Social Protection in the ‘Real World’: Issues,Models and Challenges

Social protection has evolved rapidly both conceptually and in practice, and is now a key policy issue in humanitarian and development debates. However, debates have sometimes been misled by approaches that pay inadequate attention to context‐specific factors, do not fully consider the sequence of interventions, and are too instrument‐centred. This article presents a conceptual framework to tailor social‐protection policy and implementation more closely to country contexts. Four stylised models of social protection are identified, corresponding to scenarios where social‐protection systems are absent, where elements of such systems exist, and where systems are emerging or have been consolidated. Each model is shown to lead to different challenges, implications and areas for further research.     

Young Clients of Hotel-Based Sex Workers in Bangladesh: Vulnerability to HIV,Risk Perceptions,and Expressed Needs for Interventions

ABSTRACT

A qualitative study was conducted among key informants and 53 young clients (15 to 24 years of age) of commercial sex workers from nine hotels in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Respondents reported first sexual encounter before 18 years of age, and reasons for purchasing sex were to prove masculinity or to reduce wet dreams and masturbation, thought to be detrimental to health. Limited knowledge of HIV and sexually transmitted infections was linked to high-risk sexual practices. Condom use was related to perceptions of cleanliness, status, and trust in the sex worker.

A hotel-based, confidential intervention program promoting safe sex practices among clients of sex workers is warranted.     

Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks

A quantitative probabilistic/systems analysis model is described which is useful for allocating resources to safeguard valuable documents or materials in either a fixed-site facility or a moving convoy against an overt terrorist attack. The model is also useful for ranking the sensitive areas at a site according to their survivability of a given hypothesized terrorist attempt. To compare various defense strategies and security configurations, the probability of a successful terrorist activity is computed based on event tree models of the site/security configuration. This calculation incorporates a realistic engagement model (in the event a guard force engages the terrorists prior to completion of their objective) and information on barrier penetration times (for example, distribution of the time to defeat a chain link fence or vault door, traverse an open area, and so forth). Two security analyses are described to illustrate the methodology. One example considers a terrorist attack on a convoy transporting a missile from a storage to a launch facility. The second example involves an attack on a munitions storage facility.     

Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All-Hazards Framework

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.     

PFI项目特点对项目风险事件和脆弱性的影响

不同特点的项目需要不同的管理手段与之相匹配,这样才能有效的提高项目成功率.PFI是一种公私合营的项目运营方式.它的基本目标在于充分利用私有部门的资源来为公共部门项目提供优良的服务.在目前的文献中,还缺少对于PFI项目特点与项目成功(失败)之间关系的研究.对于PFI项目的特点在项目风险过程中所起的作用不是很清楚.通过分析5个英国PFI项目,本文识别出PFI项目的一些特点:新奇性、长期性、高复杂性、紧联结性、高度战略性、多目标性和严格的法律法规限制.本文提出PFI项目的这些特点在一定程度上与项目组织活动和管理活动相互作用,一方面提高了项目风险事件发生的概率,另一方面能够增加项目脆弱性.这些机制说明拥有这些特点的PFI项目需求很高的项目管理能力.     

European River Floods in a Changing World

Whereas the verdict is undecided about the effects of global warming on Europe's flood risks, it is clear that Europeans are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to floods. Losses are increasing dramatically, mainly because of population and capital moving into harm's way and also because of human-driven transformations of hydrological systems, including river basins and floodplains.     

Credulity rather than general trust may increase vulnerability to fraud in older adults: a moderated mediation model

The present study aimed to clarify whether it is credulity or general trust that specifically affects vulnerability to fraud, as well as investigating the mediating role of susceptibility to persuasion and the moderating role of greed in this relationship. 254 Chinese older adults completed measures of credulity, general trust, susceptibility to persuasion, greed, and vulnerability to fraud. The results showed that credulity, but not general trust, was positively correlated with vulnerability to fraud, after controlling for demographic covariates. Susceptibility to persuasion partially mediated the effect of credulity on vulnerability to fraud. In addition, this mediating effect of susceptibility to persuasion was only significant in older adults with higher levels of greed. Our findings suggest that credulity, rather than general trust, is a risk factor in vulnerability to fraud among older adults, and may inform the development of supportive interventions to reduce this population’s risk of falling victim to fraud.     

重大突发公共卫生事件社会脆弱性评价及障碍因素分析

文章构建了重大突发公共卫生事件社会脆弱性评价指标体系,利用自然断点法将脆弱性按照由低到高分为Ⅰ—Ⅳ四个等级,以湖南省为例运用区间数—集对分析法、熵权法对湖南14个市州的社会脆弱性等级进行了评价,并采用障碍度模型分析了湖南省社会脆弱性的主要障碍因素。研究表明：长沙市和湘西自治州的社会脆弱性等级为Ⅰ级,株洲、湘潭、岳阳、常德、永州评价等级为Ⅱ级,社会脆弱性评价等级为Ⅲ级的是衡阳、邵阳、益阳、郴州、怀化和娄底,张家界的社会脆弱性最高,为Ⅳ级。不同市州社会脆弱性的主要来源以及降低脆弱性的有利因素因各地区人口、经济、卫生资源和政府防控等不同维度的发展差异而不尽相同。就湖南整体而言,人口、经济、卫生体系和政府防控各维度指标均对社会脆弱性存在影响,其中人口和经济因素的影响更大。     

Violence and Vulnerability: Children’s Strategies and the Logic of Violence in Burundi

This study explores how children in conflict‐affected Burundi deal with violence in their everyday lives. Focusing on schools as a context in which children are prepared for further roles in society, child‐centred, qualitative and mixed‐methods research was conducted at 36 primary schools throughout Burundi. Findings reveal that children use a variety of strategies to deal with violence they encounter. These strategies reflect a learned ‘logic of violence’, matching dynamics of violence and vulnerability in society at large. Children’s strategies are ultimately aimed at reducing vulnerability to (future) violence and indicative of the omnipresence of violence and uncertainty in Burundi.     

邻里效应对农民贫困脆弱性的影响

基于2016年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS），通过构建贫困脆弱性测量模型和Manski社会互动效应模型实证研究邻里效应对农民贫困脆弱性的影响。研究发现：整体上我国农村地区贫困脆弱性处于较低水平，2017年农村居民贫困脆弱性较2015年有所提高，同时呈现不同区域和个体具有显著差异、非贫困群体中存在高脆弱性群体的特征；贫困具有邻里效应，邻里效应对农村居民当期贫困状态和未来贫困状态均产生显著不利影响，个体关联效应与社区情景互动效应对贫困与贫困脆弱性发挥不同程度的影响；邻里效应对农村居民提高家庭人均纯收入发挥显著阻碍作用，对低收入群体发挥的阻碍边际效应明显高于高收入群体；邻里效应对农村居民贫困脆弱性影响存在明显区域差异，东北地区邻里效应对贫困脆弱性不具有显著影响，在西部地区邻里效应对贫困脆弱性加剧边际效应高于其他地区。