最大最小化原则:功利主义和公平的社会契约

在学术上,“公平”这一概念深刻地影响着如何对人的行为进行描述。而一旦涉及到对“公平”含义的理解,则表现得相当复杂。论文着重阐述的是罗尔斯（Rawls）、穆勒、哈萨尼（John Hansanyi）以及宾默（Ken Binmore）在此问题上的不同观点。罗尔斯提出了著名的公平正义原则;穆勒对罗尔斯的两个原则、哈萨尼对罗尔斯的平均主义（最大最小化原则）提出了质疑,而宾默则通过在公平社会契约形成的过程中引入“生存博弈”和“道德博弈”的概念,并通过引入“移情偏好”这一分析工具,重塑了一个可以判断“平均主义”和“功利主义”并非永不相容的理论模型。      

On fair compensation

This paper analyses the problems arising in the pure exchange fair division model, when some dimensions of the resources are personal, fixed, and cannot be redistributed. The remaining resources must then be allocated in a compensatory way. A set of desirable normative properties is defined. No-envy satisfies these properties, but is not generally non-empty in this setting and other criteria are examined, for which existence results are given. General impossibility results obtain. In particular, it is generally impossible to compensate fully and only for differential personal resources, when preferences differ.     

Child Care Preferences of Foreign-Born Immigrant Groups in California

This study using California Health Interview Survey 2005 Child Survey data presents disparities among three major immigrant groups' child care preferences. Asian immigrant families used a grandparent or a relative care and a preschool more than Latino and European immigrant families. Latino immigrant families used child care from a nonfamily member in the provider's home and Head Start more than Asian and European immigrant families. To understand the predictors of time spent in child care by California's immigrant children, a multiple regression analysis was run. Being a child from an Asian immigrant family, child's age, being a girl, and being a child from a single mother-headed immigrant family emerged as predictors explaining 17.2% of the variance in the amount of time spent in child care. Variations in child care usage among immigrant groups warrant concern and suggest a need for culturally sensitive child care programs for immigrants.     

国民生育心理的必然性与不确定性

国民生育心理是有着其历史的、生物的客观基础,它有着不为外在条件所左右的客观必然性,但随着制约条件的变化,其生育意愿也会发生一些非实质性的改变。     

Proper and Standard Risk Aversion in Two-Moment Decision Models

For linear distribution classes, mean-variance and expected utility specifications have been shown in the literature to be fully compatible when studying the concepts of risk aversion, prudence, risk vulnerability and temperance. This paper shows that such compatibility does hold for the concept of standard risk aversion but not for the concepts of proper risk aversion and proper prudence.Jel Classification: D81     

How can an expert system help in choosing the optimal decision?

We introduce a rationality principle for a preference relation on an arbitrary set of lotteries. Such a principle is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an expected utility agreeing with . The same principle also guarantees a rational extension of the preference relation to any larger set of lotteries. When the extended relation is unique with respect to the alternatives under consideration, the decision maker does not need a numerical evaluation in order to make a choice. Such a rationality condition needs little information in order to be applied, and its verification amounts to solving a linear system.The present research is supported by the Research Contract of CNR (Research National Council) 1989 and 1990 Decision Models under uncertainty and risk, for expert systems with incomplete and revisable information.     

Targeted estimation of state occupation probabilities for the non-Markov illness-death model

We use semi-parametric efficiency theory to derive a class of estimators for the state occupation probabilities of the continuous-time irreversible illness-death model. We consider both the setting with and without additional baseline information available, where we impose no specific functional form on the intensity functions of the model. We show that any estimator in the class is asymptotically linear under suitable assumptions about the estimators of the intensity functions. In particular, the assumptions are weak enough to allow the use of data-adaptive methods, which is important for making the identifying assumption of coarsening at random plausible in realistic settings. We suggest a flexible method for estimating the transition intensity functions of the illness-death model based on penalized Poisson regression. We apply this method to estimate the nuisance parameters of an illness-death model in a simulation study and a real-world application.     

