反Fuzzy子群的直积

1990年R.Biswas在[2]中提出了反Fuzzy子群的概念.在此基础上本文相应定义了反Fuzzy子群的直积.接着讨论了其包括正规、共轭情况下的若干性质.此外,还给出了直积μ_1×μ_2是G×G上的反Fuzzy子群的一个充要条件.     

产品设计的符号学解构

设计具有复杂性,它既不是科学也不是艺术。用符号学的方法来解析设计,产品设计的实质就是以实用功能为核心的文化价值传达,同时也包括审美功能;设计的目的是将造型语言所包含的文化价值如实地传达给消费者;为此,造型设计必须符合其符号学规则,包括语构学规则、语义学规则和语用学规则,规则的复杂性决定设计的复杂性,所以,对这些规则的研究是产品设计体系的基础。     

我国期货市场的法规探讨

本文阐述了期货市场法律规范的基本原则和主要功能，介绍了我国期货市场的近期发展与法规现状，并对我国期贷市场法律规范的基本原则与体系设置作了探讨。     

Government Risk Management Priorities: A Comparison of the Preferences of Asian Indian Americans and Other Americans

A survey was conducted of approximately 200 Asian Indian Americans and 200 other residents of New Jersey in order to understand the risk management priorities that they want government to have. We found that Asian Indian Americans, especially younger women, focused on personal/family risks, such as alcohol and drug abuse, sexual abuse, and domestic violence. The New Jersey comparison group, in contrast, placed war/terrorism and loss of health care services and insurance at the top of their priorities for government. These results suggest stressful acculturation-related issues within the Asian Indian community. Both populations want more risk management from government than they believe government is currently providing. Respondents who wanted more from government tended to dread the risk, be fearful of the consequences, trust government, and have a feeling of personal efficacy. Within the Asian Indian American sample, wide variations were observed by language spoken at home and religious affiliation. Notably, Muslims and Hindi language speakers tended not to trust government and hence wanted less government involvement. This study supports our call for studies of recent migrant populations and Johnson's for testing ethnic identity and acculturation as factors in risk judgments.     

Bayesian validation assessment of multivariate computational models

Multivariate model validation is a complex decision-making problem involving comparison of multiple correlated quantities, based upon the available information and prior knowledge. This paper presents a Bayesian risk-based decision method for validation assessment of multivariate predictive models under uncertainty. A generalized likelihood ratio is derived as a quantitative validation metric based on Bayes’ theorem and Gaussian distribution assumption of errors between validation data and model prediction. The multivariate model is then assessed based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a Bayesian decision threshold, a function of the decision costs and prior of each hypothesis. The probability density function of the likelihood ratio is constructed using the statistics of multiple response quantities and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is implemented in the validation of a transient heat conduction model, using a multivariate data set from experiments. The Bayesian methodology provides a quantitative approach to facilitate rational decisions in multivariate model assessment under uncertainty.     

Ranking Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Scenarios: The Italian Case

A quantitative criterion for ranking the different scenarios of nuclear and radiological terrorism has been developed. The aim of the model is not to predict terroristic events but only to indicate which scenario has the higher utility from the point of view of a terroristic organization in terms of balance between factors favoring and discouraging the attack, respectively. All these factors were quantified according to a scoring system that takes into account the logarithmic relationship between perceptions and stimuli. The criterion was applied to several scenarios, each of which was modeled in a simple but not trivial way in order to estimate the expected damage in terms of probable life losses from both radiative and nonradiative effects. The outcome from the ranking method indicates that the attractive scenario appears to be the detonation of a low yield improvised nuclear device in the metropolitan area of a major city.     

高校内部审计风险原因及对策研究

内部审计机构的相对独立性、审计人员业务能力的局限性、审计方法及审计手段的落后状况等因素决定了内部审计风险的客观存在,目前高校办学和业务活动出现了一些新的特点,高校的内部审计工作不仅同样也存在风险,且较之以前有加大的趋势。本文论述了高校内部审计风险产生原因并相应提出了防范和控制风险的措施。     

陕西关中地区无公害农产品出口基地运行机制研究

在基地建设和运行中,基地能否最大限度的发挥功能,还取决于多种经济和非经济因素共同作用的运行机制。当前,运行环节的薄弱一直是制约我国农产品出口的瓶颈。该论文从基地建设的微观、中观、宏观三个层面的运行机制出发,阐述了陕西关中地区无公害农产品出口基地建设中,在运行机制方面存在的主要问题。并针对问题,分别从三个层面提出了相应的对策建议。重点分析研究了中观产业组织模式的几种形态,包括:“车间型”、“订单型”、“合作社型”、“协会型”、“飞地型”。     

Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.