Conditional intensity: A powerful tool for modelling and analysing point process data

The conditional intensity function of a spatial point process describes how the probability that a point of the process occurs ‘at’ a particular point in its carrier space depends on the realisation of the process in the remainder of the carrier space. Provided that the point process is simple, the conditional intensity determines all of the properties of the process, in particular its likelihood function. In this paper, we review the use of the conditional intensity function in the formulation of point process models and in making inferences from point process data, giving separate consideration to temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal settings. We argue that the conditional intensity function should take centre-stage in spatiotemporal point process modelling and analysis.     

Dynamic network analysis of contact diaries

Analyzing two-mode networks linking actors to events they attend may help to uncover the structure and evolution of social networks. This classic social network insight is particularly valuable in the analysis of data extracted from contact diaries where contact events produce — and at the same time are the product of relations among participants. Contact events may comprise any number of actors meeting at a specific point in time. In this paper we recall the correspondence between two-mode actor–event networks and hypergraphs, and propose relational hyperevent models (RHEM) as a general modeling framework for networks of time-stamped multi-actor events in which the diarist (“ego”) simultaneously meets several of her alters. RHEM can estimate event intensities associated with each possible subset of actors that may jointly participate in events, and test network effects that may be of theoretical or empirical interest. Examples of such effects include preferential attachment, prior shared activity (familiarity), closure, and covariate effects explaining the propensity of actors to co-attend events. Statistical tests of these effects can uncover processes that govern the formation and evolution of informal groups among the diarist’s alters. We illustrate the empirical value of RHEM using data comprising almost 2000 meeting events of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher with her cabinet ministers, transcribed from contact diaries covering her first term in office (1979–1983).     

我国农产品期货价格波动率分析

对日收盘价格收益率及其收益率平方值进行自相关分析,讨论其波动聚集性;使用ARCH类模型对日收盘价格波动率进行分析,以找到其日波动率的性质及规律。     

西部家园的立体建构——析万小雪的诗情世界

万小雪的诗视野开闼、情感真挚,立足于西部地域文化.从陇南天水梦乡到河西风情,从西部女性的多方位观照到西部历史文化的追溯,诗人逐步建构起壮美与柔美并存的诗意家园,实现了西部家园的多层次、立体化建构.     

Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates—successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths—are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.     

我国股份有限公司累积投票制度法律理论与实务问题研究

公司股东投票制度的目的在于实现股东的表决权利,从而促进公司的健康发展和社会经济的发展。但是随着现代市场国际化进程的加快和我国经济的跳跃式发展,以及公司内部股权结构等问题的影响,中小股东的合法权益无法得到充分的保护,因此完善我国累积投票制度,对保护中小股东权益具有积极作用。     

新闻专业应用型人才培养模式研究及实践——基于汕头大学新闻传播本科教学的改革

以汕头大学长江新闻与传播学院应用型新闻人才的成功模式为例,分析其适时调整发展战略,采取一系列与时俱进、合乎全球化时代新闻传播需要的创新措施。     

空间认识论视阈下的文艺人类学

文艺人类学是文艺学与人类学交叉结合的新型边缘学科。在空间认识论观照下,其研究范式实现了由现代主义到后现代主义的转换,科学的文艺人类学走向了诗学的文艺人类学。文艺学和人类学的交叉出场,为完整地理解诗学的文艺人类学提供了“人类学的文艺”和“文艺的人类学”这双重视角。     

晋中传统院落的空间限定与社会意识

院落住宅是我国传统的居住形式,晋中院落建筑由于商业文化和防御意识等多元影响,形制、组合布局和风格特征呈现出鲜明的地方特征,是传统院落空间的典型代表。作者结合实地考察的资料,分析了晋中院落的墙、门等空间限定要素的具体形式和限定作用,研究结果表明,传统院落不仅满足了居住的功能要求,而且是地域条件、社会意识和伦理意蕴的综合反映。     

德国空间规划与城市规划协同机制及其比较研究

德国空间规划的管理体制注重构造空间整治规划与城市建设指导规划的协同机制,它集中体现在协同机制的法律基础、协同机制的组织制度基础、协同机制的程序制度基础以及实现协同机制的途径与工具等方面。从德国空间规划协同机制角度出发,与我国空间规划现行的机制进行比较研究,探讨改善我国空间规划协同机制诸问题。