Estimating the probability of obtaining nonfeasible parameter estimates of the generalized pareto distribution

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution. Both the method of moments and probability-weighted moments do not guarantee that their respective estimates will be consistent with the observed data. We present simple programs to predict the probability of obtaining such nonfeasible estimates. Our estimation techniques are based on results from intensive simulations and the successful modelling of the lower tail of the distribution of the upper bound of the support. More simulations are performed to validate the new procedure.     

荀子荣辱观念之再考察

荀子作为先秦诸子百家思想的集大成者,在批判和吸收各家各派的同时,继承了孔孟关于荣辱观念的根本理路,对当时的社会治乱、人心世风进行了深入的洞察,对当时的天人关系、天人之分进行了细致的探究。他从人性的先天不足入手,于先王之道的根本精神处找出路,从而构建出了自己的荣辱观念。     

高校贫困生的社会支持与亲社会行为的关系研究——基于湖南、贵州两所高校贫困生的调查

社会支持是高校贫困生顺利完成学业的重要保障。从来源上说,社会支持包括非正式社会支持和正式社会支持。通过调查研究发现,非正式社会支持中的情感支持、经济支持、陪伴支持和信息支持对高校贫困生的亲社会行为影响较大;正式支持中的助学贷款支持对高校贫困生的亲社会行为影响较为显著。     

The impact of foster children's behavioural problems on Flemish foster mothers' parenting behaviour

Foster children often have behavioural problems. Behavioural problems influence the level of parenting stress and can lead to a breakdown. In this study, parenting behaviour of foster mothers is mapped, and the influence of behavioural problems and parenting stress on the parenting behaviour 2 years later is examined. Data of behavioural problems, family stress and parenting were gathered from 49 foster mothers. Problem behaviour has a direct negative impact on parenting and leads to less support and more negative control. It also results in more parenting stress. Foster parents need to be trained aiming at preventing ineffective parenting. The well‐being of foster parents needs to be guarded. Higher levels of parenting stress lead to less effective parenting.     

Gender,Culture and Intervention: Exploring Differences between Aboriginal and Non‐Aboriginal Children’s Responses to an Early Intervention Programme

Evaluation of a group parenting programme in the Northern Territory of Australia showed significant differences in benefits for Aboriginal and non‐Aboriginal boys and girls. The analysis considers whether boys and girls from different cultural backgrounds present with different problems; whether parental expectations for boys and girls differ and whether the intervention activates different responses in different settings. Conclusions suggest that there is a need to closely examine the ‘cultural logic’ of interventions, the appropriateness of their assumptions about child development and hypothesised mechanisms of change in different settings.     

The relationship between explicit and implicit learning processes and probable pathological gambling

This paper reports the findings of a study of explicit and implicit learning and gambling with non-problem (n = 107), sub-clinical problem gamblers (n = 13), and probable pathological gamblers (n = 46). Two probability learning tasks modeled after gambling games and an artificial grammar task were used to explore how people learn patterns. In each of the two probability learning tasks, the outcome of the game was biased during the first part (learning phase) of the task. The results showed that many of the participants in the experimental conditions learned the bias and gradually unlearned the bias during the extinction phase of the study. Probable pathological gamblers showed less retention of the bias during two probability tasks and repeated the same errors during the artificial grammar task suggesting that they emphasize explicit learning strategies rather than implicit learning strategies. The results are consistent with the idea that pathological gamblers are more likely to utilize explicit rules than implicit rules.     

The power of ‘feeling one’ with a group: identity fusion and extreme pro-group behaviours / El poder de ‘sentirse uno’ con un grupo: fusión de la identidad y conductas progrupales extremas

Abstract

Why do some people make extreme sacrifices for their group? We propose that the identity fusion theory helps to understand extreme pro-group behaviour. Identity fusion entails a visceral feeling of oneness with the group. Since the borders between the personal and social self are highly permeable for fused persons, they care about the outcomes of the group as much as their own outcomes. In this article we start by introducing what identity fusion is and the four principles that conceptually capture its essence. After presenting the three alternative methods for measuring identity fusion, we review empirical evidence demonstrating what identity fusion predicts, and the underlying mechanisms that moderate and mediate its consequences. The next sections focus on the possible causes of identity fusion, and we introduce suggestions for diminishing undesirable extreme behaviours by decreasing fusion (i.e., ‘de-fusion’). In a final section, we briefly discuss alternative theories of the causes of extreme behaviours and their relation to identity fusion theory.     

Driving,Communicating and Working: Understanding the Work-related Communication Behaviours of Business Travellers on Work-related Car Journeys

Abstract

Despite an increasing number of workers requiring to travel extensively in carrying out their work, there are significant gaps in knowledge related to how business travellers make use of journey time. This paper addresses this gap in knowledge by examining the journey-time behaviours of business people travelling by car on work-related journeys. One of the central focuses of the paper is on the extent to which business travellers use mobile communication technologies and the extent to which they experience a pressure to remain in ‘perpetual contact’ with colleagues and clients while travelling.     

网络社会中个体人格特征及其行为关系

目前,网络心理研究的数据收集手段主要依赖于问卷调查法。在针对此种方法所存在的弊端进行深入讨论的基础上,提出了从基于被试主观评价转变为基于客观网络行为数据的全新研究思路,并阐明了由此可能带来的诸如保障数据可靠性等方面的改进与优势。文章最后探讨了计算机科学中行为分析技术在未来网络心理研究中的可行性与价值性。     

不同类型组织R＆D行为与绩效差异分析

有效开展R＆D是实现经济增长、组织进步的关键,主流经济学探索了技术进步和经济发展的内在关系,提出技术进步是通过组织和单个行为人的行动实现的。在构建R＆D活动中组织行为逻辑的基础上,文章采取分层抽样的统计方法,对甘肃省2007年的科技计划项目进行了分析,比较了高等院校、企业和科研院所的几种典型行为,从而印证了组织的行为逻辑。