A Half Century of Mate Preferences: The Cultural Evolution of Values

The qualities people believe are important in selecting a marriage partner afford one domain for assessing human values. We examined the cultural evolution of these values over more than half a century. Building on existing data on mate preferences collected in 1939 (N= 628 ), 1956 (N= 120 ), 1967 (N= 566 ), and 1977 (N= 316 ), we collected data using the same instrument in 1984/1985 (N= 1,496 ) and in 1996 (N= 607 ) at geographically diverse locations. Several changes in values were documented across the 57‐year span. Both sexes increased the importance they attach to physical attractiveness in a mate. Both sexes, but especially men, increased the importance they attach to mates with good financial prospects. Domestic skills in a partner plummeted in importance for men. Mutual attraction and love climbed in importance for both sexes. The sexes converged in the ordering of the importance of different mate qualities, showing maximum similarity in 1996. Discussion speculates about causes of the cultural evolution of values.     

Time,Money and the Gender Order: Work Orientations and Working‐Time Preferences in Britain

In the context of economic restructuring and the reorganization of working time, the question of working‐time preferences is emerging as an important component of both academic and policy debates. Much of the debate about preferences is based upon conjuncture or inadequate indicators, often drawing oppositional models of gender differences in preferences which neglect the similarities between the sexes. This article starts by developing a framework for interpreting preference formation and change, with particular emphasis on the societal institutional system and existing national working‐time regime in which individuals' behaviour and preferences are located. This framework is then applied to highlight the particular features of the national working‐time regime and associated ‘gender order’ in Britain, followed by an analysis of gender similarities and differences in work orientations and working‐time preferences in this country. The results show that work orientations and working‐time preferences are related to labour market circumstances for both sexes. Similarity between women and men in the influences of workplace variables coexists with a gender‐differentiated effect of household circumstances on the types of work schedules preferred; childcare and domestic responsibilities figure more largely in women's accounts of their preferences than in men's. For both, however, the most popular reform would be increased time sovereignty in the organization of their work schedules.     

The Collective Model of Household Consumption: A Nonparametric Characterization

We provide a nonparametric characterization of a general collective model for household consumption, which includes externalities and public consumption. Next, we establish testable necessary and sufficient conditions for data consistency with collective rationality that only include observed price and quantity information. These conditions have a similar structure as the generalized axiom of revealed preference for the unitary model, which is convenient from a testing point of view. In addition, we derive the minimum number of goods and observations that enable the rejection of collectively rational household behavior.     

On multiattributive risk aversion: some clarifying results

This article sheds some light on three concepts of risk aversion in a multiattributive decision framework introduced into the literature by Kihlstrom and Mirman (J Econ Theor 8:361–388, 1974), de Finetti (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia 11:685–709, 1952), Richard (Manage Sci 22:12–21, 1975), and Meyer (Preferences over time, New York, pp. 473–514, 1976). We review the three multiattributive risk aversion definitions as well as the notion of partial risk aversion, give a translation of these concepts into properties of the multiattributive utility function and reveal that Meyer’s, de Finetti/Richard’s concepts are very closely related. Moreover, it is shown that any additive utility function is risk neutral in the sense of de Finetti/Richard and Meyer independently of the risk attitude that it expresses in terms of Kihlstrom/Mirman. Additionally we introduce a multiattributive utility function derived from a one-dimensional function that leads to a coincidence of the differently defined risk attitudes.

Uncertainty and Risk in Financial Markets

This paper considers a general equilibrium model in which the distinction between uncertainty and risk is formalized by assuming agents have incomplete preferences over state‐contingent consumption bundles, as in Bewley (1986). Without completeness, individual decision making depends on a set of probability distributions over the state space. A bundle is preferred to another if and only if it has larger expected utility for all probabilities in this set. When preferences are complete this set is a singleton, and the model reduces to standard expected utility. In this setting, we characterize Pareto optima and equilibria, and show that the presence of uncertainty generates robust indeterminacies in equilibrium prices and allocations for any specification of initial endowments. We derive comparative statics results linking the degree of uncertainty with changes in equilibria. Despite the presence of robust indeterminacies, we show that equilibrium prices and allocations vary continuously with underlying fundamentals. Equilibria in a standard risk economy are thus robust to adding small degrees of uncertainty. Finally, we give conditions under which some assets are not traded due to uncertainty aversion.     

Risk Preferences,Probability Weighting,and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management

Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey‐based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery‐choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation‐related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes “good” (low cost/low damage) and “bad” (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting.     

Adaptive utility and trial aversion

Decision making with adaptive utility provides a generalisation to classical Bayesian decision theory, allowing the creation of a normative theory for decision selection when preferences are initially uncertain. In this paper we address some of the foundational issues of adaptive utility as seen from the perspective of a Bayesian statistician. The implications that such a generalisation has upon the traditional utility concepts of value of information and risk aversion are also explored, with a new concept of trial aversion introduced that is similar to risk aversion, but which concerns a decision maker's aversion to selecting decisions with high uncertainty over resulting utility.     

Development of preferences for differently aged faces of different races

Children's experiences with differently aged faces changes in the course of development. During infancy, most faces encountered are adult, however as children mature, exposure to child faces becomes more extensive. Does this change in experience influence preference for differently aged faces? The preferences of children for adult vs. child, and adult vs. infant faces were investigated. Caucasian 3‐ to 6‐year‐olds and adults were presented with adult/child and adult/infant face pairs which were either Caucasian or Asian (race consistent within pairs). Younger children (3–4 years) preferred adults over children whereas older children (5–6 years) preferred children over adults. This preference was only detected for Caucasian faces. These data support a ‘here and now’ model of the development of face age processing from infancy to childhood. In particular, the findings suggest that growing experience with peers influences age preferences and that race impacts on these preferences. In contrast, adults preferred infants and children over adults when the faces were Caucasian or Asian, suggesting an increasing influence of a baby schema, and a decreasing influence of race. The different preferences of younger children, older children, and adults also suggest discontinuity and the possibility of different mechanisms at work during different developmental periods.     

Determinants of Probability Neglect and Risk Attitudes for Disaster Risk: An Online Experimental Study of Flood Insurance Demand among Homeowners

Little is known about why individuals place either a high or a very low value on mitigating risks of disaster‐type events, like floods. This study uses panel data methods to explore the psychological factors affecting probability neglect of flood risk relevant to the zero end‐point of the probability weighting function in Prospect Theory, and willingness‐to‐pay for flood insurance. In particular, we focus on explanatory variables of anticipatory and anticipated emotions, as well as the threshold of concern. Moreover, results obtained under real and hypothetical incentives are compared in an experiment with high experimental outcomes. Based on our findings, we suggest several policy recommendations to overcome individual decision processes, which may hinder flood protection efforts.     

基于在线评论的区域需求偏好识别方法

用户需求存在着区域差异，识别区域需求偏好是企业区域化经营策略的决策基础。为此，本文提出了一种基于在线评论的区域需求偏好识别框架。首先，从在线评论中提取产品特征，并判定产品特征的情感极性；然后，基于特征情感计算客户的产品满意度；最后，利用假设检验的方法识别特征情感极性和产品满意度的区域差异。为了验证框架的有效性，本文利用汽车之家网站上的汽车产品评论数据进行分析。实验结果表明，油耗、空间、外观和内饰等特征的情感极性以及产品满意度受区域因素的影响十分显著。研究结果建立起产品特征情感极性和产品满意度与区域特征的关联联系，为企业的区域化产品设计与营销策略提供理论支撑。