驳中国威胁新论

俄罗斯学者阿·沙拉温(А.Шаравин)院士认为,中国会成为俄罗斯的"第三种威胁",其论据是:中国军事力量随着整体国力的增强而快速增长,中国人口大规模"北迁"会威胁到俄罗斯远东及西伯利亚地区的领土与主权安全,中国经济的持续发展需要掠夺俄罗斯丰富的自然资源,俄罗斯放松对中国的警惕会助长中国的野心。这些论据都是主观臆想的结果,是站不住脚的,而且,这种论断任其泛滥,势必影响中俄关系的发展大局。     

Threat, Group Identification, and Children's Ethnic Prejudice

This experiment tested predictions from social identity development theory (SIDT, Nesdale, 1999 ), that children's tendency to show out‐group prejudice depends on the strength of their in‐group identification and/or their perception of threat from the out‐group. Anglo‐Australian children (N= 480) aged 6, 7, or 9 years were assigned to a high‐status team and their identification with the in‐group (high vs. low) was manipulated together with threat from the out‐group (present vs. absent). The members of the out‐group were revealed to be of the same (Anglo‐Australian) or different (Pacific Islander) ethnicity to the in‐group. Results supported the SIDT predictions. In addition, consistent with socio‐cognitive theory (ST, Aboud, 1988 ), dislike for the out‐group at 6 years gave way to increasingly neutral reactions by 9 years of age. Ethnic composition of the out‐group did not impact differentially on liking but it did affect the children's desire to change groups. Strongly identified children were reluctant to leave their group regardless of the ethnicity of the out‐group, whereas children with low in‐group identification were more willing to change into a same‐ than into a different‐ethnicity out‐group. It is concluded that both social identity and social cognitive processes are implicated in the development of prejudice in middle childhood.     

泰国影视业发展的SWOT分析

利用SWOT分析法分析泰国影视业状况,认为泰国影视业的发展具有旅游、文化、政府支持,设施完备等优势,也有环境污染、相互压价、法律法规不健全等劣势.泰国影视业的发展应以“市场转换市场”的形式改变规划策略,将影视营销与旅游行业相结合,注重传统文化,提高制作水平,改变创作思路.     

Did the escalation of the financial crisis of 2008 affect the perception of immigration-related threats? A natural experiment

In this paper, we apply a natural experiment approach, comparing specific data from the European Values Study prior to and after the escalation of the financial crisis in 2008. The aim is to disentangle the short-term effect of the crisis on the relationship between social vulnerability and immigrant-related threat perceptions for the residents of Luxembourg (natives and foreign nationals). Propensity score matching is used to ensure the balanced composition of the control group and treated group with regard to the observed covariates. The results reveal that vulnerable foreign nationals demonstrated lower perceptions of immigration-related threats after the escalation of the crisis than their pre-crisis counterparts. No significant effect of the escalation of the crisis was found among Luxembourg nationals.     

“中国生态环境威胁论”的缘起、特征与对策研究

生态环境是与经济、政治、文化、科技、外交、主权、安全、人权等紧密联系的命题.西方一些国家中的别有居心者利用其工具价值,以生态环境及其问题对处于低端发展中国家施压和遏制,甚至干涉其内政.一度时期,"中国生态环境威胁论"的噪声在西方一些国家此起彼落,具有历史性、针对性和复杂性.了解这些言论的特征,把握其向度,探讨其策略,事关中国生态文明建设与和平崛起的当前和长远.     

气候安全威胁美国的国计民生

本文通过在美国访问期间所作的《美国气候变化和国际安全的调查问卷》数据报告,进行系统的整理分析,来分析气候变化所带来的直接安全和间接安全问题。气候变化的影响远不限于它本身带来的生态威胁,由其所产生的国际冲突、资源争夺和国际干预也对美国外交提出了新的挑战。问卷结果显示,气候变化在中长期（至2025年前后）将会逐渐成为影响美国国家安全比较重要的因素,美国国内对于气候安全的共识将会逐渐加深。美国对气候安全政治化和国际化的重视程度日益深入,这会给未来美国参与全球气候谈判注入新的动力。世界各国应对美国的气候外交有所关切,并在合作中进行积极应对。     

阴谋论、威胁论与美国国家安全观

美国与世界其他国家的安全观明显不同,它总是感觉到不安全,美国总是偏执地认为外部存在着对美国的阴谋和威胁。这种国家安全观与美国的民族特性有关,因为美国的民族认同是建立在对制度和信仰认同基础之上,因此它需要通过灌输阴谋论和威胁论来树立一个敌人的形象,以此来加强美利坚民族的凝聚力。这种国家安全观促使美国把自己树立为道德形象,缺乏换位思考,从而漠视其他国家正常的安全需求和民族情感,最终引起了其他国家对美国霸权行为的反感与抗拒,进一步加剧了美国的不安全感。     

Perception of Identity Threat as the Main Disturbance of Iranian Divorced Women: A Qualitative Study

Postdivorce identity challenges can be experienced differently in societies that underline the lack of normalcy of divorce. Therefore, this study was conducted to explore Iranian divorced women’s perceptions of their identities. A qualitative content analysis method was applied. Participants included 18 divorced women recruited based on purposive sampling. Data were gathered using unstructured interviews, and analyzed via content analysis method. Three categories—stigmatization, separation shock, and remarriage paradox—were extracted, and the main theme was identity threat. Findings illustrate that Iranian divorced women can be considered at risk, and hence, understanding their views is vital for developing context-specific preventive and intervention programs.     

Ontological Insecurity,Racial Tension,and Confidence in the Police in the Shadow of Urban Unrest

According to the theory of “ontological insecurity,” people who worry that society is in a state of decline or upheaval will also support punitive social control of deviants. I test the relationship between several measures of people's anxiety about the state of society, their perception of racial tension, and their confidence in the police (as enforcers of social control) during the period of social unrest following the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. I use ordinary least squares regression to analyze data from a nationally representative public opinion poll gathered for the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press during August, 2014. I find that pessimism about the state of the economy, pessimism about race relations, and the experience of personal hardship are related to decreased confidence in the police, while pessimism about the state of morals in society is related to increased confidence. I conclude that public confidence in the police is intertwined with public confidence in the stability of the country, more generally. This study supports a “neo‐Durkheimian” model of policing. The opposite findings of economic versus moral insecurity also call for refinement of the ontological insecurity theory.     

Not Threat,But Threatening: Potential Causes and Consequences of Gay Innumeracy

Existing literature on numeracy suggests that people are likely to perceive outgroups as larger if the group is perceived as threatening. However, some studies also suggest that numeracy is a function of wishful thinking or even a lack of political knowledge. We engage the literature on numeracy of the gay and lesbian population by employing data from 1977 and 2013 surveys of American adults. We examine the factors that are associated with estimating the gay population. Next we explore how innumeracy may shape attitudes about homosexuality and gay rights. Our findings suggest that estimates of the gay population are partly a function of knowledge, and perhaps wishful thinking, but not threat. However, our analysis also reveals that higher estimates of the gay population are associated with less support for gay civil rights in the current era and were not a factor in the past.