安全利益影响下朝鲜经济发展趋势分析

冷战结束后,朝鲜面临着安全利益和经济发展两大亟待解决的问题。安全问题既影响了朝鲜有限资源的配置,也影响了朝鲜经济发展所需要的外部环境。为解决这一困境,朝鲜似乎希望通过朝鲜半岛核问题来推动问题的解决。从目前朝鲜经济政策调整发展的趋势和朝鲜半岛核问题发展的进程来看,朝鲜应该是在寻找一条能够推动经济发展的渐进的适合朝鲜国情的改革发展道路。     

农村妇女参政权益及其法律保障

对“农村妇女权益调查”的统计分析发现,我国农村仍存在妇女参与村民自治的积极性不高、权利意识较淡薄且从众心理较强、农村群众普遍不认同女性的管理能力等问题。为发展农村基层民主。保障我国农村妇女参政权益,应在相关法律中增加女性候选人及女性代表的具体比例以及补选措施等相关规定,补充规定各级妇女联合会对妇女参政的监督机制,增补对妇女参政比例的保障监督机制。     

我国新型农村养老保险制度的SWOT分析

文章从新农保的“新”字入题,试图借鉴管理学SWOT研究分析方法,从我国当前新型农村养老保险制度发展所面临的发展机遇、环境挑战、自身优势以及存在的问题四个方面内容展开探讨,并在此基础之上,从优化制度运行环境与制度自身完善两个方面对如何推动“新农保”制度建设提出了对策和建议。     

Nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of the three way receiver operating characteristic surface

In many situations the diagnostic decision is not limited to a binary choice. Binary statistical tools such as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC) need to be expanded to address three-category classification problem. Previous authors have suggest various ways to model the extension of AUC but not the ROC surface. Only simple parametric approaches are proposed for modeling the ROC measure under the assumption that test results all follow normal distributions. We study the estimation methods of three-dimensional ROC surfaces with nonparametric and semiparametric estimators. Asymptotical results are provided as a basis for statistical inference. Simulation studies are performed to assess the validity of our proposed methods in finite samples. We consider an Alzheimer's disease example from a clinical study in the US as an illustration. The nonparametric and semiparametric modelling approaches for the three way ROC analysis can be readily generalized to diagnostic problems with more than three classes.     

Bayesian partial likelihood approach for tied observations

The Bayesian analysis based on the partial likelihood for Cox's proportional hazards model is frequently used because of its simplicity. The Bayesian partial likelihood approach is often justified by showing that it approximates the full Bayesian posterior of the regression coefficients with a diffuse prior on the baseline hazard function. This, however, may not be appropriate when ties exist among uncensored observations. In that case, the full Bayesian and Bayesian partial likelihood posteriors can be much different. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian partial likelihood approach for many tied observations and justify its use.     

Cumulative correspondence analysis of ordered categorical data from industrial experiments

Most studies of quality improvement deal with ordered categorical data from industrial experiments. Accounting for the ordering of such data plays an important role in effectively determining the optimal factor level of combination. This paper utilizes the correspondence analysis to develop a procedure to improve the ordered categorical response in a multifactor state system based on Taguchi's statistic. Users may find the proposed procedure in this paper to be attractive because we suggest a simple and also popular statistical tool for graphically identifying the really important factors and determining the levels to improve process quality. A case study for optimizing the polysilicon deposition process in a very large-scale integrated circuit is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure.     

Reliability acceptance sampling plans for the Weibull distribution under accelerated Type-I censoring

Type-I censored reliability acceptance sampling plans (RASPs) are developed for the Weibull lifetime distribution with unknown shape and scale parameters such that the producer and consumer risks are satisfied. It is assumed that the life test is conducted at an accelerated condition for which the acceleration factor (AF) is known, and each item is continuously monitored for failure. Sensitivity analyses are also conducted to assess the effect of the uncertainty in the assumed AF on the actual producer and consumer risks, and a method is developed for constructing RASPs that can accommodate the uncertainty in AF.     

Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications.     

Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction

Summary.  Because many medical decisions are based on risk prediction models that are constructed from medical history and results of tests, the evaluation of these prediction models is important. This paper makes five contributions to this evaluation: the relative utility curve which gauges the potential for better prediction in terms of utilities, without the need for a reference level for one utility, while providing a sensitivity analysis for misspecification of utilities, the relevant region, which is the set of values of prediction performance that are consistent with the recommended treatment status in the absence of prediction, the test threshold, which is the minimum number of tests that would be traded for a true positive prediction in order for the expected utility to be non-negative, the evaluation of two-stage predictions that reduce test costs and connections between various measures of performance of prediction. An application involving the risk of cardiovascular disease is discussed.     

Forecasting obesity trends in England

Summary.  Forecasts of trends in obesity in England for 2010 are produced by treating the available data, which contain the proportions of the population, categorized by age and sex, falling into different body mass index ranges, as compositional data sets, so that the implicit simplex restrictions are automatically satisfied. Forecasts are calculated by using linear trend models for the log-ratio transformations and are accompanied by prediction regions. The advantages of treating data on proportions compositionally are emphasized and compared with forecasts that have been obtained by ignoring this restriction.