基尼系数合意值和警戒线的探讨

 近年来，很多学者对基尼系数的经验法则尤其是警戒线提出了质疑。本文首先分析了收入分配的合意类型，然后依据相对贫困、贫富差距及中等收入者的收入份额三个指标来界定合意的收入分配，最后根据合意收入分配确定基尼系数的合意值和警戒线。本文结论表明，0.3—0.4可以被认为是基尼系数的合意值,0.4作为基尼系数警戒线也是比较合理的。     

Geometric Method and Generalized Linear Models. Two Opposite Multiparametric Approaches Illustrated on a Sample of Pituitary Adenomas

We used two statistical methods to identify prognostic factors: a log-linear model (logistic and COX regression, based on the notions of linearity and multiplicative relative risk), and the CORICO method (ICOnography of CORrelations) based on the geometric significance of the correlation coefficient. We applied the methods to two different situations (a "case-control study' and a "historical cohort'). We show that the geometric exploratory tool is particularly suited to the analysis of small samples with a large number of variables. It could save time when setting up new study protocols. In this instance, the geometric approach highlighted, without preconceived ideas, the potential role of multihormonality in the course of pituitary adenoma and the unexpected influence of the date of tumour excision on the risk attached to haemorrhage.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

造假、治假的非合作博奕分析

简要介绍了我国假冒伪劣产品的现状及其带来的危害。应用非合作博奕理论，通过建立博奕模型，分析了假冒伪劣产品产生的根源和治理对策，并给出了对执法打假部门相应的奖励系数和对政府领导相应的罚款系数。     

恒流管的非稳系数和改进系数

引入非稳系数和改进系数分析了四种恒流管充电式扫描电路的非线性系数和电源利用系数 ,并提出了改进恒流管充电式扫描电路性能的具体方法 .     

Gini’s nuclear family

The purpose of this paper is to justify the use of the Gini coefficient and two close relatives for summarizing the basic information of inequality in distributions of income. To this end we employ a specific transformation of the Lorenz curve, the scaled conditional mean curve, rather than the Lorenz curve as the basic formal representation of inequality in distributions of income. The scaled conditional mean curve is shown to possess several attractive properties as an alternative interpretation of the information content of the Lorenz curve and furthermore proves to yield essential information on polarization in the population. The paper also provides asymptotic distribution results for the empirical scaled conditional mean curve and the related family of empirical measures of inequality.      

喷涂热分解法制备掺锑SnO_2电热膜的工艺及电学性能的研究

本文研究了热喷涂分解法制备Sb:SnO2电热膜的工艺及基体对电热膜电学性能的影响,并讨论了该膜的电阻温度系数的变化.实验表明:喷涂工艺对掺Sb的SnO2电热膜的电学性能有很大影响.     

Shrinkage confidence intervals for the normal mean: Using a guess for greater efficiency

If the unknown mean of a univariate population is sufficiently close to the value of an initial guess then an appropriate shrinkage estimator has smaller average squared error than the sample mean. This principle has been known for some time, but it does not appear to have found extension to problems of interval estimation. The author presents valid two‐sided 95% and 99% “shrinkage” confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution. These intervals are narrower than the usual interval based on the Student distribution when the population mean lies in such an “effective interval.” A reduction of 20% in the mean width of the interval is possible when the population mean is sufficiently close to the value of the guess. The author also describes a modification to existing shrinkage point estimators of the general univariate mean that enables the effective interval to be enlarged.     

我国产业间波及效应的探讨

从理论上来说,某一产业的变化会引起其它产业间的连锁反映。产业间的波及效应可以通过投入系数表来加以分析。通过实证分析,研究我国产业间波及效应的强弱,可以为国家制定产业政策、优化产业结构提供依据。     

A note on measures of similarity based on centrality

This note presents a measure of similarity between connected nodes in terms of centrality based on Euclidean distances, and compares it to ‘assortative mixing’ [Newman, M.E.J., 2002. Assortative mixing in networks. Physical Review Letters 89, 208701], which is based on Pearson correlation coefficient. This study suggests that the measure based on Euclidean distances may be more appropriate for relatively smaller (N < 500) and denser networks.