印度与美国的当代“中国威胁”论比较——国际金融危机中的冷战思维因素研究系列文章之一

当代印度与美国不时泛起＂中国威胁＂论,都有各自的渊源。两者的共同点：立论基础都是虚无或虚假的,都是为了妖魔化中国,都是为了遏制中国而达到本国利益的最大化,都有转移本国矛盾焦点而获取政治资本的功能,都有意识形态上的冷战思维并有合流趋势;两者的差异：在理想主义与现实主义上的倾向不同,采用的手段与国际地位不同,对中国的影响路径不同,理论的完整性与水平不同。在分析其异同点的基础上,本文提出了应对的战略与策略建议。     

Still connecting the dots: An investigation into infants' attentional bias to threat using an eye-tracking task

An attentional bias toward threat has been theorized to be a normative aspect of infants' threat and safety learning, and an indicator of risk for internalizing psychopathology in older populations. To date, only four studies have examined this bias using the dot-probe task in infancy and the findings are mixed. We extended the literature by examining patterns of attention to threat in a culturally and linguistically diverse sample of infants aged 5–11 months old (N = 151) using all measures previously employed in the infant dot-probe literature. Given that an attentional bias toward threat is associated with higher risk of developing anxiety disorders later in life, we also examined how negative affect—an early correlate of later anxiety disorders—is related to attentional bias toward threat in infancy. This study was the first to use a consistent measure of negative affect across the whole sample. An eye-tracking dot-probe task was used to examine attentional bias toward threat (i.e., angry faces) relative to positive (i.e., happy faces) stimuli. Results showed that an attention bias to threat was not characteristic of infants at this age, and negative affect did not moderate the putative relationship between attention and emotional faces (angry, happy). These findings therefore suggest that attention biases to socio-emotional threat may not have emerged by 11 months old.     

基于战略顾客行为的进入威慑策略研究

通过对先进入者的原始产品进行模仿创新,后进入者推出了模仿创新产品,这吸引了跨期选择购买时机以及产品类型的战略顾客,从而威胁了先进入者的领导地位。面对这种威胁,文中研究了先进入者采用产品升级策略的有效性,其中,对于整体化升级策略,先进入者能以等性价比、递增性价比、递减性价比等三种路径推出升级产品;而对于模块化升级策略,先进入者只能以递增性价比路径推出显性升级产品。结论表明:对于整体化升级策略,递减性价比升级路径更有助于先进入者在市场份额与利润方面保持持续领导地位;对于模块化升级策略,较高的模块化程度更能维护先进入者在市场份额方面的竞争优势,但对维护利润方面的竞争优势的潜在价值较低。     

The dynamics of radical right-wing populist party preferences and perceived group threat: A comparative panel analysis of three competing hypotheses in the Netherlands and Germany

Existing cross-sectional research considers citizens' preferences for radical right-wing populist (RRP) parties to be centrally driven by their perception that immigrants threaten the well-being of the national ingroup. However, longitudinal evidence for this relationship is largely missing. To remedy this gap in the literature, we developed three competing hypotheses to investigate: (a) whether perceived group threat is temporally prior to RRP party preferences, (b) whether RRP party preferences are temporally prior to perceived group threat, or (c) whether the relation between perceived group threat and RRP party preferences is bidirectional. Based on multiwave panel data from the Netherlands for the years 2008–2013 and from Germany spanning the period 1994–2002, we examined the merits of these hypotheses using autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation models. The results show that perceptions of threatened group interests precipitate rather than follow citizens' preferences for RRP parties. These findings help to clarify our knowledge of the dynamic structure underlying RRP party preferences.     

Fear of small numbers? Immigrant population size and electoral support for the populist radical right in Switzerland

In this paper, we examine the association between contact with migrant populations and support for the populist radical right (PRR) in Switzerland. Building on group threat and intergroup contact theories, which offer opposing predictions, and drawing on Appadurai’s thesis of the ‘fear of small numbers’, we propose a new theoretical framework to explain this association. We predict that the relationship between the size of the migrant populations and PRR voting is nonlinear: a small but noticeable minority triggers the formation of anti-immigrant attitudes, which soften as the minority grows and people start having meaningful interactions with foreigners. To test these theories, we combine individual-level data with municipality-level information. Mixed-effects multilevel models confirm that individuals in municipalities with a moderate proportion of foreigners are more likely than those with fewer or a greater number of migrants to cast their vote in support of PRR parties; this is particularly so for certain stigmatised minorities. We further explore the effect of perceived immigrant threat in moderating these relationships.     

现代企业兼并及兼并理论述评

随着经济全球化的来临,企业兼并的浪潮西风东渐,国内企业兼并的数量、规模都有显著增长的趋势。目前也有许多研究兼并的文章,多数从资本运作的角度出发。本文从产业组织学的角度,把兼并划分为纵向兼并、横向兼并、混合兼并三大类,通过评述现代几种主要的兼并理论,来阐明三类兼并的动机、功能和作用。     

安徽汽车零部件产业发展的SWOT分析

安徽汽车产业发展迅速,被业界誉为中国汽车业的“安徽现象”。针对安徽汽车零部件产业发展的SWOT分析,一方面对“安徽现象”作出一定解释,另一方面通过对安徽汽车零部件产业发展的盘点,对如何进一步促进其发展提出针对性对策。     

考虑竞争者进入威胁的易逝品动态定价机制

本文研究了同时考虑竞争者进入威胁和消费者行为的易逝品的动态定价机制.依据策略性和忠诚性两个维度,将市场中的消费者分为策略型忠诚者、策略型转换者、短视型忠诚者和短视型转换者四种类型.建立了在位企业、竞争企业与策略消费者间的两阶段动态博弈模型,通过均衡求解与分析,探讨了在位企业和竞争企业的最优价格机制以及消费者行为对企业定价行为和均衡收益的影响,深入分析了竞争者的进入行为对在位企业定价和收益的影响,以及消费者策略行为和转换行为与竞争者进入行为间的交互作用机制.研究表明:在位企业可以依据策略消费者的比例,采取智能的动态定价机制,实行或放弃对策略消费者的跨期价格歧视,最大化自身收益;消费者策略行为会降低在位企业的绩效却能够提高竞争者的绩效;竞争者的进入并非总是对在位企业不利,在一定条件下,竞争者的进入有利于提高在位企业的绩效;在位企业通过多种方式培养自己的忠实顾客,不仅能够应对竞争者的进入威胁而且能够缓解消费者策略行为的负面影响.     

黑龙江粮食主产区生态环境恶化的研究

黑龙江省是粮食主产区,是国家重要的商品粮生产基地,粮食生产占有特殊重要地位。黑土地水土流失严重及因此而引起的土壤“营养不良”;水资源紧缺,水质恶化,自然灾害频繁,灾情加重;农业环境污染,有害物质残留食物中。农业环境恶化严重地威胁农业生产。