论《易大传》的朴素辩证法思想

《易大传》总结了先秦时期的朴素辩证法，形成了比较完备的体系，取得了独特的成就。主要是：发展了阴阳概念，使之上升为表述事物对立同一关系普遍原理的哲学范畴；研究了对立面之间的关系以及它们推动事物发展的作用，着重揭示了对立双方的交感、和谐是生命流程之创造、发展的根据；赋予辩证发展观以价值意义，并提炼为“刚健、笃实、辉光、日新”的“健行”精神，从而对于人生意义具有重大影响。这就奠定了中国古代哲学朴素辩证方法的理论基础，使中国古代哲学形成了自己的特点与独有的价值     

论唐前小说中的祈雨文化

祈雨属于祈禳术之一,与民间信仰、巫术、宗教等息息相关。不论受何种因素影响而产生,其文化内涵有共通之处,都寄寓着农耕时代的人们对生命的珍视,对风调雨顺的祈请与诉求。不少史料文献对祈雨皆有相关记载,唐前小说则以自己的方式对此加以呈现：祈雨的主体不受身份限制,普通民众、仕人、术士皆可参与,但主要为仕人与术士;祈雨仪式不拘一格,民间自发举行的较为简单、随意,重在书写施法者、法术的神异、祭祀主体的德行、祷祝的最终结果,受远古遗留的“万物有灵”“巫术”等思想影响较深。祈祷的神灵有山川树木等自然神、神话传说中的神仙、龙等,杂糅了儒释道等多种思想,有一定的地域色彩。官府发起的程式严整规范,且繁冗、复杂,意在区分等级,彰显对天神的虔诚与敬畏,以及心系苍生的民本思想、农业兴邦的治国理念。唐前小说对祈雨主体、仪式,以及祝祷神灵的书写,反映了当时人们真实的生存状况,有着深厚的文化蕴涵。     

为非公有制经济健康发展营造良好环境──关于加强非公有制经济宣传思想工作的思考

个体私营等非公有制经济要健康发展,必须有一个良好的环境,经过改革开放20年的努力,当前的非公有制经济发展环境已有极大的改善,但由于历史的原因,还存在种种不尽如人意的地方。为此,本文就如何加强非公有制经济宣传思想工作,为非公有制经济营造更好的发展环境,提出了若干见解。     

On inference for Kendall's τ within a longitudinal data setting

Kendall's τ is a non-parametric measure of correlation based on ranks and is used in a wide range of research disciplines. Although methods are available for making inference about Kendall's τ, none has been extended to modeling multiple Kendall's τs arising in longitudinal data analysis. Compounding this problem is the pervasive issue of missing data in such study designs. In this article, we develop a novel approach to provide inference about Kendall's τ within a longitudinal study setting under both complete and missing data. The proposed approach is illustrated with simulated data and applied to an HIV prevention study.     

Inference for the Mean Residual Life Function via Empirical Likelihood

In addition to the distribution function, the mean residual life (MRL) function is the other important function which can be used to characterize a lifetime in survival analysis and reliability. For inference on the MRL function, some procedures have been proposed in the literature. However, the coverage accuracy of such procedures may be low when the sample size is small. In this article, an empirical likelihood (EL) inference procedure of MRL function is proposed and the limiting distribution of the EL ratio for MRL function is derived. Based on the result, we obtain confidence interval/band for the MRL function. The proposed method is compared with the normal approximation based method through simulation study in terms of coverage probability.     

Extreme probabilities for contingency tables under row and column independence with application to fisher's exact test

Theorerms are proved for the maxima and minima of IIR_i!/IIC_j!/T!II_yij ! over r× c contingcncy tables Y=(y_ij) with row sums R₁,…,R_r, column sums C₁,…,C_c, and grand total T. These results are imlplemented into the network algorithm of Mehta and Patel (1983) for computing the P-value of Fisher's exact test for unordered r×c contingency tables. The decrease in the amount of computing time can be substantial when the column sums are very different.     

Best linear predictors for factor scores

From the literature three types of predictors for factor scores are available. These are characterized by the constraints: linear, linear conditionally unbiased, and linear correlation preserving. Each of these constraints generates a class of predictors. Best predictors are defined in terms of Lowner's partial matrix order applied to matrices of mean square error of prediction. It is shown that within the first two classes a best predictor exists and that it does not exist in the third.     

Bayesian estimation and influence diagnostics of generalized partially linear mixed-effects models for longitudinal data

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to obtain the joint estimates of unknown parameters, nonparametric functions and random effects in generalized partially linear mixed models (GPLMMs), and presents three case deletion influence measures to identify influential observations based on the φ-divergence, Cook's posterior mean distance and Cook's posterior mode distance of parameters. Fisher's iterative scoring algorithm is developed to evaluate the posterior modes of parameters in GPLMMs. The first-order approximation to Cook's posterior mode distance is presented. The computationally feasible formulae for the φ-divergence diagnostic and Cook's posterior mean distance are given. Several simulation studies and an example are presented to illustrate our proposed methodologies.     

基于辅助粒子滤波的DSGE模型识别方法及应用

动态随机一般均衡模型中涵盖无法直接观测的变量,同时跨方程约束涉及复杂的非线性关系使方程的解析估计难以实现。在贝叶斯框架下识别动态随机一般均衡模型,基于状态空间方法建立度量方程和状态转移方程,采用辅助粒子滤波预测条件后验分布,建立贝叶斯误差带描述宏观经济变量脉冲响应函数的动态特征。实际数据分析验证了贝叶斯识别方法的有效性。