Comparing Expressed and Revealed Preferences for Risk Reduction: Different Hazards and Question Frames

Studies often note the wide differences that exist in costs per death avoided across U.S. federal programs and regulatory contexts. This paper explores two new, related explanations for these differences. First, it argues that the patterns of revealed preferences (public allocations) may be related to public values, which are measured here through subjects' expressed preference responses to a contingent valuation survey regarding risk reduction. Subjects' expressed values are compared to actual (and proposed) costs of safety regulations for a similar set of hazards. We discover strong congruence in the ranking of expressed values and actual values. Second, the paper presents the results of a subsequent survey that investigates why the patterns observed in the first survey might occur. It suggests that one reason for the observed similarities between revealed and expressed preferences may be in how choices are framed. The paper hypothesizes that both subjects and decision makers may frame valuation decisions in the same way: as percentage changes from the reference point provided by the base rate of deaths for that hazard.     

The Role of Effort in Shifting Preference for Feedback Stimuli

ABSTRACT

Researchers have examined preference for the format of delivery of feedback, however little research has examined strategies to increase feedback and praise desirability. The current study aimed to evaluate whether preference shifted for stimuli that signaled work and for manager-praise stimuli that were delivered after work. Moreover, we sought to understand if these preference shifts were greater when the work was higher-effort compared to lower-effort work tasks (a phenomenon described in the basic literature as within-trial contrast). The study took place in a simulated work environment. Sixteen university students clicked on a shape that produced the work task, completed a mock medical data-entry task, and received manager-praise on an FR1 and FR20 schedule. At the start of the study and following each contingency exposure trials, they completed a preference assessment for both the shapes and the manager-feedback stimuli. The primary dependent variable was the percentage of preference change for two categories of stimuli – shapes presented at the beginning of trials that signaled which condition participants were in and manager-praise stimuli presented at the end of trials. Preference for the shape stimuli for both high- and low-effort stimuli decreased indicating that stimuli that signal work may become less preferred. Preference for the manager-praise stimuli for both high- and low-effort stimuli increased suggesting that stimuli that follow work may become more preferred. Overall, these data suggest that the conditions under which managers deliver feedback and praise may influence preference for those stimuli.     

Improved Approximation for Breakpoint Graph Decomposition and Sorting by Reversals

Sorting by Reversals (SBR) is one of the most widely studied models of genome rearrangements in computational molecular biology. At present, is the best known approximation ratio achievable in polynomial time for SBR. A very closely related problem, called Breakpoint Graph Decomposition (BGD), calls for a largest collection of edge disjoint cycles in a suitably-defined graph. It has been shown that for almost all instances SBR is equivalent to BGD, in the sense that any solution of the latter corresponds to a solution of the former having the same value. In this paper, we show how to improve the approximation ratio achievable in polynomial time for BGD, from the previously known to for any > 0. Combined with the results in (Caprara, Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, vol. 3, pp. 149–182, 1999b), this yields the same approximation guarantee for n! – O((n – 5)!) out of the n! instances of SBR on permutations with n elements. Our result uses the best known approximation algorithms for Stable Set on graphs with maximum degree 4 as well as for Set Packing where the maximum size of a set is 6. Any improvement in the ratio achieved by these approximation algorithms will yield an automatic improvement of our result.     

论代理契约中决策方案的设计与选择

本文论述了以博奕关系简化复杂的代理关系,用必然等值评估代理人的优先选择曲线,根据代理人优先选择曲线的类型,分析代理人的风险态度,据以设计相应的激励方案的方法与过程.     

