Accuracy,confidence and consensus in bayesian hypothesis inference

Interest centres on a group of statisticians , each supplied with the same n sample datapoint sandmaking formal Bayesian inference with a common likelihood function but differing prior knowledge and utility functions.

Definitions are proposed which quantify, in a commensurable way, the inference processes of “accuracy”, “confidence” and “consensus” for the case of hypothesis inference with a fixed sample size n.

The general significance of comparing the three quantifiers is considered. As n increases the asymptotic behaviour of the quantifiers is evaluated and it is found that the three rates of convergence are of the same order as a function of n. The results are interpreted and some of their implications are discussed.     

Testing the gender similarities hypothesis: differences in subjective task value and motivation to transfer training

ABSTRACT

Are female and male trainees similar or different in their reaction to training programmes, specifically regarding their subjective task value and motivation to transfer? According to the gender similarities hypothesis, women and men are alike on most psychological variables. However, according to research in organizational behaviour, female and male employees differ on certain aspects, such as their job satisfaction and work identity. To test these two views on gender similarities and differences in the context of human resource development and training evaluation, the present study examined the extent to which gender moderated reactions to training. Based on the expectancy-value theory of motivation and self-determination theory, a web-based questionnaire was used to measure six training reactions: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, perceived relative cost, autonomous motivation to transfer, and controlled motivation to transfer. The results indicated that women and men differed in their ratings of attainment value but were similar for the remaining five reaction measures. These outcomes support the gender similarities hypothesis. The findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical implications for modelling gender effects in HRD research and their practical significance for promoting training effectiveness and transfer of training.     

卢梭主体性教育思想及启示

卢梭的主体性教育思想强调人的主体性，凸显了教育过程中受教育者的主体地位。反映在儿童教学中，就是教育应体现儿童的天性，要以儿童作为主体，根据儿童的特点，充分发挥主动性和创造性，引导进行自主、能动的学习。为了更好地了解卢梭的主体性教育思想，本文对其作了详细的整理和系统的阐释，在介绍理论与特征的基础上，重点论述该思想的内涵及目的，思考其对现代儿童教育的启示，以期望能丰富现有的教学理论，为儿童教育的发展提供理论和现实依据。     

犯罪构成体系之共性研究

犯罪构成体系在结构表现上“仪态万千”,在达致犯罪认定的结果上“殊途同归”,其体系内涵均强调犯罪认定主观方面的总领地位,凸显客观方面对主观方面的印证作用,侧重犯罪人格的预防功能,体现思维的渐进性,囊括举证责任的合理分配。世界三大犯罪构成体系的中核将主观认定贯穿始终,并恪守客观方面印证主观方面之原则,正确厘清刑事诉讼法和刑事实体法在犯罪认定中的各自作用,具有贴近民意,契合实情之功效,予以合理把握均能在犯罪认定中发挥积极作用。犯罪构成体系仅是犯罪认定的方法和工具,无优劣之分,有适正把握之别。     

Consumer Capital Market Constraints and Guaranteed Renewable Insurance

This paper analyzes a market in which individuals can purchase guaranteed renewable insurance policies to insure against the risk of loss in the current period and the risk of an increased probability of loss. Individuals who cannot borrow will purchase partially guaranteed renewable insurance at most. Relatively impatient individuals may purchase policies with no guaranteed renewability features. Without borrowing, the results are similar regardless of whether consumers can save.     

论脱贫致富主体意识的开化

从湘赣老区贫困县的实际情况来看 ,精神贫困是经济贫困的重要原因 :①思想僵化 ,缺乏创业精神 ;②智力浅薄 ,不具备发展能力 ;③生产盲目 ,经济效益不佳。因此 ,老区人民要脱贫致富 ,就要开化其主体意识 ,扶贫始于扶志、扶贫贵于扶心、扶贫重于扶智。优化文化环境、抓好“两基”和职业技术培训、整顿和培训领导班子、建立各种农民专业协会和稳定联产承包责任制对消除贫困来源是必不可少的。     

Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events

This paper suggests a behavioral definition of (subjective) ambiguity in an abstract setting where objects of choice are Savage‐style acts. Then axioms are described that deliver probabilistic sophistication of preference on the set of unambiguous acts. In particular, both the domain and the values of the decision‐maker's probability measure are derived from preference. It is argued that the noted result also provides a decision‐theoretic foundation for the Knightian distinction between risk and ambiguity.     

甲骨卜辞语法研究应谨慎——读《谈谈殷墟甲骨卜辞中的“于”》有感

卜辞语法研究中存在的问题,可以从客观、主观两方面分析其原因。客观方面包括卜辞残缺、所借助的研究材料为二手材料等。主观方面多是由于研究者在研究的过程中对文字理解有误,如认错字、解错词、断错句等;也在于研究者占有材料不够,对卜辞缺乏系统、全面的梳理。     

金融诈骗罪主观要件探析

金融诈骗罪破坏国家金融管理秩序,侵犯财产所有权。其犯罪构成与刑法规定的其他犯罪一样,必须同时具备犯罪客体、客观、主体、主观四个要件。金融诈骗罪的行为人主观上是否必须具备“非法占有目的”以及金融诈骗罪的主观罪过形式是认定此类犯罪必须正确把握的问题。“非法占有目的”是所有金融诈骗罪必备的主观要件,而不是选择要件。金融诈骗罪行为人的主观罪过形式只能是直接故意,不能是过失,也不能是间接故意。     

制宪权视角下的宪法正当性之评判——评施米特的制宪权学说

制宪权是评判宪法正当性的重要依据。古典自然法学诉诸于人民制宪权而取得宪法正当性的评判。施米特的制宪权学说是运用社会实证主义方法,在批判人民制宪权学说的基础上建立起一种价值无涉的政治实体制宪权学说,在制宪权学说史上具有重要地位和影响。施米特认为制宪权是现存政治实体对自身存在形式作出总决断的意志,宪法正当性在于其现实性。其学说关注宪法的现实正当性,拓展了我们对宪法正当性评判的视野和对制宪权认识的深度,但由于忽略价值正当性曾被法西斯利用,值得我们吸取教训。我们认为,制宪权是人民制宪权与政治实体制宪权的辩证统一,宪法的正当性与现实性不能相互割裂。