重思邻避困境的风险沟通与治理问题:基于核电的讨论

如何赢得民意和社会许可已经是目前国内核电风险设施选址过程中的主要障碍。而要破解该难题,我们既需要在微观层面针对潜在风险承担者的利益补偿,针对风险感知差异之重点群体开展理性沟通和共识协商,同时也更需要宏观层面的制度建设,通过制度化措施来缓解社会不信任,将我国在环评和社会稳评等风险沟通领域的相关制度安排落实为具体实践,并突破结构性障碍,在风险协商治理方面创新政治过程和制度,以制度的确定性来适应,甚至控制技术风险的不确定性。     

系统信任、风险感知与转基因水稻公众接受——基于三省市调查数据的分析

基于重庆、湖北、浙江三省市城镇居民的入户抽样调查数据,分析我国公众对转基因水稻的接受态度及区域差异。研究发现,转基因水稻的接受态度存在区域差异,湖北、重庆分样本的接受度明显高于浙江;从影响因素来看,总体上城镇居民转基因水稻接受态度主要是受粮食安全收益感知、对科技系统的信任程度、健康与环境风险感知等因素影响,分样本比较显示浙江城镇居民的态度较之重庆、湖北受到更多风险感知因素的影响。基于此,提出了农业科技风险管理中注重粮食安全、培育科学自生系统等建议。     

产品类型和感知风险对消费者属性同异选择的影响研究

前期的情境效应研究发现,相同属性同异选择集下的消费者选择行为完全相反,这为同异属性选择集下的消费者选择研究留下了悬而未决的矛盾.文章利用情境模拟实验法,将感知风险和产品类型纳入整合的研究框架,从感知、风险规避和效用等方面研究消费者属性同异选择行为.研究发现,高感知风险下消费者对趋同产品的选择显著多于低感知风险情形,而低感知风险情形下对趋异产品的选择则相反.同时,感知风险和产品类型对消费者属性同异选择存在交互作用,在高感知风险下对实用品的选择情形中,消费者倾向于趋同选择;在低感知风险下对享乐品的选择情形中,消费者偏好作出趋异选择;在其他情形下对消费者选择的影响则不显著.研究结论弥合了属性趋同效应和知觉聚焦效应的矛盾,对企业的同异策略选择提供了重要的参考依据.     

大型基础设施项目融资风险动态评价体系研究

提出以“融资风险阶段划分-分担-评价”为主线的融资风险评价体系。基于“新两阶段论”把融资风险划分为缔约阶段融资风险和履约阶段融资风险;针对划分后的融资风险,构建灰色关联度和TOPSIS法相结合的分担模型;利用遗传算法优化支持向量机,在融资风险分担完成后,对融资风险展开评价;以青岛胶州湾海底隧道为例进行实证研究。研究表明:该评价体系实现了“动态性”“针对性”和“准确性”,是科学合理的,可以为大型基础设施项目中各利益攸关方及时准确地掌握各自的融资风险状况提供帮助。     

国际工程项目的脆弱性与政治风险的相关性研究

在分析国际工程政治风险形成机理的基础上,通过文献综述法识别22个国际工程项目的脆弱性影响因素,并采用因子分析法建立国际工程项目的脆弱性评价指标;通过问卷调查法获得134个国际工程项目的信息和政治风险损失,并采用TOPSIS法测量其工程项目的脆弱性,分析两者的相关性。结果表明:政治风险是工程项目外部干扰和系统脆弱性相互耦合的结果,在相同干扰度下,国际工程项目的脆弱性与风险损失存在显著正相关。国际承包商可以依据工程项目的脆弱评价指标以及脆弱性与政治风险的关系,不断改善和降低工程项目的脆弱性,从而更好地应对政治风险,并形成自身的竞争优势。     

Reshaping Time: Recommendations for Suicide Prevention in LBGT Populations

ABSTRACT

This article serves as one of the supplementary pieces of this special issue on “Mapping Queer Bioethics,” in which we take a solipsistic turn to “map” the Journal of Homosexuality itself. Here, the author examines the journal’s 2011 consensus recommendations for the prevention of LGBT suicide. Invoking the axiom approach of Eve Kosovsky Sedgwick’s seminal Epistemology of the Closet, the author argues that merely offering practical guidelines at the level of the demonstrative and the instructive may not be sufficient models to address the urgency of suicide rates in LGBTQ youth populations.     

