Risk Perceptions and Alcohol Consumption among Young People

Swedish cross-sectional survey data on young individuals was used to analyse the determinants of perceived risks of alcohol use and how these perceptions relate to drinking behaviour. Three major conclusions were drawn: (1) that people overestimate the risks of alcoholism, (2) that these risk perceptions fall substantially with age, but nevertheless imply risk overestimation, and (3) that education about alcohol, narcotics and tobacco leads individuals to perceive risks more correctly and to have lower risk beliefs. An additional finding was that individuals with higher perceived risks were less likely to consume alcohol. Equations were estimated both separately and simultaneously.     

Decision-Making, Time Horizons, and Risk in the Very Long-Term Perspective

Some decisions made today have far-reaching consequences as exemplified by those concerning nuclear power and spent nuclear fuel. The investigation presented here uses a decision theoretic framework in which time horizons and the discounting of negative consequences play significant roles. The results indicated wide variations in the lengths of the planning horizons judged to be adequate not only across a number of activities, including nuclear waste management, but also across groups of subjects (e.g., engineering students, retired people, and nuclear fuel experts). The paper reports typical judgments and correlations between different variables for different groups of subjects. The differences across groups reflect potential sources of conflict, depending in part on different values and different perceptions of more or less uncertain facts. Discounting functions for negative consequences in the future were also established. A range in differences in the speed of discounting were found and illustrated. Furthermore, it was found that substantial proportions in all groups regarded negative consequences related to nuclear waste as nondiscountable. When asked about the effect of time until outcome on acceptable probability of a negative outcome, many subjects used the probability concept in an incoherent way, illustrating the great difficulty in communicating small probabilities in a long-term risk context.     

教师对有限教育责任的承担——兼论教学风险

从教育诉讼增多现象开始分析,以责任和教育责任为逻辑起点,探讨了教师承担教育责任的两难困境,分析了教育责任中的伦理问题,提出使教师承担教育责任的三点建议。     

The Brent Spar Controversy: An Example of Risk Communication Gone Wrong

This perspective piece uses the theories and ideas of risk communication to shed light on the reasons why the proposed dumping of Brent Spar in the U.K. offshore waters caused such an international uproar. We postulate that the Brent Spar crisis is a classic example of risk communication gone wrong. Had the sinking of the storage buoy not been amplified by the media and the environmental group Greenpeace, and had not the U.K. Government nor Shell come across as distrustful it would probably have taken place without any public notice. We examine some of the main reasons why Greenpeace succeeded in its risk communication and Shell/the U.K. Government failed. We conclude with a discussion concerning some of the risk communication lessons learned from this crisis.     

中国农业技术进步路线的选择与科研资源安排

中国的农业现代化建设问题是当前农业经济研究的一个热点。制约我国农业技术进步路线选择因素的复杂多样性,决定了在我国农业发展的现阶段,农业技术进步路线选择只能是一种“综合型、非均衡、动态式”技术进步路线。技术路线的实施需要农业科研的支持,因此,应当从农业科技的特性出发,根据我国农业资源的禀赋和农产品的市场需求状况,以诱发性创新理论为指导,对我国的农业科技创新与开发资源做正确的安排。     

社会变迁:风险与社会控制

现代社会是一个高风险的社会。由于现代化和体制转型的双重过程,中国社会所面临的风险是叠加的。现代社会的"时—空延伸"特征,以及中国体制转型所带来的多元化、市场化、非集中化、流动性特征,使得重建共享价值观体系、弹性社会结构、国家与社会的组织化体系、法治及社会信息沟通体系,成为当代中国社会控制体系所面临的巨大挑战。     

机构设置导致的跨国银行操作风险度量研究

操作风险的准确度量是操作风险有效管理的前提。风险损失包括预期损失和非预期损失,对于可示损失采用Delta方法进行度量,对于控制失效或外部事件引起的超额损失,则用EVT方法进行计算,再利用门槛值将两者结合起来,可以较准确地度量分行在经营过程和向总行传递过程中由于机构设置不合理导致的操作风险,从而更合理地为这部分的操作风险分配经济资本。     

论我国产品责任法的重构

本文在简要介绍国际产品责任法发展概况和我国产品责任立法现状的基础上，对国内外（主要参照美国和欧洲）产品责任法的立法体制、基本概念、产品责任主体、产品责任归责原则等一系列问题进行了分析比较，并进一步提出重构我国产品责任法的主张和观点。     

Expanding the focus of cost–benefit analysis for food safety: a multi-factorial risk prioritization approach

A pressing need in the area of food safety is a tool for making overall, macro-judgments about which risks should be given priority for management. Governments often seek to base this prioritization on public health impacts only to find that other considerations also influence the prioritization process. A multi-factorial approach formally recognizes that public health, market-level impacts, consumer risk preferences and acceptance, and the social sensitivity of particular risks all play a role in prioritization. It also provides decision-makers with a variety of information outputs that allow risk prioritization to be considered along different dimensions. Macro-level prioritization of risks based on multiple factors is an important expanded use of cost–benefit analysis to manage risk.     

有界风险模型中Gerber-Shiu函数的若干结果

研究了有界风险模型中的Gerber-Shiu函数,得到了当索赔到达Erlang(2)过程时Gerber-Shiu函数满足的微积分方程,并进行求解.进而研究了延迟更新有界风险模型中,对首次索赔时刻的分布加入一个新的参数时Gerber-Shiu函数的变化,并得到了一个数学上易处理的Gerber-Shiu函数的公式.