从偏好的聚合到偏好的转换：中国农村民主形式变迁的内在理路

表达、汇集和满足偏好是民主的原本内涵和民主形式演进的内驱力。偏好聚合式的选举民主在中国获得了较大成就,并成为目前农村最主要的民主形式之一。但偏好聚合式的选举民主由于忽视了若干问题,导致其价值的发挥存在一定限度。为了更好地将村民个体的偏好表现出来,满足其管理乡村事务的需求,必须实现由偏好的聚合到偏好的转换,即实现从选举民主到协商民主的变迁,这是中国农村基层民主形式变迁的内在理路,也彰显了十八届三中全会民主政治建设的新思路。     

中国国企高管薪酬管制的原因及其对绩效的影响——基于委托人“不平等厌恶”模型

国企高管薪酬管制是国企薪酬制度的重点,影响着企业高管的行为和企业绩效。文章通过构建一个含有委托人"不平等厌恶"偏好的多任务"委托—代理"模型,从政府"不平等厌恶"偏好角度考察了薪酬管制的原因及其对企业绩效的影响。研究发现,政府对国企初次分配的"不平等厌恶"偏好导致了薪酬管制,而政府干预下的政治激励和高管身份的不确定性是薪酬管制实施的关键;薪酬管制降低了企业绩效,且实证检验支持国有企业绩效的"薪酬管制论"。因此,摈弃对国企高管的行政选拔是提高企业效率、推进薪酬改革的关键。     

An experimental evaluation of the descriptive validity of lottery-dependent utility theory

This article compares the performance of the expected utility (EU) and lottery-dependent expected utility (LDEU) models in predicting the actual choices of experimental subjects among risky options. In the process, we present two approaches for calibrating the LDEU model for an individual decision maker. The results indicate that while LDEU exhibits a higher potential for correctly predicting choice, the version of the model calibrated by indifference judgments does not outperform EU. We suggest a functional form for the parametric functions that defines the LDEU model, and discuss ways in which this function can be incorporated into choice-based assessment approaches to improve predictions.This research was supported in part by the Business Associates Fund at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.     

新疆入境外国游客客源市场分析基于亲景度、竞争态及SSM

分析新疆入境外国游客客源市场,明确市场的发展现状、存在问题和未来趋势,更有利于旅游业快速发展。运用亲景度、竞争态和SSM方法,借助有关统计数据,从不同角度探讨新疆入境外国游客客源市场的研究结果表明:各客源国入境外国游客对新疆的整体亲景度稳中下降;市场竞争态整体良好,但某些客源国市场增长率明显缓慢;市场竞争力在全国较强,但市场结构欠佳。针对各客源市场的不同,提出了相应的发展对策。     

Context,Cultural Bias,and Health Risk Perception: The “Everyday” Nature of Pesticide Policy Preferences in London,Calgary, and Halifax

Risk perception and the cultural theory of risk have often been contrasted in relation to risk‐related policy making; however, the local context in which risks are experienced, an important component of everyday decision making, remains understudied. What is unclear is the extent to which localized community beliefs and behaviors depend on larger belief systems about risk (i.e., worldviews). This article reports on a study designed to understand the relative importance of health risk perceptions (threat of harm); risk‐related worldviews (cultural biases); and the experiences of local context (situated risk) for predicting risk‐related policy preferences regarding cosmetic pesticides. Responses to a random telephone questionnaire are used to compare residents’ risk perceptions, cultural biases, and pesticide bylaw preferences in Calgary (Alberta), Halifax (Nova Scotia), and London (Ontario), Canada. Logistic regression shows that the most important determinants of pesticide bylaw preference are risk perception, lack of benefit, and pesticide “abstinence.” Though perception of health risk is the best single predictor of differences in bylaw preferences, social factors such as gender and situated risk factors like conflict over chemical pesticides, are also important. Though cultural biases are not important predictors of pesticide bylaw preference, as in other studies, they are significant predictors of health risk perception. Pesticide bylaw preference is therefore more than just a health risk perception or worldview issue; it is also about how health risk becomes situated—contextually—in the experiences of residents’ everyday lives.     

金融资产收益跳跃行为的微观机制

文章发展了一个均衡模型,从微观机理角度解释了为什么资产价格会发生不频繁的跳跃行为.在该模型中,投资者学习不可直接观测的、真实的经济系统状态并为此支付成本的行为诱发了资产价格的跳跃行为.而投资者是否选择学习的行为则取决于投资者的偏好参数和收入的条件波动率.