考虑消费者偏好差异的网络视频平台和广告商决策研究

付费和免费并存是近年来涌现的网络视频提供新模式。本文针对同时提供付费和免费视频的网络视频运营平台以及向平台投放广告的广告商，考虑存在不同消费者偏好主导的市场环境下，探讨基于视频热度的平台视频划分策略、订阅费定价以及广告商的广告投放策略。研究结果表明：(1)在以视频热度为主导的消费者市场中，随着消费者对视频热度的敏感系数增大，平台会提高订阅费价格，同时广告商会提高广告投放水平；随着免费消费者规模给广告商带来的网络外部性强度的提升，广告商会提高广告投放水平，平台会提高订阅费价格并减少免费视频的提供。(2)在以付费意愿为主导的消费者市场中，当广告投放价格较高时，随着消费者对视频热度的敏感系数增大，平台提高免费视频比例；随着免费消费者规模给广告商带来的网络外部性强度的提升，广告商会提高广告投放水平，平台会增加免费视频的提供比例。(3)随着视频热度为主导的消费者规模的扩大，平台提供的免费视频比例会降低，而订阅费定价则会提高；随着付费意愿为主导的消费者规模的扩大，则反之。当以视频热度为主导的消费者规模较大时，广告商不会向平台投放广告。本文的研究成果对网络视频的平台运营商和广告商有一定的管理启示与应...     

基于公众偏好大数据分析的大群体应急决策质量动态演化研究

针对突发事件大群体应急决策质量及其影响因素的问题，探讨了公众参与视角下突发事件演化的全生命周期，以及各阶段下公众风险感知对应急决策质量的影响，并以“8·12天津港爆炸”为背景案例进行分析。首先，阐述了公众偏好大数据的获取及处理方式，并以此对“8·12天津港爆炸”案例的公众偏好大数据进行预处理和可视化；其次，通过TF-IDF算法提取并量化公众风险感知，建立大群体应急决策质量打分函数，衡量不同阶段的应急决策质量；最后，基于“8·12天津港爆炸”案例的微博数据进行大群体应急决策质量的动态演化分析，得出研究结论和启示。实证表明，所提的模型与方法具有较新颖的研究视角，能够为大数据背景下的应急响应和政府决策提供理论支持和方法辅助。     

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on birth satisfaction in a prospective cohort of 2,341 U.S. women

ProblemBirth satisfaction is an important health outcome that is related to postpartum mood, infant caretaking, and future pregnancy intention.BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected antenatal care and intrapartum practices that may reduce birth satisfaction.AimTo investigate the extent to which pandemic-related factors predicted lower birth satisfaction.Methods2341 women who were recruited prenatally in April–May 2020 and reported a live birth between April–October 2020 were included in the current analysis. Hierarchical linear regression to predict birth satisfaction from well-established predictors of birth satisfaction (step 1) and from pandemic-related factors (step 2) was conducted. Additionally, the indirect associations of pandemic-related stress with birth satisfaction were investigated.FindingsThe first step of the regression explained 35% of variance in birth satisfaction. In the second step, pandemic-related factors explained an additional 3% of variance in birth satisfaction. Maternal stress about feeling unprepared for birth due to the pandemic and restrictions on companions during birth independently predicted lower birth satisfaction beyond the non-pandemic variables. Pandemic-related unpreparedness stress was associated with more medicalized birth and greater incongruence with birth preference, thus also indirectly influencing birth satisfaction through a mediation process.DiscussionWell-established contributors to birth satisfaction remained potent during the pandemic. In addition, maternal stress and restriction on accompaniment to birth were associated with a small but significant reduction in birth satisfaction.ConclusionStudy findings suggest that helping women set flexible and reasonable expectations for birth and allowing at least one intrapartum support person can improve birth satisfaction.