全文获取类型
收费全文 | 80478篇 |
免费 | 2538篇 |
国内免费 | 636篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 1897篇 |
劳动科学 | 10篇 |
民族学 | 1686篇 |
人才学 | 12篇 |
人口学 | 1113篇 |
丛书文集 | 11506篇 |
理论方法论 | 3132篇 |
综合类 | 58993篇 |
社会学 | 2102篇 |
统计学 | 3201篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 100篇 |
2023年 | 373篇 |
2022年 | 574篇 |
2021年 | 635篇 |
2020年 | 764篇 |
2019年 | 727篇 |
2018年 | 778篇 |
2017年 | 972篇 |
2016年 | 1140篇 |
2015年 | 1659篇 |
2014年 | 4051篇 |
2013年 | 3975篇 |
2012年 | 4939篇 |
2011年 | 5759篇 |
2010年 | 4667篇 |
2009年 | 4797篇 |
2008年 | 5165篇 |
2007年 | 6517篇 |
2006年 | 6649篇 |
2005年 | 6089篇 |
2004年 | 5681篇 |
2003年 | 5571篇 |
2002年 | 4390篇 |
2001年 | 3764篇 |
2000年 | 1969篇 |
1999年 | 559篇 |
1998年 | 263篇 |
1997年 | 209篇 |
1996年 | 174篇 |
1995年 | 144篇 |
1994年 | 115篇 |
1993年 | 99篇 |
1992年 | 86篇 |
1991年 | 40篇 |
1990年 | 36篇 |
1989年 | 42篇 |
1988年 | 36篇 |
1987年 | 25篇 |
1986年 | 21篇 |
1985年 | 20篇 |
1984年 | 25篇 |
1983年 | 10篇 |
1982年 | 11篇 |
1981年 | 13篇 |
1980年 | 4篇 |
1979年 | 2篇 |
1978年 | 7篇 |
1977年 | 2篇 |
1976年 | 2篇 |
1975年 | 2篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 265 毫秒
11.
Michael Greenberg Anthony Cox Vicki Bier Jim Lambert Karen Lowrie Warner North Michael Siegrist Felicia Wu 《Risk analysis》2020,40(Z1):2113-2127
As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis. 相似文献
12.
蔡之兵 《吉首大学学报(社会科学版)》2020,41(3):67-76
每当先进的发展制度开始取代落后的发展制度时,整个世界格局就会进入重大的转换阶段。在中国五千年的发展历史中,有两次重大的历史变局完全改变了中国历史发展轨迹并深远地影响了当前中国的发展模式。新时代下的中国作为前两次历史变局影响的客体,曾经既是先进发展制度取代落后发展制度的受益者,也经历过作为落后发展制度主体而被先进发展制度冲击的过程。目前世界正处于第三次先进发展制度与落后发展制度交替的历史变局阶段,作为第三次重大历史变局的主体,在三次千年历史变局叠加的背景下,能否有效地认识、适应并改造利用前两次历史变局的经验与教训,构建系统性、科学性、可行性、领先性的中国特色社会主义制度,将决定中国在本次历史变局中能否顺利成为先进发展制度的主体从而实现民族复兴。 相似文献
13.
阮咏梅 《宁波大学学报(人文科学版)》2020,33(1):1-6
卫所制度是明清时期重要的军政制度。以浙江沿海明清卫所驻地方言为考察对象,从北到南选取了最有代表性的16个方言点,通过共时和历时的比较,分析和总结浙江沿海明清卫所驻地方言声母在数量和古今分合上的特点。 相似文献
14.
Klaus Schneeberger Matthias Huttenlau Benjamin Winter Thomas Steinberger Stefan Achleitner Johann Sttter 《Risk analysis》2019,39(1):125-139
This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately. 相似文献
15.
以风险理论审视非物质文化遗产的现行法律制度,根据风险产生根源不同,非物质文化遗产保护的制度风险会表现为制度运转失灵风险、制度功能偏差风险和公平性缺失风险。化解制度风险,形成制度风险的维度,不可基于同一个标准,而是需要在大的框架之下论及制度风险的法律管控,需要有针对性地创构"建立私权,善用公权"的多元法律控制体系,并在体系内引入技术规制,创设"非物质文化遗产权",推动民间习惯法与法律制度、公法与私法的互动式发展。 相似文献
16.
Ye Weiping 《Social Sciences in China》2018,39(1):34-49
Modern analytical models for anti-monopoly laws are a core element of the application of those laws. Since the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China was promulgated in 2008, law enforcement and judicial authorities have applied different analytical models, leading to divergent legal and regulatory outcomes as similar cases receive different verdicts. To select a suitable analytical model for China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, we need to consider the possible contribution of both economic analysis and legal formalism and to learn from the mature systems and experience of foreign countries. It is also necessary to take into account such binding constraints as the current composition of China’s anti-monopoly legal system, the ability of implementing agencies and the supply of economic analysis, in order to ensure complementarity between the analytical model chosen and the complexity of economic analysis and between the professionalism of implementing agencies and the cost of compliance for participants in economic activities. In terms of institutional design, the models should provide a considered explanation of the legislative aims of the law’s provisions. It is necessary, therefore, to establish a processing model of behavioral classification that is based on China’s national conditions, applies analytical models using normative comprehensive analysis, makes use of the distribution rule of burden of proof, improves supporting systems related to analytical models and enhances the ability of public authorities to implement the law. 相似文献
17.
AbstractThis paper focuses on the inference of suitable generally non linear functions in stochastic volatility models. In this context, in order to estimate the variance of the proposed estimators, a moving block bootstrap (MBB) approach is suggested and discussed. Under mild assumptions, we show that the MBB procedure is weakly consistent. Moreover, a methodology to choose the optimal length block in the MBB is proposed. Some examples and simulations on the model are also made to show the performance of the proposed procedure. 相似文献
18.
19.
20.
ABSTRACTBy using the probabilistic framework of production efficiency, the paper develops time-dependent conditional efficiency estimators performing a non-parametric frontier analysis. Specifically, by applying both full and quantile (robust) time-dependent conditional estimators, it models the dynamic effect of health expenditure on countries’ technological change and technological catch-up levels. The results from the application reveal that the effect of per capita health expenditure on countries’ technological change and technological catch-up is nonlinear and is subject to countries’ specific income levels. 相似文献