能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长关系的实证研究——以河南省为例

结合河南省1978--2010年间的样本数据,采用协整分析、VECM模型和格兰杰因果检验等方法,实证分析了能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长三者之间的关系。结果表明,能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长三者之间具有长期均衡关系,碳排放与能源消耗和经济增长之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,能源消耗与经济增长之间具有双向因果关系。     

Commentary: Flawed Scientific-Evidence Standards Delay Diesel Regulations

Of 188 government-monitored air toxics, diesel particulate matter (DPM) causes seven times more cancer than all the other 187 air toxics combined, including benzene, lead, and mercury. Yet, DPM is the only air toxic not regulated more stringently under the Clean Air Act, as a hazardous air pollutant (HAP). One reason is that regulators use flawed standards of scientific evidence. The article argues (1) that DPM meets all six specified evidentiary criteria, any one of which is sufficient for HAP regulation and (2) that regulators’ standards of evidence for denying HAP status to DPM (no DPM unit-risk estimate, inadequate dose-response data, alleged weak mechanistic data) err logically and scientifically, set the evidence bar too high, delay regulation, and allow 21,000 avoidable DPM deaths annually in the U.S.     

Estimating Traffic Emissions Using Demographic and Socio-Economic Variables in 18 Chilean Urban Areas

A macro-scale methodology for vehicle emissions estimation is described. The methodology is based on both correlations between activity level and PM, CO, THC and NO _x vehicle emissions and relationships between demographic and socio-economic variables and transportation activity level. First, pollutant emissions were correlated with transportation activity, expressed as vehicle-km/year, using existing data collected from mobile sources emission inventories in nine urban cities of Chile. Second, demographic and socio-economic variables were pre-selected from those that could intuitively be correlated with vehicle activity level and considering the data availability. Using the individual R ² correlation coefficient as variable selection criterion, population, the number of vehicles, fuel consumption, gross domestic product, average family incomes and road kilometers were finally chosen. A different set of explicative variables was considered for different vehicle categories, based on the selection criterion above mentioned. Then, correlation functions between these variables and transport activity were obtained by non-linear Gauss–Newton least square method. This methodology was applied to eighteen provinces of the country obtaining total annual emission for mobile sources, divided into six main vehicles categories.     

中国能源消费的CO_2排放变动及其驱动因素分析

结合中国CO2排放的现状,运用改善的因素分解方法,就中国CO2排放变动的影响因素进行定性与定量的分析,研究结果认为：经济增长是促进能耗增长与CO2排放逐年增长的主导因素,而且这一作用还呈逐年增长的发展趋势;能源结构调整并未起到节能减排的作用,以煤为主的能源结构是导致CO2排放快速增长的原因之一;技术进步与产业结构调整是实现节能减排目标的主要因素。其中,能源技术进步减排效应最大。2020年减排目标的实现,关键在于推动节能技术进步,淘汰落后产能,推动重点领域节能减排;重点是控制煤炭消费的快速增长,以及能源结构与产业结构的双重优化。     

开放经济对碳排放的影响 ——-基于中国地区与行业面板数据的实证检验

研究开放经济下外商直接投资、对外直接投资以及国际贸易对我国碳排放的影响具有十分 重要的现实和理论意义。研究发现,外商直接投资的增长可以减少我国的碳排放,对外直接投资也有助 于降低国内的碳排放量,而出口贸易则会在一定程度上带来国内碳排放量的增长。但开放经济对碳排放 量的影响在不同的地区和行业呈现出不同的特征,地区间碳排放差异显著,与当地的经济发达程度和主 导产业相关,另外行业特性也决定了碳排放量的高低。因此,政府应不断提高环境保护标准,监督企业遵 照执行,改善国内生态环境,还要加大经济结构调整力度,对高排放类行业实施严格的环境管理政策,促 使企业改进生产技术,减少排放。     

克服蚕食CDM机制资源租的信息成本问题：碳权交易所的信息功能

在已有研究的基础上,引入信息成本变量,主要分析信息成本加剧CDM机制的失衡的各类市场形态,再提出以＂碳权＂交易所的信息功能克服由于信息成本问题所加剧的失衡问题,防止我国在参与CDM机制过程中,陷入仅被廉价地掠夺低成本减排能力,却忽视发展高可持续性项目的陷阱。     

湍流模型和施密特数对街谷内污染扩散模拟的影响

选取不同的湍动施密特数,分别采用标准κ-ε模型和realizable κ-ε模型对孤立街道峡谷内的气流运动和污染物扩散进行了数值模拟.计算得到的气流速度场和污染物浓度分布表明,标准κ-ε模型和realizable κ-ε模型预测出极为相似的气流旋涡结构,即在峡谷内生成一个中心大致位于峡谷中央的顺时针大旋涡,并在此大旋涡的作用下污染物往峡谷的背风侧积聚.通过对比分析峡谷迎风面和背风面上的无量纲污染物浓度计算结果与风洞试验数据表明,湍动施密特数的改变并不影响计算空气流场,但改变污染物扩散方程中的湍动扩散率,增大湍动施密特数将减弱污染物的湍动扩散作用,使得峡谷顶部污染物外溢减少,从而导致峡谷内的污染物浓度计算值增大;只要给定合适的计算参数,标准κ-ε模型和realizable κ-ε模型均能预测出峡谷内的污染物扩散分布,标准κ-ε模型合适的湍动施密特数为0.4～0.6,而realizable κ-ε模型则为0.3～0.5;当取湍动施密特数为0.7(Fluent软件系统中的默认值)时,标准κ-ε模型的计算精度高于realizable κ-ε模型的计算精度.     

节能减排立法的伦理基础

节能减排的目的在于解决经济发展与环境资源保护之间的矛盾,这种二维定位决定了节能减排立法应遵循的伦理基础是人本和谐主义。人本和谐主义以人性论和马克思主义的人与自然关系理论为其哲学基础,以“人为自身立法”的人本伦理观、“自然向人生成”的人本生态观和“人与自然界之间对立统一”的人本和谐观为其核心内容。     

全球气候变化问题与我国能源战略

全球气候变化及相应的温室气体排放问题 ,越来越成为国际社会关注的焦点。文章分析了发达国家在气候变化问题上的历史责任 ,评价了自改革开放以来 ,我国能源政策对控制温室气体排放量增长的客观效果 ,对未来我国的能源消费和相应的CO2 排放的趋势进行了预测 ,分析了我国未来在温室气体排放问题上可能面临的压力 ,以及未来可能采取限控措施的代价和对宏观经济的影响 ,并对我国能源战略有关政策提出了进一步的建议。     

Globalization,financial development and economic growth: Perils on the environmental sustainability of an emerging economy

The study examines the effects of globalization, financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption on environmental sustainability in India over the period 1980–2015. The novelty of the study is the assessment of environmental sustainability in a single framework encompassing globalization, financial development, and growth effects. Findings reveal that an increased level of globalization and financial development while improving economic performance are inimical to the sustainability of the environment. In the short-run, globalization, economic growth, and increased energy consumption are contributing directly to environmental degradation, while banking sector development is impacting environmental sustainability adversely through the economic growth channel. Given the severity of the findings amidst India’s tryst with economic growth, proactive policies are warranted to encourage adaptation of greener and cleaner technologies in environmentally sustainable areas. This necessitates improved institutional quality encompassing stringent environmental standards, legal systems, property rights, corruption, financial information quality, etc., alongside the provision of incentives and subsidies to manufacturing firms undertaking technological innovations and complying with the environmental standards.