我国社会发展目标和创新动力

“全面小康社会”、“和谐社会”、“资源节约型、环境友好型社会”、“学习型社会”的建设,均离不开创新活动,尤其是“自主创新”。“自主创新”是提高科技水平和经济竞争力的关键,也是调整经济结构、转变经济增长方式的中心环节。     

论我国中小企业财务改进

我国的中、小企业数量众多,对地方经济发展和社会稳定起着举足轻重的作用。但是我国中、小企业的财务管理水平不高。为了加强中、小企业的财务管理,本文从人员配备、内部控制、完善中、小企业服务体系等方面进行了阐述。     

Strategies for Addressing the Nursing Shortage: Coordinated Decision Making and Workforce Flexibility

In this article, we present strategies to help combat the U.S. nursing shortage. Key considerations include providing an attractive work schedule and work environment—critical issues for retaining existing nurses and attracting new nurses to the profession—while at the same time using the set of available nurses as effectively as possible. Based on these ideas, we develop a model that takes advantage of coordinated decision making when managing a flexible workforce. The model coordinates scheduling, schedule adjustment, and agency nurse decisions across various nurse labor pools, each of differing flexibility levels, capabilities, and costs, allowing a much more desirable schedule to be constructed. Our primary findings regarding coordinated decision making and how it can be used to help address the nursing shortage include (i) labor costs can be reduced substantially because, without coordination, labor costs on average are 16.3% higher based on an actual hospital setting, leading to the availability of additional funds for retaining and attracting nurses, (ii) simultaneous to this reduction in costs, more attractive schedules can be provided to the nurses in terms of less overtime and fewer undesirable shifts, and (iii) the use of agency nurses can help avoid overtime for permanent staff with only a 0.7% increase in staffing costs. In addition, we estimate the cost of the shortage for a typical U.S. hospital from a labor cost perspective and show how that cost can be reduced when managers coordinate.     

Development of a Dose‐Response Model for SARS Coronavirus

In order to develop a dose‐response model for SARS coronavirus (SARS‐CoV), the pooled data sets for infection of transgenic mice susceptible to SARS‐CoV and infection of mice with murine hepatitis virus strain 1, which may be a clinically relevant model of SARS, were fit to beta‐Poisson and exponential models with the maximum likelihood method. The exponential model (k= 4.1 × l0²) could describe the dose‐response relationship of the pooled data sets. The beta‐Poisson model did not provide a statistically significant improvement in fit. With the exponential model, the infectivity of SARS‐CoV was calculated and compared with those of other coronaviruses. The does of SARS‐CoV corresponding to 10% and 50% responses (illness) were estimated at 43 and 280 PFU, respectively. Its estimated infectivity was comparable to that of HCoV‐229E, known as an agent of human common cold, and also similar to those of some animal coronaviruses belonging to the same genetic group. Moreover, the exponential model was applied to the analysis of the epidemiological data of SARS outbreak that occurred at an apartment complex in Hong Kong in 2003. The estimated dose of SARS‐CoV for apartment residents during the outbreak, which was back‐calculated from the reported number of cases, ranged from 16 to 160 PFU/person, depending on the floor. The exponential model developed here is the sole dose‐response model for SARS‐CoV at the present and would enable us to understand the possibility for reemergence of SARS.     

The Potential for Cannibalization of New Products Sales by Remanufactured Products*

The potential for cannibalization of new product sales by remanufactured versions of the same product is a central issue in the continuing development of closed‐loop supply chains. Practitioners have no fact‐based information to guide practice at firms and academics have no studies available to use as the basis for assumptions in models. We address the cannibalization issue by using auctions to determine consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for both new and remanufactured products. The auctions also allow us to better understand the potential impact of offering new and remanufactured products at the same time, which provides us insights into the potential for new product cannibalization. Our results indicate that, for the consumer and commercial products auctioned, there is a clear difference in WTP) for new and remanufactured goods. For the consumer product, there is scant overlap in bidders between the new and remanufactured products, leading us to conclude that the risk of cannibalization in this case is minimal. For the commercial product, there is evidence of overlap in bidding behavior, exposing the potential for cannibalization.     

Temptation and Taxation

We study optimal taxation when consumers have temptation and self‐control problems. Embedding the class of preferences developed by Gul and Pesendorfer into a standard macroeconomic setting, we first prove, in a two‐period model, that the optimal policy is to subsidize savings when consumers are tempted by “excessive” impatience. The savings subsidy improves welfare because it makes succumbing to temptation less attractive. We then study an economy with a long but finite horizon which nests, as a special case, the Phelps–Pollak–Laibson multiple‐selves model (thereby providing guidance on how to evaluate welfare in this model). We prove that when period utility is logarithmic, the optimal savings subsidies increase over time for any finite horizon. Moreover, as the horizon grows large, the optimal policy prescribes a constant subsidy, in contrast to the well known Chamley–Judd result.     

How Does Product Recovery Affect Quality Choice?

We study the impact of product recovery on a firm's product quality choice, where quality is defined as an observable performance measure that increases a consumer's valuation for the product. We consider three general forms of product recovery: (i) when product recovery reuses (after reprocessing) quality inducing components or material (e.g., remanufacturing), (ii) when product recovery does not reuse quality inducing components or material but it is overall profitable (e.g., cell phone recycling), and (iii) when product recovery is costly (but mandated by legislation, e.g., recycling of small appliances in the European Union). Using a stylized economic model, we show that the form of product recovery, recovery cost structure, and the presence of product take‐back legislation play an important role in quality choice. Generally speaking, product recovery increases the firm's quality choice, except for some instances of recovery form (ii). In addition, we find that product take‐back legislation can lead to higher quality choice as opposed to voluntary take‐back. We further demonstrate that both the firm and the consumers benefit from recovery form (ii), while both are worse off with recovery form (iii). However, environmental implications of the three recovery modes differ from their impact on consumer surplus and firm profit. While recovery forms (i) and (iii) reduce consumption and increase environmental benefits, the same is not true with recovery form (ii), which can increase consumption, potentially resulting in higher environmental impact.     

Fixed‐Effects Dynamic Panel Models,a Factor Analytical Method

We consider the estimation of dynamic panel data models in the presence of incidental parameters in both dimensions: individual fixed‐effects and time fixed‐effects, as well as incidental parameters in the variances. We adopt the factor analytical approach by estimating the sample variance of individual effects rather than the effects themselves. In the presence of cross‐sectional heteroskedasticity, the factor method estimates the average of the cross‐sectional variances instead of the individual variances. The method thereby eliminates the incidental‐parameter problem in the means and in the variances over the cross‐sectional dimension. We further show that estimating the time effects and heteroskedasticities in the time dimension does not lead to the incidental‐parameter bias even when T and N are comparable. Moreover, efficient and robust estimation is obtained by jointly estimating heteroskedasticities.     

The Bubble Game: An Experimental Study of Speculation

We propose a bubble game that involves sequential trading of an asset commonly known to be valueless. Because no trader is ever sure to be last in the market sequence, the game allows for a bubble at the Nash equilibrium when there is no cap on the maximum price. We run experiments both with and without a price cap. Structural estimation of behavioral game theory models suggests that quantal responses and analogy‐based expectations are important drivers of speculation.     

Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

We argue that positive co‐movements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land‐price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the co‐movements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: We introduce land as a collateral asset in firms' credit constraints, and we identify a shock that drives most of the observed fluctuations in land prices. Our estimates imply that these two features combine to generate an empirically important mechanism that amplifies and propagates macroeconomic fluctuations through the joint dynamics of land prices and business investment.