居民养老保险:参保主体、筹资与待遇水平

本文从参保结构、筹资水平和待遇水平等3个方面对城乡居民养老保险制度进行了分析。研究发现,在参保结构方面,伴随着城镇化率的提高,居民养老保险参保人数的相对比例在下降;在筹资水平方面,个人缴费水平过低,其主要原因是财政补贴资金激励性不足,从而需要在进一步提高财政补贴的同时,优化补贴结构,提高对个人缴费的激励作用;在待遇方面,居民养老金总体水平较低、但增长幅度较大,与职工待遇相比,替代率的差距要远远小于绝对额的差距。     

论《弗朗西斯·麦康伯短暂的幸福生活》的叙述与描写

在海明威的短篇小说中,《弗朗西斯·麦康伯短暂的幸福生活》的叙述艺术别具一格,具有极大的艺术魅力。就其叙述方式说,横断面写法、围绕主题选择时间切点、张弛有致的节奏、悬念丛生的结局,显示了海明威构思的精巧。就其描写方式说,神态描写、语言描写,特别是肖像描写、心理描写,显示了海明威描写的传神。这些精巧的构思与传神的描写构成了小说的结构艺术特色。     

Will the ASA's Efforts to Improve Statistical Practice be Successful? Some Evidence to the Contrary

ABSTRACT

Recent efforts by the American Statistical Association to improve statistical practice, especially in countering the misuse and abuse of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and p-values, are to be welcomed. But will they be successful? The present study offers compelling evidence that this will be an extraordinarily difficult task. Dramatic citation-count data on 25 articles and books severely critical of NHST's negative impact on good science, underlining that this issue was/is well known, did nothing to stem its usage over the period 1960–2007. On the contrary, employment of NHST increased during this time. To be successful in this endeavor, as well as restoring the relevance of the statistics profession to the scientific community in the 21st century, the ASA must be prepared to dispense detailed advice. This includes specifying those situations, if they can be identified, in which the p-value plays a clearly valuable role in data analysis and interpretation. The ASA might also consider a statement that recommends abandoning the use of p-values.     

On comparing,classifying and clustering several dependent regression models

Classifying several regression models fitted on a dataset is one of the most problems in data analysis. In other words, scientists are interested in comparing several regression models that can be used for a dataset. In this paper, an approach will be used to compare and classify several dependent regression models. Then the performance of the proposed method is investigated using simulation study and real example.     

Stress-strength reliability of exponentiated Fréchet distributions based on Type-II censored data

In this paper, we consider inference of the stress-strength parameter, R, based on two independent Type-II censored samples from exponentiated Fréchet populations with different index parameters. The maximum likelihood and uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators, exact and asymptotic confidence intervals and hypotheses testing for R are obtained. We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the performance of these estimators and confidence intervals. Finally, two real data sets are analysed for illustrative purposes.     

社会学民族志的力量:重返早期社会研究的田野工作

自20世纪70年代以来,社会学民族志在田野工作和叙事复兴中与传统人文学汇聚,显著扩展了自己的学科边界。但是,这种扩展并没有解决社会学民族志在深度的经验发生和强烈的理论诉求之间遭遇的紧张。对于这种紧张,本文主张再访早期社会研究的田野,即19世纪末期到一战之前的若干典型研究,从中反思早期社会学田野工作是如何在“直接经验”的倾向中完成类型化,以及如何在这个经验感获得的同时改变对社会世界的道德想象。早期社会学的田野工作的力量之一不在于以规范的诉求压制经验感,而是以独特的情感结构连接经验的观察和道德理想的重生。由此,我们不仅需要反思诸如社会调查到社区研究这样的简单思路,更要重新理解理论史上所谓的“进步主义式”的道德本身。这一工作对重新认识早期社会研究和今天的社会学民族志都具有意义上的准备。     

Why spouses depress each other: A cross‐national study to test the shared resource hypothesis in depressive symptom concordance within older adult couples

The shared resource hypothesis suggests that married couples share the same environmental resources, which shape their health concordance. This study tests its cross‐national applicability. Cross‐sectional 2012–2013 Health and Retirement Study data from China, England, Mexico, and the United States were analyzed. Heterosexual couples (age ≥60) who were married or partnered were studied (N = 20,565 pairs). Dyadic data were analyzed by multilevel models to examine the effect of self and spousal social and physical health statuses on depressive symptoms. Regression models were used to test the relationship between couples' shared resources and depressive symptom concordance. Results indicated both husbands and wives' depressive symptoms were associated with their own and spouses' social and health statuses. Most couple‐level resources were insignificant predictors for Chinese and Mexican couples' concordance, but having more social and financial resources was associated with higher concordance among British and American couples. Self‐reported health was the most consistent predictor in all countries. The shared resource hypothesis was more applicable to depressive symptom concordance within couples in the United States and England, but not in China and Mexico. Couple‐centered intervention is suggested for clinical practice, and the spousal effect should be considered in policymaking.