Adaptive Test for Periodicity in Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models

This article is devoted to the study of the periodicity testing problem in a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. The local asymptotic normality (LAN) property is shown via the adapted sufficient conditions due to Swensen (1985 Swensen , A. R. ( 1985 ). The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio for autoregressive time series with a regression trend . Journal of Multivariate Analysis 16 : 54 – 70 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Moreover, the LAN of the central sequence is established. First, we consider the case where the innovation density is specified and we obtain a parametric local asymptotic test. Second, we construct an adaptive test in the case where this density is unspecified but symmetric. The performances of these established tests are shown via simulation studies.     

Further Results on Order Statistics Generated by Two Simulation Methods

Uniform order statistics generated by two simulation methods are compared by means of Pitman’s measure of closeness. This measure, as a probability, is shown to be asymptotically 1/2. Some results are also established for fixed points of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for a uniform order statistic. These fixed points are important for calculations involving the joint distribution of these order statistics.     

Social Change and Social Policy in Japan

This paper aims to present and discuss social change and social policy in Japan after the mid-20th century from a sociological viewpoint. Japanese social change and social policy from the mid-20th century onward can be categorized into three models in chronological order: escape from mass poverty by means of industrialization, improvement of the social security system to establish a welfare state, and parallel progress of aspiration for a welfare society and workfare. Defined concretely, these are (1) the period that established and improved social security, which started immediately after the end of World War II and ended in 1973, when Japan began to suffer from low growth after enjoying high growth; (2) the period in which finance for social security was adjusted, halfway through which the country experienced a bubble economy; and (3) the period after the 1990s, in which the structural reform of social security went hand-in-hand with labor policy and the advent of globalization. In each of the three periods, the direction of social policy was affected by factors that caused changes in such areas as industrial structure (the decline of agriculture), demographic structure (an aging society), and family structure and work pattern (the growing trend of nuclear families, single-person households, and irregular employment). In Japan, life security now attracts increasing attention, and employment security rather than social security has been the central issue. As it is greatly affected by globalization, employment security grows less conspicuous and makes the vulnerability of social security grow more conspicuous. Social policy has the potential to become an area with which to struggle for national integration and fissures between social groups.     

An analysis of variables affecting length of stay in foster care

The purpose of this paper was to find out whether the relationship between type of contact with agency and/or child in foster care and average number of contacts over time makes any difference in length of stay in foster care. Four types of contacts were examined: Family—Agency, Family Initiated—Agency, Social Worker—Initiated, and Family—Child. Results indicated that there were critical numbers for each contact type found to be statistically significant that would tend to reduce the length of the child's stay in foster care. The importance of contact during the first month of placement was emphasized.     

Barriers to the Uptake of Emergency Accommodation by Young Runaways and Thrown‐out children and the Role of the ‘Transitional Person’

Young runaways and thrown‐out children, under‐16, face a number of barriers to accessing safe emergency accommodation. The need for such accommodation is not always apparent because children sometimes make themselves invisible to services through fear of being returned or fear of being removed from inappropriate accommodation. Young people's retrospective accounts of their experiences suggest the importance of a ‘transitional person’, an adult who has a pivotal role in trust‐building and who acts as a conduit to services and helps runaway and thrown‐out children overcome internal and external barriers to uptake of emergency accommodation.     

Disability and employment policy in the Israeli welfare state: between exclusion and inclusion

Based on the social model(s) of disability, this article seeks to analyse the historical development of Israeli employment policy toward disabled people during the first decade and a half of its existence (1948–1965). Findings from primary and secondary sources suggest that throughout this period disabled people, mainly immigrants, found themselves at the lowest echelons of Israeli society and the labour market. Furthermore, the Israeli welfare state offers an interesting case study of the gap between a welfare state’s stated adherence to social justice and the more limited, and even contradictory, outcomes of its policies. Our discussion suggests that a valuable way of reframing our findings can be found in the critique of de-commodification as an inadequate concept and in the use of related concepts such as re-commodification and quasi-commodification.     

上海国资引领战略性新兴产业发展

上海国资在战略性新兴产业发展中有其独特的优势,同时也存在一系列问题。明确提出上海国资发展战略性新兴产业的战略目标、战略定位,正确选择上海国资战略性新兴产业的重点发展领域,系统论述上海国资引领战略性新兴产业发展的具体路径,提出六种发展模式和七大产业平台建设,以及上海国资引领战略性新兴产业发展的主要配套政策措施等。     

Are Hearing Voices Networks Compatible with Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Psychosis?

The most extensively evaluated intervention for auditory hallucinations is Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Psychosis (CBTp), which is usually delivered in statutory settings by experienced clinicians. In contrast, peer support networks, such as the Hearing Voices Network (HVN), operate informally using peers to normalise and manage voices. This article compares these two approaches to identify points of synergy and difference. Its analysis suggests the two approaches share many features, but also deviate in important ways that could compensate for each other. Instead of competing with each other as might first be thought, they may actually be complementary. Further, HVN may align comfortably with the values and principles of social work. Social workers seeking to engage with voice hearers may be advised to study the underlying principles of each approach to guide the way in which they can capitalise on intervention opportunities to better assist voice hearers.     

Women’s Movements in Portugal and Spain: Democratic Processes and Policy Outcomes

Portugal and Spain underwent dramatic transformations between 1974 and the early 1980s, transitioning from dictatorships to democracies. In this article I explore why Portugal was faster than Spain in adopting key gender-rights policies (e.g., divorce, equal pay, state feminism) during the period in question. Bridging insights from the democratization, social movement, and women’s studies literatures, I argue that Portugal’s accelerated policy path on women’s rights can be explained by three complex factors: (1) the nature of the revolutionary transition, which structured options for women’s movements and for institutional actors; (2) the configuration of movement-party alliances; and (3) supranational pressures to reorganize the state-civil society relationship. The study contributes to the engendering of democratization processes in Iberia by paying close attention to the interconnected agency of women’s movements with other political actors at a time of regime transformation.