美国粮食价格突变及其对国内农业安全的启示

美国粮食市场价格突变可能为我国农业安全带来不可估量的冲击。以玉米和大豆产业为例,选取2000—2013年季度价格相关数据,基于PPM模型识别了玉米和大豆价格突变节点并测算其形成原因。实证结果显示,自21世纪以来,全美玉米市场共发生了六次价格上升突变、两次价格下降突变;大豆市场则历经四次价格上升突变、两次价格下降突变。粮价突变是供需因素与国际贸易、原油价格、美元指数变动等众多非供需因素共同作用的结果,因所处政治经济背景不同,各阶段形成原因也不尽相同。分析表明,美国粮价突变首先通过价格信息与贸易渠道间接的影响国内玉米和大豆价格;然后经由其他农产品价格波动、短期供给波动、国际游资及外商控制等路径对国内农业安全带来威胁。     

失地农民权益保障的制度创新

农业用地转为建设用地是工业化和城市化进程中的必然现象.虽然我国政府对失地农民进行了补偿,但由于土地产权制度、土地征用制度以及社会保障制度的不完善,致使失地农民仍然蒙受着经济权益的损害、政治权益的剥夺和社会权益的缺失.因此,制度创新是保障失地农民权益的有效途径.应改革土地产权制度,明确集体土地所有权主体,健全农民承包经营权权能;完善土地征用制度,限定"公共利益"的范围,提高征地补偿标准,严格规范征地程序;建立健全失地农民的养老、医疗、最低生活保障制度和就业保障机制.     

Connecting the gendered door: women, violence and doorwork

This paper explores the emerging role of women who work as 'bouncers', or doorstaff, in the night-time economy and examines how the cultural capital of the female bouncer is connected to the methods utilized to control licensed premises. It is drawn from a study that combined ethnographic observations and interviews in five major UK cities which explored a diverse range of issues such as gendered bodies, femininities and violence; the changing needs of the night-time economy in the UK and the experiences of women engaged in 'non-traditional' occupations. In this paper, we draw on interview data with one particular category of female door staff; women who share similar histories of exposure to violence and violent cultures, and we examine how their experiential knowledge of violence equips them with the resources to 'work the doors'. Our attention focuses on this group of women, who we refer to as 'The Connected', and examine how they are 'doing gender' when they negotiate violence 'on the door'     

The West,Russia, and China in Central Asia: What Kind of Game Is Being Played in the Region?

The article discusses the nature of the tangled interaction between the ex-Soviet Central Asian republics and the outside great powers – Russia, the United States and China. Although the so-called Great Game model is often used to explain the geopolitical rivalry in the region, the current pattern of relations between various international actors is much more complex than a traditional tug-of-war between the old colonial empires. While Russia's strategic role in Central Asia appears to be on the rise, the capacity of the West to influence political developments in the region has diminished. However, the overall situation in Central Asia remains volatile and its geopolitical landscape is far from being settled.     

完善我国养老保险制度的思考

在分析目前我国养老保险制度面临的问题的基础上,提出了健全和完善养老保险制度的对策措施,以期在加快建设社会主义市场经济体制的过程中逐步完善我国现行的养老保险制度,这既是社会和经济发展的客观要求,也是深化经济体制改革总体方案中的重要环节。     

对外开放条件下产业安全研究的生态学思路

随着中国加入WTO,对外开放程度不断加大,产业安全问题越来越引起人们的重视。以往的研究多采用经济学和数学方法,从生态学角度对产业安全进行研究在国内外尚未见报道。论题借鉴生态系统健康理论提出了产业生态系统的概念、产业安全的健康指数和敏感性指标;借鉴生态入侵理论提出了产业入侵假说,如多样性阻抗假说、天敌逃避假说、空生态位假说、资源机遇假说、干扰假说、生态位机遇假说。生态学方法为产业安全研究提供了一种新的思路。     

环境匮乏、社会适应性和紧急冲突:霍马-迪克逊环境安全研究述评

环境安全是当代可持续发展的重要议题。在建构环境匮乏、社会适应性和紧急冲突的因果联系过程中,霍马—迪克逊(Homer-D ixon)探讨了环境安全的本体论与方法论问题,对发展中国家的环境安全问题进行了经验研究,并且建立了较为完整的环境安全理论体系。他的研究有一些启发意义,当然也存在一些不足。     

信息化环境下审计内容与技术方法探讨

随着被审计单位各种信息系统的应用和会计信息化环境的逐渐形成,审计的内容与技术方法也发生了巨大的变化,审计内容转变为会计信息系统安全性审计和电子财务数据准确性审计两个方面。对会计系统安全性审计主要包括物理安全、技术安全和组织与管理安全几个方面;对电子财务数据准确性的审计一般分为数据采集、转换、清理与分析四个阶段。这些技术方法既有传统审计技术方法在信息化环境下的延伸,也有各种特定的IT审计技术。从长远上看,以智能审计专家知识库等IT审计技术将成为信息化环境下审计技术方法的未来发展趋势,对其方法进行研究具有很大的理论价值和现实意义。     

韩国人口老龄化与老年人社会保障

随着近几十年生育率的持续下降及平均寿命的不断提高 ,韩国人口逐渐出现了老龄化趋势。到下世纪初韩国人口老龄化进程将进一步加快。韩国人口老龄化的显著特征 ,就是在急剧的现代化过程中 ,还没来得及健全老年人社会保障、福利、医疗、保健等制度的情况下将迎来迅速的人口老龄化 ,从而使全社会面临着不断增长的老年人福利、医疗、保健需求     

China’s flexible overseas food strategy: food trade and agricultural investment between Southeast Asia and China in 1990–2015

Using the UN Comtrade database and multiple sources of agricultural investment data, this paper outlines the emerging patterns of food trade and agricultural investment between Southeast Asian countries and China. The paper shows that China has adopted a flexible overseas food strategy. First, China has increased food export and shifted its food trade with Southeast Asia from a dependent relationship towards a complementary relationship at the regional level in recent years. Second, China tends to adapt to the existing conditions of food production and trade in Southeast Asian countries instead of fundamentally altering them. Finally, Chinese overseas agricultural investment is less driven by domestic food demand but more oriented for profit making, and this gives it flexibility in diversifying investment. An adequate understanding of China’s flexible food strategy in bilateral and multilateral relationships holds implications for global food security.