Two point priors and Γ-minimax estimating in families of uniform distributions

It is shown that when a parameter lying in a sufficiently small interval is to be estimated in a family of uniform distributions, a two point prior is least favourable under squared error loss. The unique Bayes estimator with respect to this prior is minimax. The Γ-minimax estimator is derived for sets Γ of priors consisting of all priors that give fixed probabilities to two specified subintervals of the parameter space if a two point prior is least favourable in Γ.     

关联理论视角下的隐喻翻译研究——以《抗击新冠肺炎疫情的中国行动》英译为例

借助Pragglejaz团队的“隐喻识别程序”对《抗击新冠肺炎疫情的中国行动》白皮书中的隐喻进行分类描述,从认知关联视角切入对各类隐喻翻译进行案例分析。为实现白皮书类外宣文本国际传播的最佳社会效益,最大语境效果、共同的语境假设以及交际传播的目的是译者在实现隐喻跨语际转换时的重要考量准则。     

王阳明“狂者胸次”与“圣人气象”的趋融

《尚书》中的“惟圣罔念作狂,惟狂克念作圣”在后世经学阐释中逐渐开启了“狂”与“圣”之间的分野,宋代以降屡有对“狂”“圣”分野的质疑与重释,明代关于“狂”与“圣”的讨论开始往“心学”之路上走。王阳明在致良知的思想框架中阐释“狂”及“狂者胸次”,“圣”及“圣人气象”。王阳明认为,狂者依良知真是真非而行,在行为上“嘐嘐圣人而行不揜”,有“凤凰翔于千仞气象”。他提出“圣人之道,吾性自足”,将成圣的根据牢牢安置于人的内心,“圣人之学,惟是致此良知而已”,将圣人之道与自己的致良知之学绾合起来,高屋建瓴地提出“圣人气象不在圣人而在我”。在他的思想中“狂”与“圣”渐趋弥合,在他的人格上“狂者胸次”与“圣人气象”也渐趋融合。“狂者胸次”与“圣人气象”趋融的关捩就在于“裁”。以“致良知”裁之,“狂”之资与“圣”之质在阳明的人格上趋于圆融自如。     

“健康丝绸之路”构建的“政府—社会”复合路径

借鉴社会运动理论,可探索一种融合了政府自上而下和社会自下而上进程的“政府—社会”复合路径,以构建“健康丝绸之路”。社会运动理论的三种视角可为这种复合路径的具体实施与需要关注的环节带来重要启发：首先,当前新冠肺炎疫情的跨国传播暴露了全球公共卫生治理体系存在的严重不足,凸显出构建补充型国际卫生合作模式的必要性与紧迫性;其次,推进“健康丝绸之路”的构建,需要政府和社会层面的协作,将“一带一路”沿线国家的资源充分调动起来,形成优势互补与资源共享。与此同时,要推进健康话语体系的完善,如倡导和促进“人类卫生健康共同体”理念的传播,通过话语和心理共鸣等民心相通的途径,促使国际社会采取联合行动以共同应对全球公共卫生危机。     

Retirement patterns in Hong Kong: a censored regression analysis

This paper provides an overview of retirement patterns in Hong Kong on the basis of limited data. A censored regression model is used to infer the retirement age from people‘s current retirement status and their current age. This model is equivalent to a restricted probit model, and the interpretation of parameters is straightforward. The results clearly show a negative income effect on the retirement decision. The retirement age seems to be positively related to lifetime earnings but negatively related to the rate of decline of earnings with age. JEL classification: C24, J14, J26 Received May 6, 1996 / Accepted February 5, 1997     

Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression

This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973). Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997     

De minimis and equity in risk

Indices and orderings are developed for evaluating alternative strategies in the management of risk. They reflect the goals of reducing individual and collective risks, of increasing equity, and of assigning priority to the reduction and to the equity of high risks. Individual risk is defined as the (random or non-random) level of exposure to a danger. In particular the role of a lower negligibility level is investigated. A class of indices is proposed which involves two parameters, a negligibility level and a parameter of inequality aversion, and several interpretations of the indices are discussed. We provide a set of eight axioms which are necessary and sufficient for this class of indices, and we present an approach to deal with partial information on the parameters.     

Behavioral evaluation of a state program of deinstitutionalization of the developmentally disabled

The purpose of this study was to evaluate one phase of a statewide program of deinstitutionalizing developmentally disabled individuals. Forty adults who had spent a minimum of six months in community placements were evaluated with respect to changes in behavior associated with movement out of state institutions and into community settings such as group homes and day activity centers. Pre- and post-deinstitutionalization measures were taken with the Behavior Development Survey. Post-deinstitutionalization measures on Cataldo and Risley's Resident Activity Manifest were compared to the same measures obtained on 159 developmentally disabled individuals scheduled for deinstitutionalization. A consistent pattern of positive changes on both instruments favored deinstitutionalization, but changes could not be unequivocally attributed to movement out of the institutions per se.     

An ISO 9001:2000-based framework for realizing quality in small businesses

The purpose of ISO 9001:2000 Quality Management System (QMS) is to provide businesses with a model to grow systematically while assuring the quality of their products. The validity of ISO 9001:2000 QMS stems, largely, from the fact that the best minds worldwide have contributed to its development and maintenance, and the fact that many companies have reported real business gains because of its implementation. Unfortunately, many small businesses fail to survive due to the absence or lack of adequate system for managing quality. An obvious recommendation would be to implement ISO 9001:2000 QMS. Nevertheless, small businesses often cite lack of resources and time as the main reasons for not implementing ISO 9001:2000 QMS.     

“鲁迅形象”建构的文化语境、过程与反思

"鲁迅形象"是中国现代文化史上典型的现代知识分子的形象符码,其生成过程与现代中国的动态语境密切相关,深刻地勾联了阐释者的文化心理和思维形态。"鲁迅形象"是由自塑和他塑合力而构成的公共形象,对其进行文化学意义上的考察可为探索现代中国发展的社会史和现代知识分子的心灵史提供理论资源。