Your work may be killing you! Workaholism,sleep problems and cardiovascular risk

This study tests the relationships between workaholism (i.e. working excessively and compulsively), sleep problems and cardiovascular risk in 537 employees from five Spanish hospitals. Four types of worker (i.e. workaholics, positive workers, compulsive workers and hard workers) were distinguished, and their health indicators were compared. The results showed that workaholics experienced significantly more sleep problems (i.e. morning tiredness, sleeping while driving and sleeping fewer hours both on weekdays and at weekends, with poorer quality), had higher relative risk scores, and consumed more caffeine and alcohol than the other patterns of worker (positive, compulsive and hard workers). Further analyses revealed that sleep problems fully mediated the relationship between workaholism (i.e. working excessively and compulsively) and cardiovascular risk. The study emphasizes the fact that being a workaholic might be a significant risk factor for having sleep problems and cardiovascular disease.     

波动率偏斜与风险中性偏度能预测尾部风险吗

论文从S＆P 500指数期权数据中提取出波动率偏斜与风险中性偏度指标, 采用Logistic模型研究了波动率偏斜/风险中性偏度是否对未来真实的市场尾部风险具有预测力。结果发现, 波动率偏斜/风险中性偏度仅含有未来市场尾部风险的一定信息, 但并不能准确预测未来市场尾部风险发生的状态。相反, 波动率偏斜/风险中性偏度与投资者情绪指标显著相关。     

Managing Demand Risk in Tactical Supply Chain Planning for a Global Consumer Electronics Company

We consider the problem of managing demand risk in tactical supply chain planning for a particular global consumer electronics company. The company follows a deterministic replenishment‐and‐planning process despite considerable demand uncertainty. As a possible way to formally address uncertainty, we provide two risk measures, “demand‐at‐risk” (DaR) and “inventory‐at‐risk” (IaR) and two linear programming models to help manage demand uncertainty. The first model is deterministic and can be used to allocate the replenishment schedule from the plants among the customers as per the existing process. The other model is stochastic and can be used to determine the “ideal” replenishment request from the plants under demand uncertainty. The gap between the output of the two models as regards requested replenishment and the values of the risk measures can be used by the company to reallocate capacity among different products and to thus manage demand/inventory risk.     

Economic Evaluation of Scale Dependent Technology Investments

We study the effect of financial risk on the economic evaluation of a project with capacity decisions. Capacity decisions have an important effect on the project̂s value through the up‐front investment, the associated operating cost, and constraints on output. However, increased scale also affects the financial risk of the project through its effect on the operating leverage of the investment. Although it has long been recognized in the finance literature that operating leverage affects project risk, this result has not been incorporated in the operations management literature when evaluating projects. We study the decision problem of a firm that must choose project scale. Future cash flow uncertainty is introduced by uncertain future market prices. The firm's capacity decision affects the firm's potential sales, its expected price for output, and its costs. We study the firm's profit maximizing scale decision using the CAPM model for risk adjustment. Our results include that project risk, as measured by the required rate of return, is related to the inverse of the expected profit per unit sold. We also show that project risk is related to the scale choice. In contrast, in traditional discounted cash flow analysis (DCF), a fixed prescribed rate is used to evaluate the project and choose its scale. When a fixed rate is used with DCF, a manager will ignore the effect of scale on risk and choose suboptimal capacity that reduces project value. S/he will also misestimate project value. Use of DCF for choosing scale is studied for two special cases. It is shown that if the manager is directed to use a prescribed discount rate that induces the optimal scale decision, then the manager will greatly undervalue the project. In contrast, if the discount rate is set to the risk of the optimally‐scaled project, the manager will undersize the project by a small amount, and slightly undervalue the project with the economic impact of the error being small. These results underline the importance of understanding the source of financial risk in projects where risk is endogenous to the project design.