Assessing Engineering Resilience for Systems with Multiple Performance Measures

Recently, efforts to model and assess a system's resilience to disruptions due to environmental and adversarial threats have increased substantially. Researchers have investigated resilience in many disciplines, including sociology, psychology, computer networks, and engineering systems, to name a few. When assessing engineering system resilience, the resilience assessment typically considers a single performance measure, a disruption, a loss of performance, the time required to recover, or a combination of these elements. We define and use a resilient engineered system definition that separates system resilience into platform and mission resilience. Most complex systems have multiple performance measures; this research proposes using multiple objective decision analysis to assess system resilience for systems with multiple performance measures using two distinct methods. The first method quantifies platform resilience and includes resilience and other “ilities” directly in the value hierarchy, while the second method quantifies mission resilience and uses the “ilities” in the calculation of the expected mission performance for every performance measure in the value hierarchy. We illustrate the mission resilience method using a transportation systems‐of‐systems network with varying levels of resilience due to the level of connectivity and autonomy of the vehicles and platform resilience by using a notional military example. Our analysis found that it is necessary to quantify performance in context with specific mission(s) and scenario(s) under specific threat(s) and then use modeling and simulation to help determine the resilience of a system for a given set of conditions. The example demonstrates how incorporating system mission resilience can improve performance for some performance measures while negatively affecting others.     

新世纪城市交通发展态势及其影响——以南京市为例

以南京市为例 ,就决定大城市未来交通结构与模式的三种关键交通方式———小汽车、自行车、公共交通的发展前景、态势及其影响进行分析研究 ,以期为制定跨世纪的城市交通发展战略与政策提供依据     

抗战时期西部的航空运输业建设

抗战爆发后,为打破日军封锁和开展大后方正常对外贸易,国民政府采取了一系列措施以重庆为中心发展西部航空运输业.西部航空运输业在发展中呈现出航线变动频繁、航空运输建设服从军事需要为主等特点.西部航空运输业经过三个阶段的发展,在一定程度上支持了抗战,并推动了整个中国民航运输业的发展.但由于航空人才缺乏、航空制造技术落后等原因,西部航空运输业的发展又难尽人意.     

试论交通运输行为准则的形成与发展

交通运输行为准则作为特定行业的职业规范和职业道德 ,伴随着交通运输业的出现、发展而逐步形成和发展起来。从中国古代社会的礼让文明到当代社会的“安全优质、文明服务” ,这一变化过程表现出交通运输行业行为准则的独特性和社会关联性     

Influence of Safety Measures on the Risks of Transporting Dangerous Goods Through Road Tunnels

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of "native safety measures." In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important "nonnative safety measures" of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel.     

交通事业单位预算管理方式研究

针对我国交通事业单位在预算编制目标、预算编制方式中存在的问题,通过对国外预算编制方式的比较,就我国交通事业单位预算管理在预算编制目标确定、预算控制组织构建、预算控制方式和预算管理方法等方面提出了建设性的意见,以加强交通事业单位预算管理。     

基于合作博弈的易腐性产品运输设施选择的费用分配

易腐性产品的价值会随着时间而损失,运输易腐性产品时,客户除了支付运输费用外还需要承担产品的价值损失。本文把易腐性产品的价值损失和运输费用之和作为总费用,应用合作博弈理论,把易腐性产品的运输设施选择的费用分配问题构造成费用分配博弈,证明了在易腐性产品线性价值损失的情况下,运输设施选择博弈的核心非空,且为子模博弈,并讨论核仁、夏普利值、τ-值等解。论文最后讨论了有约束运输的设施选择的费用分配博弈的解的情况,说明其核心也许为空,并提出了进一步研究的方向。     

义和团运动与晚清漕粮运输

义和团运动对晚清的漕粮运输产生了重大影响.首先,义和团运动爆发后,八国联军侵华,占领津京等地区,慈禧太后挟光绪帝出逃,导致漕粮海运中断,并转而将部分漕粮向山西、陕西运送.其次.义和团运动被镇压后,朝廷被迫与联军签定<辛丑条约>,偿付巨额赔款,清朝的财政体系完全崩溃.为筹措赔款,清廷不得不颁布"漕粮改折诏".虽然江浙后来又恢复本色100万石,但漕运制度已经遭到致命打击.再次,为节省费用,清廷开始采纳铁路剥漕的方式,结果成为继轮船之后,漕粮运输工具史上的又一重大突破.简言之,义和团运动是晚清漕粮运输的转折点.     

ITS中汽车电子监测技术的研究与设计

针对交通系统的复杂性,提出了一种采用汽车电子技术的车辆安全行驶状况监测方案,对汽车行驶中的异常现象进行实时监测。系统采用组件化开发方式,并在此基础上创建了基本的监测模型。系统以组件的形式装配,易于开发、维护和管理,具有一定的实用性。     

1978年以来中国铁路运输区域差异统计分析与评价

区域经济发展的不平衡必然使得区域铁路运输具有差异性。利用1978-2005年的铁路运输数据，采用重心模型、变异系数和加权变异系数，从客运量、客运周转量、货运量和货运周转量4个方面，对中国铁路运输的区域差异进行了统计分析和评价。结果发现：1．客运量重心在逐步向西南方向移动，其中向西移动了2经度，向南移动了2．6纬度；铁路客运量区域差异在逐步减小。2．客运周转量重心呈直线形逐步向西南方向移动，其中，重心向西移动了2．3经度，向南移动了2．9纬度；铁路客运周转量区域差异整体上呈减小趋势，但其中波动较大，可以划分为5个阶段。3．货运量重心波动较大；货运量区域差异在逐渐增大，而且区域差异的增长幅度明显加大，两极分化越来越严重。4．货运周转量重心变化轨迹略呈指数型；货运周转量区域差异呈先减小后增大的趋势，2000年以前区域差异在减小，2000年以后区域差异在增大。