Generalizability of Gottman and Colleagues' Affective Process Models of Couples' Relationship Outcomes

The generalizability of Gottman et al's. (1998) affective process models was examined using a community-based sample of 85 married or cohabiting couples with at-risk backgrounds. Predictive associations between affective processes assessed at about age 21 years and relationship status and satisfaction approximately 2.5 years later were examined. The major findings of Gottman et al. failed to replicate. In particular, men's rejection of their partners' influence, the lack of men's deescalation of partners' negative affect, and women's negative start up were not predictive of relationship status. Further, differences in affective processes were found when comparing discussion sessions of the men's versus the women's chosen topics. The findings suggested that the validity and utility of the affective process models need further investigation.     

人民币升值与人民币国际化的互动分析

当前,处于经济起飞阶段的中国,人民币面临着升值和国际化的两大趋势.稳定而坚挺的人民币币值会加快人民币国际化,而人民币国际化要求人民币币值稳定而坚挺.国际经验表明,货币升值和货币国际化是两把双刃剑,必须谨慎利用二者之间的互动,并采取有效措施,防范可能的风险.     

“He's Doing Fine”: Hope Work and Emotional Threat Management Among Families of Seriously Ill Children

In this study, I examine how people in emotionally fraught circumstances strategically structure social interactions in order to protect fragile emotional states. Data come from interviews and observations with 18 families of children being treated for life‐threatening conditions at an elite university research hospital. I show how families worked to ward off emotional threats to their ability to maintain hope that their children would recover by preempting and restructuring social interactions with friends and family members and pruning social networks. These efforts allowed families to minimize reciprocal obligations and avoid encountering pessimistic reflected appraisals that might trigger “emotional shortcuts” leading to states of fear and anxiety. Similar efforts to reconstruct social interactions and social networks may be common among those working to maintain fragile emotional states in a variety of challenging circumstances.     

社会管理的文化属性及共识:基于公民交往视角

公民或公民团体参与社会管理是实现社会目标、提升整体运行水平的必然要求。然而由于现实中对社会管理文化属性认识不足,公民长期作为社会管理对象,被忽略于管理主体之外。公民范畴所具有的实践品格强调公民身份只有在公共交往、社会管理以及享有权利履行义务过程中才能实现。社会管理文化指向公共领域的公共性、针对多元异质文化的包容性表明公民在社会管理中的主体地位具有原发性。肯定公民主体地位的社会管理能够给意见、分歧乃至冲突提供交流平台,以"和而不同"的文化共识实现社会管理的良性秩序。     

Resilience? Contested meanings and experiences in post-disaster Christchurch,New Zealand

The purpose of this paper is to improve understanding of the relationship between sense of place and community resilience, two concepts described and defined differently reflecting different disciplinary research, policies and practices. We draw on international literature that has focused on the interrelationship between these concepts in the context of natural disasters, as well as the findings of a multidisciplinary project in the post-earthquake Christchurch recovery context. We describe how we developed indicators of resilience linked to sense of place as it relates to home, neighbourhood and the city, including place-based social interaction and the role of scientific and technical information. Through integrating literature with the findings from project interviews and a survey, we offer new ways of considering ‘resilience’ and we discuss the implications of our findings for not just the Christchurch recovery, but for future response and recovery to natural disasters throughout New Zealand.     

网瘾对青少年社会化的不良影响及对策分析

网瘾对青少年的个性发展、文化接受以及社会结构影响很大,社会对此问题的关注度越来越高,而通过增强互动的方式对网瘾青少年进行帮助,符合青少年的特性。所以,从社会互动的角度增加青少年与陌生人之间的互动,增加与家庭成员间的互动,增加同辈群体间的互动,可以帮助青少年摆脱网瘾、走健康路。     

