排污权交易若干问题之思考——以水污染为视角

排污权交易制度不明确或回避排污权财产权属性与排污者和政府博弈有关,也涉及各国环境权益.可量化的环境权益构成排污权交易对象,这种环境权益既有货币特征也显商品属性,对其性质把握应以设计能促进环境保护的交易制度为最终依归.针对水污染物排放权交易需要,细化总量控制及分解方式.排污许可证是官方授权的排污许可,排污权证是依法证明减排环境权益凭证.拥有排污许可证构成交易前提,但获得排污权证交易才可能发生.排污者拥有排污权是对其建设项目进行环境影响评价的法定条件.     

2020年中国碳市场回顾与展望

截至2019年，全球已经投入运行的碳排放权交易体系覆盖了全球温室气体排放总量的约8%，未来全球碳市场的规模有望进一步扩大。2017年底，中国启动了纳入发电行业的全国碳市场，未来正式开启交易后预计年配额将达到30多亿吨CO₂，成为超越欧盟的全球第一大碳市场。2018—2019年，中国碳市场主要进行基础能力建设工作，七个试点碳市场仍在继续运行，未来将逐步向全国碳市场过渡。截至2019年底，七个试点共完成线上配额交易量1.8亿吨，实现交易额41.3亿元，其中湖北碳市场成交总量和成交总额最高，北京碳市场成交均价最高，北京、上海、湖北、广东和深圳碳市场表现较为活跃，天津和重庆碳市场表现相对低迷。预计2020年后，全国碳市场将迎来发电行业首单配额交易，“十四五”期间逐步纳入其他高耗能行业。当前中国已经实现了2020年的碳强度在2005年的基础上降低40%~45%的减排目标，未来全国碳市场的顺利运行将对中国低成本实现碳排放在2030年前尽早达峰发挥积极作用。     

Estimation of Unit Risk for Coke Oven Emissions

In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 pg/m3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 × This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 × with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 × 10-"1.8 X     

What Do We Learn from Emissions Reporting? Analytical Considerations and Comparison of Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers in the United States,Canada, England,and Australia

Pollutant release and transfer registers (PRTRs) are becoming a popular measure for addressing industrial pollution in many countries. PRTRs require reporting of emissions from specific industrial sectors and making the information publicly available. This article suggests a framework for comparing PRTRs in order to determine whether they attain their declared goals and which factors, if any, influence their effectiveness. The challenges to such a comparison can be divided into three groups. The first refers to changes that are directly linked to the characteristics of PRTRs: both the changes within a specific system over time and variations among different systems. The second refers to parameters that affect the outcomes of the systems without being directly a part of them. The third involves the relations between the emissions reported to the PRTRs and the associated environmental risk. We suggest an approach that relies on relative comparison, commensurate with the unique characteristics of each PRTR, that compares their actual outcomes. Such an approach is necessary both due to significant variations among current PRTRs as well as for following the unique policy objectives that are manifested in different PRTRs. Application of this comparative approach in the United States, England, Canada, and Australia demonstrates significant differences in PRTR systems across countries and suggests that the mere presence of a PRTR may not lead to reduced industrial emissions. The analysis also demonstrates that emission reductions do not correlate with reductions in risk-related measures. The article proposes several simple modifications to the composition of current PRTR databases that may facilitate more accurate analysis of results and effective oversight of implementation.     

有机污染物麻醉毒性的定量结构活性相关研究

应用Gaussian-3(G3)理论计算了23种有机污染物的中性分子以及它们的阳离子和阴离子的优势构象,分别预测了它们的电离能和电子亲合能.同时得到相应的量子化学参数,如:分子最高占有轨道能、分子最低空轨道能、分子偶极矩和分子体积等,并将这些理化参数与有机污染物的麻醉毒性参数相关联.结果表明:有机污染物的麻醉毒性与分子的电离能和电子亲合能的差值、分子的偶极矩、分子的体积存在良好的多元线性相关性,并建立了有机污染物的定量结构活性相关方程.     

促进节能减排的财税政策选择

指出实现节能减排有助于转变中国经济增长方式,实现国民经济"又好又快"发展,同时基于能源和资源开采、加工、运输、消费等环节,就促进节能减排工作提出财政和税收政策选择。     

贸易增长、国际生产分割与CO2排放核算:产业vs.产品

国际生产分割影响碳排放核算的准确性。之前研究集中在讨论产业部门的效应,本文从产品"蕴含"(embodied)污染的角度进行分析。依据最新可获得的投入产出表数据,考虑加工贸易,利用改进的结构分解模型(SDA),本文研究了我国温室气体排放的影响因素。结果表明:出口的迅猛增长造成了大量的污染排放(剔除加工贸易的影响);其次,排放强度的大幅度降低有效地缓解了环境压力,但生产技术变化的方向、最终消费的高速增长使得节能减排的压力巨大。从产品"蕴含"污染的角度,建筑业的扩张对CO₂排放影响明显,2002年至2007年间对该产品的消费贡献了28%的CO₂排放增幅。因此,应加强技术进步的减排作用,诸如大力推广绿色建筑等。     

京津冀协同发展下民用汽车污染物减排研究

使用长期能源替代模型（ LEAP ）,对2012－2030年京津冀民用汽车的燃油消耗和主要污染物排放进行预测分析。研究发现：在政策情景下,京津冀民用汽车的燃油消耗相对于基准情景降低21?2％,污染物CO、 NOx、 PM、 HC的排放相对于基准情景分别降低63?2％、69?2％、51?7％、56?1％。新标准措施对燃油消耗的降低贡献率为71?5％,对污染物CO、 NOx、 PM、 HC的减排贡献率分别是89?8％、93?8％、91?0％、89?9％。京津范围内的小客车“限购”措施对京津冀燃油消耗的降低贡献率为28?5％,对京津冀污染物CO、 NOx、 PM、 HC的减排贡献率分别是10?2％、6?2％、9?0％、10?1％。政策情景中新标准措施的减排效果远远大于小客车“限购”措施的减排效果。     

基于风险效益均衡的发电侧碳排放权交易差价合约谈判模型

在由排放配额价格所引发的发电侧碳交易所和独立发电企业之间的排放权交易矛盾仍未解决的情况下,从理论方面引入排放权交易差价合约来规避发电企业的市场力并稳定排放配额价格。在此背景下,对考虑差价合约的排放权交易模式下碳交易所与发电企业的利润风险、经济效益进行了测度,在此基础上构建了二者之间合约谈判风险效益均衡模型,并给出了模型最优参数的求解程序,从而促进排放权供应与电能生产之间的协调与竞争型交易机制的形成。数值仿真与分析结果表明,本文所提出的模型可以有效规避发电侧排放权交易价格波动所带来的风险,且谈判双方面临的交易风险均与差价合约初始有效报价区间长度负相关。     

Legal families and environmental protection: Is there a causal relationship?

In this paper we build on the analysis of La Porta et al. [La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1998). Law and finance. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1113–1155], to investigate the importance of legal families in explaining the dissimilar levels of environmental quality indicators among countries with different legal systems. The main intuition behind our analysis is that the nations in which the rights of shareholders are more protected promote real and financial investment; this increases the speed at which the per capita income corresponding to the declining branch of the Environmental Kutznets Curve (EKC) is achieved. In econometrics different regressions analyses were performed, using as dependent variables three different kinds of pollutants (CO₂, fine suspended particulates and waste), and including as an explanation some financial variables never before considered in this kind of study.