多媒体教学方法的探讨

本文通过对传统的板书教学与多媒体教学方法的比较 ,分析了它们的优缺点 ,进而介绍了多媒体教学课件的制作方法 ,探讨了如何运用多媒体教学手段组织教学。     

Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making: current approaches

Summary.  Alongside the development of meta-analysis as a tool for summarizing research literature, there is renewed interest in broader forms of quantitative synthesis that are aimed at combining evidence from different study designs or evidence on multiple parameters. These have been proposed under various headings: the confidence profile method, cross-design synthesis, hierarchical models and generalized evidence synthesis. Models that are used in health technology assessment are also referred to as representing a synthesis of evidence in a mathematical structure. Here we review alternative approaches to statistical evidence synthesis, and their implications for epidemiology and medical decision-making. The methods include hierarchical models, models informed by evidence on different functions of several parameters and models incorporating both of these features. The need to check for consistency of evidence when using these powerful methods is emphasized. We develop a rationale for evidence synthesis that is based on Bayesian decision modelling and expected value of information theory, which stresses not only the need for a lack of bias in estimates of treatment effects but also a lack of bias in assessments of uncertainty. The increasing reliance of governmental bodies like the UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence on complex evidence synthesis in decision modelling is discussed.     

困境中的执著与前行——转型时期俄罗斯哲学研究现状综述

解体之后的哲学在俄罗斯遭到了前所未有的冷落,它既面临着俄罗斯是否还需要哲学的问题,又面临着被终结的可能,但是俄罗斯哲学以自己一贯的优秀品质在低靡的社会现实中艰难地跋涉,关注着一些积极而有意义的同社会生活密切相关的问题。暂时摆脱意识形态束缚的俄罗斯哲学,更加清醒理智地期待哲学的美好未来。     

中学化学实验研究选题探讨

中学化学实验研究的关键问题是如何选择研究课题。应从中学化学教学的需要、中学化学实验研究的内容、中学化学实验的发展趋势以及中学化学实验教学改革等方面来选择研究课题。     

后现代主义对教育评价研究的启示

后现代主义是 2 0世纪末西方社会流行的一种哲学和文化思潮 ,其影响遍及各个领域。强调反思和批判精神、反中心和提升非理性、倡导多元化的方法论和提倡对以及淡化价值判断是其显著特征。自 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,许多教育学者开始借助后现代主义的有关思想来审视教育 ,笔者通过对后现代主义有关思想的观照 ,展开由后现代主义引发的对当前教育评价研究有关问题的思考。     

听力课与视听课相结合的新模式

学校原有的语言实验室、视听实验室各有局限，已不能满足教学需要。因此，对两个实验室的两套设备进行具体的技术改造，组建成了一个新的功能更加完善的语言与视听实验室，从而大大提高了听力与视听课的教学质量。     

山东方言研究方法新探

本文从研究方法的角度节选《山东方言研究·概论编》的三部分内容：一是通过山东史前文 化推断山东方言的产生及现代山东方言分区格局的形成，二是结合山东地方历史评述山东方 言在汉语发展中的地位和影响，三是从研究内容和方法总结建国以来山东方言研究的发展道 路。     

国民核算简约帐户系统设计研究

国民经济核算账户系统在为专业核算研究人员提供研究框架和数据的同时 ,应生成一套精当、简明、适用的系统 ,简约概括一国经济活动的基本状况 ,以方便各个层次对象使用。     

LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

论鲁迅对唐代小说研究的贡献

本文分析了鲁迅关于唐代小说的历史地位、唐代小说的题材内容和艺术特色、唐代小说对后世创作的影响等几方面的真知灼见,总结了鲁迅对唐人小说研究的杰出贡献,从中更深地体会鲁迅科学严谨的治学精神和进步的文　　艺思想。