Some quantitative concepts of value and utility from a utilitarian point of view

This paper clarifies and interprets some basic quantitative concepts of value, utility and utility function from a utilitarian point of view. First, I discuss the question as to whether value is objective or subjective. I hold that value is subjective and statistical in nature (although from the various subjective values of a certain object a norm can usually be obtained). Second, I emphasize the distinction between use value and exchange value in relation to utility. Third, I propose a law of diminishing incremental interest, which refers to the incremental (marginal) utility of money. Fourth, I identify the utility of money with the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility. Fifth, I question the necessity of the usual normalization of utility functions and the restricted linear transformation (and the consequent concept of strategic equivalence). Sixth, I discuss in detail the terminal values and utilities of a utility function from a philosophical rather than mathematical point of view, particularly the boundedness of a utility function and the magnitudes of V ₀ and U ₀. Finally, I conclude that, in order to be able to have interpersonal comparisons of utility, utility should have the same dimension as value rather than no dimension, and the normalization problem should be reconsidered in the light of terminal values and utilities.     

Ordinal utility models of decision making under uncertainty

This paper studies two models of rational behavior under uncertainty whose predictions are invariant under ordinal transformations of utility. The quantile utility model assumes that the agent maximizes some quantile of the distribution of utility. The utility mass model assumes maximization of the probability of obtaining an outcome whose utility is higher than some fixed critical value. Both models satisfy weak stochastic dominance. Lexicographic refinements satisfy strong dominance.The study of these utility models suggests a significant generalization of traditional ideas of riskiness and risk preference. We define one action to be riskier than another if the utility distribution of the latter crosses that of the former from below. The single crossing property is equivalent to a minmax spread of a random variable. With relative risk defined by the single crossing criterion, the risk preference of a quantile utility maximizer increases with the utility distribution quantile that he maximizes. The risk preference of a utility mass maximizer increases with his critical utility value.     

Coherent decision analysis with inseparable probabilities and utilities

This article explores the extent to which a decision maker's probabilities can be measured separately from his/her utilities by observing his/her acceptance of small monetary gambles. Only a partial separation is achieved: the acceptable gambles are partitioned into a set of belief gambles, which reveals probabilities distorted by marginal utilities for money, and a set of preference gambles, which reveals utilities reciprocally distorted by marginal utilities for money. However, the information in these gambles still enables us to solve the decision maker's problem: his/her utility-maximizing decision is the one that avoids arbitrage (i.e., incoherence or Dutch books).     

Dynamically Consistent Preferences with Quadratic Beliefs

This article characterizes a family of preference relations over uncertain prospects that (a) are dynamically consistent in the Machina sense and, moreover, for which the updated preferences are also members of this family and (b) can simultaneously accommodate Ellsberg- and Allais-type paradoxes.Replacing the "mixture independence" axiom by "mixture symmetry" proposed by Chew, Epstein, and Segal (1991) for decision making under objective risk, and requiring that for some partition of the state space the agent perceives ambiguity and so prefers a randomization over outcomes across that partition (proper uncertainty aversion), preferences can be represented by a (proper) quadratic functional. This representation may be further refined to allow a separation between the quantification of beliefs and risk preferences that is closed under dynamically consistent updating.     

Three pseudo-paradoxes in ‘quantum’ decision theory: Apparent effects of observation on probability and utility

In quantum domains, the measurement (or observation) of one of a pair of complementary variables introduces an unavoidable uncertainty in the value of that variable's complement. Such uncertainties are negligible in Newtonian worlds, where observations can be made without appreciably disturbing the observed system. Hence, one would not expect that an observation of a non-quantum probabilistic outcome could affect a probability distribution over subsequently possible states, in a way that would conflict with classical probability calculations. This paper examines three problems in which observations appear to affect the probabilities and expected utilities of subsequent outcomes, in ways which may appear paradoxical. Deeper analysis of these problems reveals that the anomalies arise, not from paradox, but rather from faulty inferences drawn from the observations themselves. Thus the notion of quantum decision theory is disparaged.     

同类异质产品市场博弈Nash均衡最优策略模型

本文按照Nash均衡解的要求,建立同类异质产品市场用户需求分布及效用结构模型,导出不同定位的企业所实施竞争策略的若干最优条件,通过计算不同策略设计下产品相应的临界功能效用值,参与竞争的企业可找到适合于市场需求的最优决策。     

考虑质量失误的供应链博弈模型研究

在理性的制造商和供应商组成的二级供应链中,考虑存在产品质量失误的情况下,通过最优化方法选择中间品的质量水平和制造商的检测水平,以实现供应链的利润最大化.并结合实际情况,根据质量内部、外部失误的不同承担方式,讨论了三种质量损失承担方式,得到在整体损失由两者共同承担的情况下,通过制定合理的内、外部损失分配系数,可以使两者选择水平的纳什均衡解与供应链的全局最优解相符,从而实现供应链全局最优和局部最优的一致.所得结论对指导供应链的有效运作有着较好的实际意义和参考价值.     

基于质量信息不对称度的消费者效用与企业利润研究

本文回顾并分析了国内外学者关于质量信息不对称以及质量信息不对称度的相关研究成果,通过比较产品质量真实信息与消费者预期质量信息对质量信息不对称度进行了定义.创造性地将质量信息不对称度引入消费者效用和企业利润的研究之中,基于质量信息不对称度、产品质量与产品价格构建了消费者效用模型与企业利润模型,讨论了质量信息不对称度变化对消费者效用与企业利润的影响,分析了质量信息不对称度和消费者偏好变化的经济意义,实例研究验证了本文定义及推理的合理性和有效性.获得了有意义的结论:企业可以通过调整发布的信息量来改变质量信息不对称度追求较大的利润,将产品质量信息不对称度控制在合适的水平才能获得较高的企业利润和消费者效用.     

西部山区农民易地扶贫搬迁意愿的影响因素

从现在到2020年是打赢脱贫攻坚战的关键时期,从农民自身角度研究搬迁意愿,对加快实施易地扶贫移民搬迁具有重要意义。研究依据西方微观人口迁移理论：地方效用理论、计划行为理论和效价[CD*2]期望理论,整合构建了中国国情下由政府引导的易地扶贫搬迁意愿的理论分析框架。以陕南移民搬迁为例,在验证性因子分析的基础上,运用有序Logit模型和最优尺度模型对理论假设进行检验。结果显示：①心理因素、政策和预期因素、环境因素对搬迁意愿具有显著影响 ②控制变量中家庭人口数、非农劳动力比例、家庭成员求学婚姻等控制变量与搬迁意愿显著相关;③没有搬迁的主要的顾虑是搬迁后找不到工作、城镇生活成本高、搬迁成本高、搬迁后的适应等问题。研究建议政府部门在搬迁补助、就业安置、搬迁后适应等方面加大支持力度,增强搬迁的信心。     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.