麦茨"八大组合段"理论的读解与批判

电影符号学理论的产生是电影理论进入现代阶段的标志.麦茨的"八大组合段"理论是第一个也是迄今为止仅有的一个基本可行的合理的切分模式,而这种合理的切分又是对影片进行科学的精细化的分析批判必不可少的.其明显的局限在于割裂和回避了电影形式和内容的关系等实质问题,是一种纯描述性的理论体系.     

Modeling Event Times with Multiple Outcomes Using the Wiener Process with Drift

Length of stay in hospital (LOS) is a widely used outcome measure in Health Services research, often acting as a surrogate for resource consumption or as a measure of efficiency. The distribution of LOS is typically highly skewed, with a few large observations. An interesting feature is the presence of multiple outcomes (e.g. healthy discharge, death in hospital, transfer to another institution). Health Services researchers are interested in modeling the dependence of LOS on covariates, often using administrative data collected for other purposes, such as calculating fees for doctors. Even after all available covariates have been included in the model, unexplained heterogeneity usually remains. In this article, we develop a parametric regression model for LOS that addresses these features. The model is based on the time, T, that a Wiener process with drift (representing an unobserved health level process) hits one of two barriers, one representing healthy discharge and the other death in hospital. Our approach to analyzing event times has many parallels with competing risks analysis (Kalbfleisch and Prentice, The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1980)), and can be seen as a way of formalizing a competing risks situation. The density of T is an infinite series, and we outline a proof that the density and its derivatives are absolutely and uniformly convergent, and regularity conditions are satisfied. Expressions for the expected value of T, the conditional expectation of T given outcome, and the probability of each outcome are available in terms of model parameters. The proposed regression model uses an approximation to the density formed by truncating the series, and its parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood. An extension to allow a third outcome (e.g. transfers out of hospital) is discussed, as well as a mixture model that addresses the issue of unexplained heterogeneity. The model is illustrated using administrative data.     

汉语篇章结构标注的理论支撑

国外研究者以修辞结构理论为支撑对大批量的英语语篇结构进行标注,取得了可观的成绩,这为汉语语篇标注带来很多启示。鉴于英汉语篇之间的差异,提出以汉语的句群理论为支撑对汉语语篇结构进行标注。首先,汉语的句群理论与RST理论的根本假设、主要性质是一致的;其次,RST理论的分析基于从句和小句,这顺应了英语重形合的特征。然而,对于汉语重意合的特征RST理论很难发挥其应有的作用;最后,清华的多层级中文树库中已经涉及到篇章层面句群的识别,为以句群理论为支撑的汉语篇章结构标注奠定了基础。     

重庆武陵民族文化旅游走廊开发策略研究——基于SWOT分析框架

重庆武陵民族文化旅游走廊建设是重庆发展武陵山区经济高地和渝东南民俗生态旅游带的重要战略之一,其开发优势与劣势并存,机遇与挑战同在。重庆武陵民族文化旅游走廊的开发应该实施多项组合开发策略,培养龙头,创建品牌,突出特色,才能又快又好地发展其民族地区旅游事业。     

First-passage densities of controlled Gaussian processes

Whittle has proved a theorem that gives the optimal control of Gaussian processes in terms of the mathematical expectation of a function of the time and the place where the uncontrolled processes hit the boundary of the stopping region for the first time. In this paper we obtain formulae for the joint probability density function of the first hitting time and place and, in the time-invariant case, for the moment generating function of the first exit time of the optimally controlled processes. Two particular one-dimensional cases are considered.     

Co‐ordinating Passages: Understanding the Resources Needed for Everyday Mobility

Abstract

This article contributes to the ‘mobilities turn’ in social science by proposing new concepts and methods for analysing the ways in which people draw upon a range of resources to manage everyday mobility. We distinguish between the ‘projects’ people want to achieve and the ‘passages’ they need to go through in order to do so. We also distinguish between ‘pre‐travelling’ and ‘re‐ordering’. The analysis builds on insights from time‐geography, mobility studies and actor‐network‐theory to develop a conceptual vocabulary for understanding the dynamic and situated nature of travel in everyday life. The study combines qualitative and quantitative data from a study of hypermobile people in the Netherlands.     

论科学发现中灵感的逻辑建构

灵感具有鲜明的逻辑性 ,某种意义上可以说灵感的过程也是逻辑的过程———在灵感过程的诱发、触发、生发阶段 ,逻辑始终占据了主导地位 ,发挥着支配的作用。在此基础上 ,笔者构筑了触发灵感的模型和灵感及其逻辑因素的函数     

涡流室式柴油机连接通道流量系数的研究

本文建立了计算涡流式柴油机连接通道流量系数的热力学计算模型和二维数值计算模型.首次精确地计算出连接通道流量系数随曲轴转角的瞬时变化规律.研究和分析了通道结构参数和发动机运转因索对流量系数的影响,所建立的计算模型及其计算结果,对于改善和提高涡流室式柴油机性能,进一步提高其工作过程的计算精度具有重要意义。     

Some Remarks on Failure-times,Surrogate Markers,Degradation, Wear,and the Quality of Life

Suppose that data are available on failure-times and on a time-evolving process on each individual, called in some contexts wear or degradation. Four rather different types of relation between such a process and failure are described and brief comments on appropriate analysis sketched.