力分析进行指标筛选,构建了具有较高信度和效度的评价指标体系。以华北平原五省的453户粮食类家庭农场为样本,采用AHP-模糊综合评价模型,对指标体系做了应用研究。结果表明：粮食类家庭农场成长绩效虽在总体上处于中等偏上水平,但个体间存在一定的成长绩效差异;经济绩效整体表现良好,创新绩效却较低。因此,应引导粮食类家庭农场平衡性成长、制定精准扶持方略和建立成长绩效监测体系。     

新型农业经营主体的经营绩效与差异分析——基于农村固定观察点的数据调查

新型农业经营主体的经营绩效关系到其可持续发展。采用农村固定观察点对我国各省区新型农业经营主体的调查数据,运用随机前沿分析法,对不同类型的经营主体的经营绩效进行分析,并进一步分析新型农业经营主体的差异性。结果表明：相比小农户而言,新型农业经营主体的经营绩效相对较高,但是其平均绩效还有很大的改善空间;新型农业经营主体面临融资难和人才缺乏的问题,且该问题在农民专业合作社中最为突出;我国家庭农场的经营绩效在三种新型农业经营主体中是最高的,其次是农业（龙头）企业,最后是农民专业合作社。对此,提出应完善土地“三权分置”机制,实现新型农业经营主体的规模化生产,进一步解决其融资难和人才缺乏的问题,加大政策扶持力度等建议。     

二元学习与创新绩效的作用机制——组织内部协作网络的调节作用

组织学习是驱动企业创新、实现技术追赶与超越追赶的关键因素,如何合理组织企业的利用式和探索式学习是企业构建研发体系的关键问题。学界对二元学习是否有利于企业的创新绩效存在截然不同的观点。同时,组织内部的情境因素是影响组织二元学习和创新绩效关系的最根本因素,组织内部研发协作网络是二元学习的重要载体。基于美国半导体行业企业十年间的专利数据,实证研究发现,不同维度的二元学习对企业创新绩效具有不同的影响,联合二元学习能够积极影响企业的创新绩效,平衡二元学习则会降低企业的创新绩效;内部研发协作网络密度在二元学习和创新绩效的关系中具有显著的调节作用,企业的内部协作网络密度越高,联合二元学习对企业创新绩效的积极影响越弱,平衡二元学习对创新绩效的负影响则加剧。     

Sensitivity,uncertainty, and decision analyses in the prioritization of research

The evaluation of hazards from complex, large scale, technologically advanced systems often requires the construction of computer implemented mathematical models. These models are used to evaluate the safety of the systems and to evaluate the consequences of modifications to the systems. These evaluations, however, are normally surrounded by significant uncertainties related to the uncertainty inherent in natural phenomena such as the weather and those related to uncertainties in the parameters and models used in the evaluation.

Another use of these models is to evaluate strategies for improving information used in the modeling process itself. While sensitivity analysis is useful in defining variables in the model that are important, uncertainty analysis provides a tool for assessing the importance of uncertainty about these variables. A third complementary technique, is decision analysis. It provides a methodology for explicitly evaluating and ranking potential improvements to the model. Its use in the development of information gathering strategies for a nuclear waste repository are discussed in this paper.     

第一次世界大战期间英国伤残士兵抚恤金制度改革

伤残士兵抚恤金制度是第一次世界大战期间英国政府对退伍的伤残士兵发放抚恤补贴的制度。第一次世界大战爆发后，英国政府对这项制度进行了一系列的改革。新自由主义社会思潮的影响、英国民众的推动以及维护军队的稳定等是造成这种转变的主要原因。     

An Individual Mixed‐Evaluation Method for Career Intervention

Economic issues linked to career counseling are a cause for concern to policy makers in developed countries because they expect career practitioners to provide evidence of the efficiency of career counseling interventions. The aim of this study was to test an individual evaluation method mixing time series (outcomes) and life narrative (processes). The method used 5 items related to 1 client's career decision self‐efficacy and studied the evolution of those items throughout the intervention of 1 career counselor (43 days). Changepoint analysis helped in identifying the changes that have to be taken into account for time series and which are contextualized in the client's verbatim analysis. This mixed method highlighted that the career counselor's intervention increased the client's career decision self‐efficacy. Practitioners could use the methodology proposed in this article to evaluate their interventions. They could also report their practice to clients, employers, and decision makers.     

How to Evaluate Government Performance while Building a Rule of Law Government in China*

Building a law-based government is a central element of the comprehensive framework for promoting the rule of law in China, while using evaluation to catalyze growth is in line with the incentive principle of management studies. Since China started to implement reform and opening up over thirty years ago, rule of law development and organizational evaluation have gone through several stages, each with different characteristics. Efforts to build a law-based government have met with success, but what the country now has is essentially still goal-oriented assessment. At present, this suffers from the lack of a clear goal orientation or definition of functions, an imperfect technical system and unsound motivation mechanisms, not to mention the practical problems of each government department going its own way, duplicating evaluations or being left rudderless. Drawing on a combination of value rationality and instrumental rationality and using government performance evaluation to promote the building of a law-based government not only conforms to the spirit of the rule of law and value rationality in government performance, but also strengthens the role of evaluation as an instrument for organizational management. Therefore, we need to create new evaluation theories, expand public participation, introducing diversified evaluating entities, improve technical systems, strengthen institutional buildup, and foster a performance-based culture. In addition, replacing goal-oriented assessment with performance evaluation will help the emergence of a new discipline—the performance evaluation of rule of law government, thus promoting multidisciplinary efforts to integrate and create new public administration theories in China.     

Practical procedures to deal with common support problems in matching estimation

This paper assesses the performance of common estimators adjusting for differences in covariates, such as matching and regression, when faced with the so-called common support problems. It also shows how different procedures suggested in the literature affect the properties of such estimators. Based on an empirical Monte Carlo simulation design, a lack of common support is found to increase the root-mean-squared error of all investigated parametric and semiparametric estimators. Dropping observations that are off support usually improves their performance, although the magnitude of the improvement depends on the particular method used.     

A Narrative Approach to Pregnancy‐related Discrimination and Leader–follower Relationships

This study sheds light on women's perceptions of pregnancy‐related discrimination committed by the discriminated woman's immediate leader. The purpose is to show how women describe this perception during pregnancy and after their return to working life after maternity leave. Further, the study explores the ways in which the quality of the leader–follower relationship is revealed during the narration process. The research draws on five individual stories, collected in two rounds of interviews. Representations of several kinds of discriminatory practices can be found in the narratives and reveal that even being a partner in a good‐quality leader–follower relationship does not necessarily protect a woman from pregnancy‐related discrimination. However, women involved in a high‐quality leader–follower relationship described their perceptions in a more positive manner than those in a low‐quality relationship. The contribution of the article to the literature is twofold: firstly, the results challenge the traditional view that high‐quality leader–member exchange relationships lead to positive outcomes. Secondly, examining the different ways in which people describe their perceptions of discrimination deepens our understanding of the equality problems that working women face.