中国人口再分布的社会经济合理性及其“多中心集聚”分析

文章通过人口、经济不均衡性及重心变动分析,充分揭示了当前我国人口分布的空间格局及其变化状况。结果表明,中国人口区域偏集依然严重,且还有加剧的趋势,同时“人口一经济”间的契合度也不高,甚至还出现人口重心移动与投资重心移动相背离的情况,这对近期人口空间格局的发展非常不利。为此,研究认为,在当前的中国人口、经济形势下,构建以“多中心集聚”为导向、“人的城镇化”为内涵的新型城镇化体系,是未来进行人口合理再分布的必由之举。     

简论市场转型理论及其理论得失

倪志伟的市场转型理论对转型时期中国的社会、经济、政治状况提出了一些颇有意义的论点,本文将试图梳理、勾勒市场转型理论的要点并探究其理论得失.     

Extending social security in developing countries: a review of three main strategies

The article discusses strategies to extend social security cover-age in developing and newly industrialised countries. The three major options are to extend social insurance coverage , to rely on mutuals or micro-insurance or to bring in social assistance in one form or another. Social insurance usually covers small population segments. Insiders are seldom willing to extend coverage to poorer groups, as poorer groups are usually higher-risk groups. Micro-insurance and mutual societies work pri-marily among people with similar risk profiles. Discretionary social assistance targets poorer groups, but is open to patronage and misuse. However, some social assistance designs are less open to misuse than others. Demogrants, i.e. benefits given to people in vulnerable social categories, are easy to administer and difficult to misuse. Whether or not a developing country provides such benefits can be considered an indicator of the willingness of the ruling elite to alleviate hardship among 'unproductive' population groups.     

资源价格改革下的利益再分配研究

旨在提高资源配置效率、完善市场经济制度的资源价格改革在促进资源节约和经济发展方式转变的同时打破了原有的利益格局,中央政府、资源产出地、资源生产企业成为改革的主要获益方,居民、资源短缺地在利益的重新分配中处于不利位置。平衡资源价格改革收益、破除行业垄断、提高居民收入和低收入群体生活保障以抵消改革后物价上涨的压力是资源价格改革重要的政策配套。     

The PAYG system and the optimal redistribution instrument in an overlapping generation model

Using a two‐period overlapping generation (OLG) model, this article seeks to identify the optimal redistribution policy instrument in terms of aggregate welfare when agents differ according to their labour condition. We use five policy specifications: (i) early redistribution to the young informal generation; (ii) late redistribution to the informal old generation; (iii) a mix between early and late redistribution; (iv) redistribution from the current formal young generation to the current formal old one; and (v) a non‐redistribution scenario. With inelastic labour supply, we show that transferring to the young performs better as a redistribution policy. This result is robust across different parameter values.     

Mandatory occupational welfare: Severance pay as an unemployment compensation instrument

This study focuses on the conceptual and empirical development of severance pay (SP)/redundancy pay schemes established through centralized collective agreements (in Nordic countries) and legislation for unemployment compensation. It argues that these “mandatory” occupational welfare benefits have been neglected in social policy debates due to the ambiguity in their conceptualization, overemphasis on their cost implications, and the nonrecognition of their redistributive effects. The study offers quantitative indicators to analyse SPsapos; redistributive structure (coverage, generosity, and benefit equality) during the Global Recession in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Ireland, France, Germany, Austria, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, and Sweden. The findings demonstrate that SP schemes possess distinctive elements in Southern European, Continental European, Anglo-Saxon, and Nordic clusters. The indicators are also used to analyse the interplay between these schemes and unemployment insurance/assistance in these clusters.     

Reducing the regressivity of indirect taxation in Brazil through a personalized value-added tax

ICMS is a value-added tax and the most important tax in Brazil in terms of revenue. This paper investigates the technical feasibility and impact of a reform to ICMS. The aim of the reform is twofold, on the one hand, to modernize the tax and redress some current flaws in terms of neutrality, simplicity and transparency and, on the other, to reduce its regressivity, increase redistribution, reduce poverty and impact positively on social welfare (without a loss in the tax revenue). A static behavioral microsimulation model was purpose-constructed to study the proposed reform. The new tax simplifies the current system by introducing a single general tax rate and an increased rate for alcoholic beverages and tobacco, without exemptions, combining this with a total or partial refund for the poorest families. The empirical results show that the new tax is superior to the current one, both in terms of efficiency and equity.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Who is the predator,who the prey？ --an analysis of changes in the state of China＇s national income distribution

本文以2004年经济普查后修订的资金流量表为基础，依次从国民收入的初次分配和再分配两个阶段，分析了1992—2005年期间我国国民收入在企业、政府和居民三部门之间分配格局的变化，重点讨论了自1996年以来居民收入占比下降的原因。在分析初次分配格局时，本文将每个部门的初次分配收入占比表示为各要素分配份额按各要素收入中该部门所占比重加权得到的加权平均值。利用这一表示方式，我们校正了资金流量表中的要素分配份额，重新计算了1993—2005年间的国民收入分配格局，并推算了2006和2007年的国民收入分配格局。测算结果表明，居民部门在全国可支配收入中的占比在1996年达到最高，此后逐年降低，截止N2005年，总共下降了12．72个百分点。在初次分配和再分配阶段，居民部门分别下降了10．71和2．01个百分点。与之相对应，企业和政府部门在初次分配中的占比分别上升了7．49和3．21个百分点；在再分配阶段，居民和企业部门收入占比都下降，由此导致政府部门进一步上升3．17个百分点。我们还发现，国民收入的要素分配中劳动收入占比下降和财产收入占比下降，是居民部门在国民收入初次分配中占比下降的两个主要原因。在2005—2007年间，主要受生产水净额占比上升的影响，居民部门在国民收入中占比进一步下降了3个百分点以上．     

从再分配入手扩大内需——对存款利息所得征收所得税的思考

扩大内需必须加强政府对再分配的调节。对存款利息所得征收所得税 ,在缩小贫富差距的同时 ,增强了政府转移支出的能力 ,从而也增加了低收入阶层的支付能力。但税收在照顾到公平的同时难免损害效率 ,这是一个两难抉择     

构筑和谐社会的收入分配理论和制度

在我国社会主义初级阶段和市场经济体制下,不存在一种单一的分配理论作为全部分配制度的理论基础。按劳分配的基本分配制度、收入分配实现的市场机制和政府的收入再分配都是建设社会主义和谐社会的需要,都应该是我国的收入分配制度的组成部分。