我国牛羊肉价格波动非线性关系研究

我国牛羊肉价格高位运行的现状长期存在,且走势基本一致,研究两者之间的内在关系具有重要意义。基于1995—2014年牛羊肉价格季度数据,利用LSTR模型对两者之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明：牛羊肉价格之间的相互关系通过“消费效应”和“生产效应”传达,其具有非线性特征,牛羊肉价格波动幅度临界值分别为0.061 2和 0.032 5,当价格波幅超过临界值时,价格影响呈现出非线性特征;在线性制度下,牛肉价格波动对羊肉价格的影响更大,而在非线性制度下则相反,这与VAR模型研究结果不同;牛羊肉价格之间的相互关系可大致划分为两个阶段,1996—2006年底主要表现为线性特征,2007年之后更多地表现为非线性特征。建议根据牛羊肉价格波动的不同临界值和制度区间,把握两者相互影响程度,出台覆盖两个品种的调控措施。     

School Bullying as a Collective Action: Stigma Processes and Identity Struggling

The aim of this study was to investigate the collective action of bullying and its stigma processes and influences on identities. In accordance with interactionism, identity is a social process, constructed and reconstructed in everyday social interactions. Ethnographic fieldwork was conducted in four school classes, investigating six bullying cases. Grounded theory methods were used to explore and analyse data. Co‐constructing differentness was found to be a core process in bullying. Bullying often appeared to function like a self‐serving and socially inclusive ritual in which the bullies co‐constructed the ‘normal us’. Loss of belonging, self‐deprecation and identity struggling followed closely upon the sense of becoming socially discredited. Victims were trapped in the collective action. The findings highlight the significance of addressing peer cultures and the social psychology of everyday school life in anti‐bullying policies and practices.     

The analytic construction of D-optimal designs for the two-variable binary logistic regression model without interaction

Candidate locally D-optimal designs for the binary two-variable logistic model with no interaction, which comprise 3 and 4 support points lying in the first quadrant of the two-dimensional Euclidean space, were introduced by Haines et al. (D-optimal designs for logistic regression in two variables. In: Lopez-Fidalgo J, Rodrigez-Diaz JM, Torsney B, editors. MODA8 – advances in model-oriented designs and analysis. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag; 2007. p. 91–98). The authors proved algebraically the global D-optimality of the 3-point design for the special case in which the intercept parameter is equal to?1.5434. However for other selected values of the intercept parameter, the global D-optimality of the proposed 3- and 4-point designs was only demonstrated numerically. In this paper, we provide analytical proofs of the D-optimality of these 3- and 4-point designs for all negative and zero intercept parameters of the binary two-variable logistic model with no interaction. The results are extended to the construction of D-optimal designs on a rectangular design space and illustrated by means of two examples of which one is a real example taken from the literature.     

Methods for exploring treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroup analysis: an application to global clinical trials

Multi‐country randomised clinical trials (MRCTs) are common in the medical literature, and their interpretation has been the subject of extensive recent discussion. In many MRCTs, an evaluation of treatment effect homogeneity across countries or regions is conducted. Subgroup analysis principles require a significant test of interaction in order to claim heterogeneity of treatment effect across subgroups, such as countries in an MRCT. As clinical trials are typically underpowered for tests of interaction, overly optimistic expectations of treatment effect homogeneity can lead researchers, regulators and other stakeholders to over‐interpret apparent differences between subgroups even when heterogeneity tests are insignificant. In this paper, we consider some exploratory analysis tools to address this issue. We present three measures derived using the theory of order statistics, which can be used to understand the magnitude and the nature of the variation in treatment effects that can arise merely as an artefact of chance. These measures are not intended to replace a formal test of interaction but instead provide non‐inferential visual aids, which allow comparison of the observed and expected differences between regions or other subgroups and are a useful supplement to a formal test of interaction. We discuss how our methodology differs from recently published methods addressing the same issue. A case study of our approach is presented using data from the Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO), which was a large cardiovascular MRCT that has been the subject of controversy in the literature. An R package is available that implements the proposed methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.