国际气候变化制度的未来蓝图——从《哥本哈根协议》到《坎昆协议》

全球气候变化已经引起国际社会的关注,产生了不同的国际社会组织,并制定了各项相关国际社会制度,这些制度在解决国际气候变化的问题上具有关键性和决定性作用:首先,该制度起着建构性的作用;其次,国际气候变化制度必须对激活该项制度起到推波助澜的作用,使得处于不同地位的各方在谈判过程中能够建立共识,并且能在国际层面推动达成更具雄心的气候变化政策。这些促成了《哥本哈根协议》、《坎昆协议》的诞生。《哥本哈根协议》明确将气温升高控制在2摄氏度作为减排的目标。《坎昆协议》将此目标具体化,并提出气温升高控制在1.5摄氏度的任务。"后2012"国际气候变化制度必须具有全球性特征,遵循公平原则和共同但有区别的责任原则,将世界上主要的温室气体排放国家美国和一些发展中国家纳入进来。从性质上来说,《坎昆协议》所建构的可测量、可报告、可核证体系代替原有的制度机制,这将是国际气候变化制度中的全新改变。     

BCI-代数的拟结合部分的性质

在BCI-代数X中，把Q（X）={x∈X｜0＊（0＊x）=0＊x}叫做X的拟结合部分．讨论了它与X的G-部分和p-半单部分的关系，给出了Q（x）的其它性质．     

试论建设西峰产业聚集区的必要性

在西峰建立产业聚集区是实现庆阳工业强市的战略选择,它可以形成庆阳市的经济增长极,可以产生特殊的竞争力,可以改变传统产业分散孤立的生产方式,可以充分利用西峰现有的产业基础,可以降低其他投资者的进入门槛,这种模式已被发达地区的经济实践所证明。     

平原精神：“内爆”的美学张力与厚重的艺术世界——李登建散文创作论

李登建的散文艺术,以平原精神作为贯穿散文的内在精神标高和尺度;以内敛深沉而又内郁纠结的情感反思,建立起了“内爆”式的“平原哲学”。他擅长从具象处入手,使用华美丰饶的抒情思语与散发着泥土芬芳的乡言俗语,而“平原”的文化地理意象和“黑色”的色彩意象,构成了李登建散文中的两大核心意象。     

A μ-σ-Risk Aversion Paradox and Wealth Dependent Utility

We report a surprising property of --preferences: the assumption of nonincreasing relative risk aversion implies the optimal portfolio being riskless. We discuss a solution of that paradox using wealth dependent utility functions in detail. Using the revealed preference theory we show that (general, i.e. not necessary -) wealth dependent utility functions can be characterized by Wald's axiom.     

立足道德文化 实施文化强省战略

道德文化在精神文化中占有核心地位 ,是先进文化的重要体现。在实施文化强省战略中 ,道德文化建设是重中之重     

Uniformity of Node Level Conflict Measures in Bayesian Hierarchical Models Based on Directed Acyclic Graphs

Hierarchical models defined by means of directed, acyclic graphs are a powerful and widely used tool for Bayesian analysis of problems of varying degrees of complexity. A simulation‐based method for model criticism in such models has been suggested by O'Hagan in the form of a conflict measure based on contrasting separate local information sources about each node in the graph. This measure is however not well calibrated. In order to rectify this, alternative mutually similar tail probability‐based measures have been proposed independently and have been proved to be uniformly distributed under the assumed model in quite general normal models with known covariance matrices. In the present paper, we extend this result to a variety of models. An advantage of this is that computationally costly pre‐calibration schemes needed for some other suggested methods can be avoided. Another advantage is that non‐informative prior distributions can be used when performing model criticism.     

Asymptotic Results for the MPL Estimators of the Contact Process of Order p

Let X be a discrete time contact process (CP) of order p on Z ² as defined by Durrett and Levin (1994 Durrett , R. , Levin , S. A. ( 1994 ). Stochastic spatial models: a user's guide to ecological applications . Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 343 : 329 – 350 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), that is a CP where the function of birth takes p different values. We study the maximum marginal pseudo-likelihood (MPL) estimator of the model based on space-time evolution of X, that is, T + 1 successive observations of X on a finite subset S of sites. When T → ∞, this estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal for a non vanishing supercritical CP. We also propose a statistical test for the parameters of the model and verify the asymptotic results by some simulation studies.     

Geometric Ergodicity and Moment Conditions for a Seasonal GARCH Model with Periodic Coefficients

A seasonal GARCH process with periodic coefficients is considered and conditions for periodic stationarity, geometric ergodicity, β-mixing property with exponential decay rate, and existence of higher-order moments are obtained.     

The Effects of Sample Sizes in Phases I and II on p Control Chart Performance

Control charts designed for the properties of non conformities, also called p control charts, are powerful tools used for monitoring a performance of the fraction of non conforming units. Constructing a p chart is often based on the assumption that the in-control proportion of non conforming items (p ₀) is known. In practice, the value of p ₀ is rarely known and is frequently replaced by an estimate from an in-control reference sample in Phase I. This article investigates the effects of sample sizes in both Phase I and Phase II on the performance of p control charts. The conditional and marginal run length distributions are derived and the corresponding numerical studies are conducted. Moreover, the minimal sample sizes required in Phases I and II to ensure adequate statistical performance are proposed when p ₀ = 0.1 and 0.005.