Risk and Self-Protection: A State-Contingent View

This article is a brief outline of the implications of state-contingent production for the self-insurance problem. A general state-contingent approach to choice and production under uncertainty is presented. Upper and lower bounds for willingness-to-pay for reductions in ambient risk are derived.     

Survival through the Allais paradox

This paper investigates the allegation that behavior such as the Allais Paradox reduces the probability of survival. Examples are demonstrated where maximizing probability of survival in two choice situations imply a set of choices that add up to the Allais Paradox.     

How Much Internalization of Nuclear Risk Through Liability Insurance?

An important source of conflict surrounding nuclear energy is that with a very small probability, a large-scale nuclear accident may occur. One way to internalize the associated financial risks is through mandating nuclear operators to have liability insurance. This paper presents estimates of consumers' willingness to pay for increased financial security provided by an extension of coverage, based on the 'stated choice' approach. A Swiss citizen with median characteristics may be willing to pay 0.14 US cents per kwh to increase coverage beyond the current CHF 0.7 billion (bn.) (US$ 0.47 bn.). Marginal willingness to pay declines with higher coverage but exceeds marginal cost at least up to CHF 4 bn.(US$ 2.7 bn.). An extension of nuclear liability insurance coverage therefore may be efficiency-enhancing.     

Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk

We evaluate the effects of disease type and latency on willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce environmental risks of chronic, degenerative disease. Using contingent-valuation data collected from approximately 1,200 respondents in Taiwan, we find that WTP declines with latency between exposure to environmental contaminants and manifestation of any resulting disease, at a 1.5 percent annual rate for a 20 year latency period. WTP to reduce the risk of cancer is estimated to be about one-third larger than WTP to reduce risk of a similar chronic, degenerative disease. The value of risk reduction also depends on the affected organ, environmental pathway, or payment mechanism: estimated WTP to reduce the risk of lung disease due to industrial air pollution is twice as large as WTP to reduce the risk of liver disease due to contaminated drinking water.     

Whom should we believe? Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs

We examine the collective risk attitude of a group with heterogeneous beliefs. We prove that the wealth-dependent probability distribution used by the representative agent is biased in favor of the beliefs of the more risk tolerant consumers. Moreover, increasing disagreement on the state probability raises the state probability of the representative agent. It implies that when most disagreements are concentrated in the tails of the distribution, the perceived collective risk is magnified. This can help to solve the equity premium puzzle. We show that the trade volume and the equity premium are positively correlated.

On the Effect of Risk Aversion in Bimatrix Games

Nash equilibria with identical supports are compared for bimatrix games that are different with respect to the risk aversion of player 2. For equilibria in 2× 2-bimatrix games and for equilibria with efficient supports in coordination games it is established for which cases increased risk aversion of player 2 benefits or hurts player 2.     

Services to prevent child placing-out for cocaine-affected and non-affected families

This study sought to evaluate the effectiveness of the'In-Home Family Care' programme of Children's Home Society of California in Alameda County, particularly regarding the emphasis and impact of services for cocaine-affected families. The family characteristics, problems addressed and service provision in cases served over a 3-year period were assessed in terms of their relation to placement outcome for cocaine-affected and non-affected families. This evaluation found that, despite serious and often chronic problems among cocaine-affected families, their child removal rate was no higher than that for non-affected families. Implications for risk assessment and placement decisions are discussed.     

国际贸易分工:理论演进与当代多层次格局

国际贸易分工理论反映了特定时期国际贸易分工的发展历史和特点,解释了各个时期出现的贸易分工现象,每一种新的理论都是对原有理论的继承与发展。产品内贸易分工理论的发展则是国际贸易分工新实践的内在诉求。当代国际贸易分工业已呈现出产业间贸易分工、产业内贸易分工和产品内贸易分工三位一体的多层次格局。     

Paying to improve your chances: Gambling or insurance?

Will a more risk-averse individual spend more or less to improve probabilities, say on marketing efforts that enhance the chance of a sale? For any two payoffs and starting probabilities, the answer is unfortunately indeterminate. However, interpreting gambling as increasing small chances of good outcomes and insurance as reducing small chances of bad outcomes, the more risk-averse individual will pay less (more) to gamble (insure). We find a critical switching probability that depends on the individuals and outcomes involved. If the good outcome is less (more) likely than this critical value, the expenditures represent gambling (insurance).     

论产品责任的归责原则

产品责任是一种特殊的侵权责任类型。文章在重新考察侵权行为法归责原则理论的基础上 ,得出了两个前提性的结论 ,即过错推定不是一种独立的归责原则 ;严格责任就是无过错责任。经过对现代产品责任发展趋势的分析 ,作者提出我国产品责任的归责原则应为严格责任 (无过错责任 )。