Phase-shifting common cycles and common trends

In this paper, we outline a framework for modelling and analysing economic fluctuations and dynamics. It is assumed that there may exist common trends and common cycles in the time series to be analysed It is further generalised that common cycles may have non-coincident, or phase-shifting attributes These attributes are examined via the Markov transition matrix in a VAR system, revealing the way in which the phase-shifting works with the reduced rank Markov transition matrix. The links with the structural common trend model are also presented.     

“应用光学”双语教学研究与实践

随着大学毕业生人数的与日俱增,用人单位录用机制的转变,大学生就业问题逐渐成为一个群体性的难题.就高校而言,为解决这一难题,必须改革滞后的毕业生就业指导模式,使缺乏系统性、针对性的就业指导向职业生涯规划辅导转变.高校应从学生入学开始,就对其进行职业生涯规划教育,帮助、指导学生正确地分析自身的条件和就业环境,引导他们确立合适的职业目标,并督促其落实到实际行动中去.     

Turbo-DFH迭代译码算法

针对Turbo-DFH系统的特点,提出了修改的SOVA算法,用于迭代译码过程中子译码器软输出的计算。在AWGN信道下,对Turbo-DFH系统的性能进行了计算机仿真。仿真结果表明Turbo-DFH系统的误比特率性能比采用维特比检测算法的传统DFH系统有明显改善。     

城市化发展中的人口与经济增长

基于非线性理论,针对人口增长和经济发展中的非线性现象,根据城市化发展中的人口和经济这两个主要因子的制约关系,建立了人口-经济模型,并对其进行了运动稳定性和动力学特性的分析。人口-经济模型的建立,可为城市化发展中的人口与经济增长问题提供定量分析的依据。     

浅析我国社会转型时期仇富心态

我国社会转型以来,由于各种原因一些人产生了仇富心态.这种仇富心态如果得不到及时疏导和排解,发展到一定程度会危害社会安定,不利于我国社会主义和谐社会的构建.要充分认识仇富心态的现实表现及影响,探寻消除仇富心态的方法,为我国全面建设小康社会提供一个安定的社会和心理环境.     

Statistical methodology for assessing homology of intronic regions of genes

We consider the problem of statistically evaluating the similarity of DNA intronic regions of genes. Present algorithms are based on matching a sequence of interest with known DNA sequences in a gene bank and are designed primarily to assess homology among exonic regions of genes. Most research focuses on exonic regions because they have a clear biological significance, coding for proteins, and therefore tend to be more conserved in evolution than intronic regions. To investigate whether the intronic features of genes whose expression is highly sensitive to environmental perturbations differ from genes that have a more constant expression, a collection of oncogenes, tumor suppressor genes, and nonregulatory genes involved in energy metabolism are compared. An analysis of the features of these genes' intronic regions result in clustering by regulatory group. In addition, Billingsley's test for Markov structure (1961) suggests that 67% of the intronic regions in this collection of genes show evidence of nonrandom structure, indicating the possibility of a biological function for these regions. The result of Billingsley's test for homology is used as input to a clustering algorithm. The biological significance of this methodology lies in the identification of groups based on the intronic regions from genes of unknown function. With the advent of rapid sequencing techniques, there is a great need for statistical techniques to help identify the purpose of poorly understood portions of genes. These methods can be utilized to assess the functional group to which such a gene might possibly belong.     

Agriculture,communities, and new social movements: East European ruralities in the process of restructuring

This paper examines the usefulness of the new social movements (NSMs) paradigm in the changing context of East European post-communist societies and their agricultural systems and rural communities. Starting with statements formulated in Western sociology in the context of Western democratic societies about NSMs as a protest against modernity, the paper analyses the role of such movements in the still modernizing Eastern European reality. The first part of the paper briefly examines some basic elements of the NSMs paradigm in European and American social science. The goal of this section is not only to identify the basic characteristics of NSMs, but also to identify the typical frames used by them. The second part of the paper focuses on the presence of NSMs in the communist era. Drawing on the idea of NSMs as indicators of a ‘post-materialist shift’ as well as of ‘anti-establishment’ and ‘pro-participatory democracy’, the paper examines the frames of democratic opposition in Eastern Europe before 1989. The final part of the paper considers several selected examples from Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic to explore the role of NSMs in the process of shaping new ruralities during the post-communist transformation.     

Bayesian inference and model comparison for asymmetric smooth transition heteroskedastic models

Inference, quantile forecasting and model comparison for an asymmetric double smooth transition heteroskedastic model is investigated. A Bayesian framework in employed and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme is designed. A mixture prior is proposed that alleviates the usual identifiability problem as the speed of transition parameter tends to zero, and an informative prior for this parameter is suggested, that allows for reliable inference and a proper posterior, despite the non-integrability of the likelihood function. A formal Bayesian posterior model comparison procedure is employed to compare the proposed model with its two limiting cases: the double threshold GARCH and symmetric ARX GARCH models. The proposed methods are illustrated using both simulated and international stock market return series. Some illustrations of the advantages of an adaptive sampling scheme for these models are also provided. Finally, Bayesian forecasting methods are employed in a Value-at-Risk study of the international return series. The results generally favour the proposed smooth transition model and highlight explosive and smooth nonlinear behaviour in financial markets.     

网格计算环境下的虚拟组织管理模型研究

20世纪60年代以来,企业所处的环境发生了根本性的变化。顾客需求日趋多样化和个性化,市场竞争更加激烈,企业的竞争优势很大程度上取决于企业本身的市场应变能力。基于此,虚拟组织管理应运而生。本文对网格计算环境下的虚拟组织管理进行模型研究,建立起网格计算环境下虚拟组织管理中信息传递的最优化模型,并与非网格计算环境下的模型进行比较分析,论证了网格计算环境下的虚拟组织管理具有高效数据处理和充分利用闲置资源的优势,因而是未来虚拟组织管理发展的趋势和方向。     

论国家是当代中国农村土地法律制度发展的重要推动力

制度的变迁有强制性变迁与诱致性变迁之分。在中国农村土地法律制度变迁的历程中,国家始终发挥着极为重要的影响。理论与中国土地的现实情况为国家作为当今中国农村土地法律制度变迁的重要推动力提供了坚实依据。