幼小衔接中儿童适应性问题探析

儿童结束幼儿园生活到小学生活的过渡阶段中普遍存在着学习环境、人际关系、行为要求、活动方式等方面的适应不良问题，往往造成儿童学习积极性差、注意力不集中、焦虑紧张等情况。对此从幼儿园、小学、家庭三方面提出了相应的建议与对策，希望帮助儿童顺利地适应小学生活，完成角色的转变。     

Attenuating Initial Beliefs: Increasing the Acceptance of Anthropogenic Climate Change Information by Reflecting on Values

Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self‐affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self‐affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts.     

河南省城镇、农村中学体育教育均衡发展研究——基于豫南8市的调查研究

通过对教育均衡发展内涵的理解延伸至体育教育均衡发展的解读,运用文献资料法、问卷调查法以及数据统计法对豫南8市城镇、农村中学体育教育现状进行探究,并提出构建自身发展模式,平衡城乡资源分配,建立资源共享模式,完善监督激励政策,为促进城乡之间的均衡发展提供一定的参考。     

Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula

In risk assessment, the moment‐independent sensitivity analysis (SA) technique for reducing the model uncertainty has attracted a great deal of attention from analysts and practitioners. It aims at measuring the relative importance of an individual input, or a set of inputs, in determining the uncertainty of model output by looking at the entire distribution range of model output. In this article, along the lines of Plischke et al., we point out that the original moment‐independent SA index (also called delta index) can also be interpreted as the dependence measure between model output and input variables, and introduce another moment‐independent SA index (called extended delta index) based on copula. Then, nonparametric methods for estimating the delta and extended delta indices are proposed. Both methods need only a set of samples to compute all the indices; thus, they conquer the problem of the “curse of dimensionality.” At last, an analytical test example, a risk assessment model, and the levelE model are employed for comparing the delta and the extended delta indices and testing the two calculation methods. Results show that the delta and the extended delta indices produce the same importance ranking in these three test examples. It is also shown that these two proposed calculation methods dramatically reduce the computational burden.     

Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.     

Dose‐Response Models Incorporating Aerosol Size Dependency for Francisella tularensis

The effect of bioaerosol size was incorporated into predictive dose‐response models for the effects of inhaled aerosols of Francisella tularensis (the causative agent of tularemia) on rhesus monkeys and guinea pigs with bioaerosol diameters ranging between 1.0 and 24 μm. Aerosol‐size‐dependent models were formulated as modification of the exponential and β‐Poisson dose‐response models and model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood methods and multiple data sets of quantal dose‐response data for which aerosol sizes of inhaled doses were known. Analysis of F. tularensis dose‐response data was best fit by an exponential dose‐response model with a power function including the particle diameter size substituting for the rate parameter k scaling the applied dose. There were differences in the pathogen's aerosol‐size‐dependence equation and models that better represent the observed dose‐response results than the estimate derived from applying the model developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP, 1994) that relies on differential regional lung deposition for human particle exposure.     

论我国社会教育中的儿童参与权法律保障

在对儿童开展社会教育时，确保儿童的参与是极为重要的，但现实中儿童的参与严重不足，亟需法律保障。现行相关法律虽对于社会教育中的儿童参与权保障已经作了规定，但是这些规定存在诸多不足，难以有效保障社会教育中的儿童参与权，与《儿童权利公约》的要求不相适应。因此，我们应该尽快更新社会教育中的儿童参与权法律保障的理念，完善相关法律，促进相关法律的系统化，强化相关法律规范的可操作性，特别是要加强社会教育中的农村儿童参与权法律保障。     

教育主体缺失视角下农村校园欺凌成因及治理

家庭、村庄和学校是农村学生成长过程中的三个重要教育主体，三者相辅相成共同构成农村教育主体结构。农村中小学生正是在该结构中获得成长，而农村校园欺凌事件的频发和多发则与其变化相关。农村教育主体结构的变化包括三个方面：一是家庭教育主体的缺位，表现为农村家庭隔代抚育的“不过问”逻辑；二是村庄教育主体的缺位，表现为村庄交往中的村民相互“不得罪”的逻辑；三是学校主体的缺位，表现为学校管理中官僚主义的“不出事”逻辑。这些主体行为逻辑的变化，进而带来了三者之间良性互动的阻隔，包括家庭与学校勾连的中断、村庄对学生和家庭监管的缺位，以及学校对农村社会的脱嵌。治理农村校园欺凌事件，除了法制和规范进校之外，还要搭建新型的教育主体结构，形成多元化、多主体农村校园欺凌的治理格局。     

A Diversity Index for Model Space Selection in the Estimation of Benchmark and Infectious Doses via Model Averaging

In chemical and microbial risk assessments, risk assessors fit dose‐response models to high‐dose data and extrapolate downward to risk levels in the range of 1–10%. Although multiple dose‐response models may be able to fit the data adequately in the experimental range, the estimated effective dose (ED) corresponding to an extremely small risk can be substantially different from model to model. In this respect, model averaging (MA) provides more robustness than a single dose‐response model in the point and interval estimation of an ED. In MA, accounting for both data uncertainty and model uncertainty is crucial, but addressing model uncertainty is not achieved simply by increasing the number of models in a model space. A plausible set of models for MA can be characterized by goodness of fit and diversity surrounding the truth. We propose a diversity index (DI) to balance between these two characteristics in model space selection. It addresses a collective property of a model space rather than individual performance of each model. Tuning parameters in the DI control the size of the model space for MA.     

An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.