安全管理领域社会脆弱性研究的图示法探索

图示法是安全管理学科研究社会脆弱性行之有效的方法。不仅有助于廓清社会脆弱性及相关概念的定义阈和内涵,而且对安全管理的系统构造、运行机理、脆弱性与其它因素的相互关系等各种复杂繁冗问题,能直观、准确表示,便于认识和掌握。结构图法、流程图法、关系图法、地图法和坐标法的使用,推进了社会脆弱性研究在深度、广度和清晰度层面的展开。     

国际金融危机对农户生计影响的实证研究

通过实地调查以理解金融危机对不同生计类型的农户的影响程度、途径和后果,归纳出对金融危机敏感的农户的生计脆弱性特征。研究发现,产品市场化程度高,生产规模较大,在金融危机前家庭有大额支出且生计方式单一、人力资本短缺的农户,对金融危机的敏感性较高,更易受冲击并有可能陷入贫困。研究还表明,农户依靠自身的策略和有限的资源来应对金融危机难以取得应有的效果,需要来自政府和其他方面的支持,而现有的政策支持效果有限,论文据此提出相关建议。     

非典危机中的民众脆弱性分析

非典型肺炎危机已经构成对我国政府和民众危机应对能力的重大挑战。令人担忧的是,民众在非典危机中的应对意识和应对能力均存在严重缺陷。文章首先阐释了民众脆弱性对于危机管理的影响,并分析民众脆弱性的几个表现;结合此次危机,剖析我国民众在危机意识和应对能力方面存在的问题;最后,提出了有关克服民众脆弱性问题的几点政策建议。     

Out of Sight,Out of Mind? Geographic and Social Predictors of Flood Risk Awareness

The persistent gap in flood risk awareness in Canada, and elsewhere in North America, is a continual source of worry for researchers and emergency managers; many people living in at‐risk places are simply unaware of risks and of their proximity to hazards. This study seeks to understand which residents were aware of flood risk, using unique representative survey data of Calgary residents living in the city's flood‐prone neighborhoods collected after the devastating and costly 2013 Southern Alberta Flood. The article uses logistic regression models to analyze which residents were aware of risk to their homes. Findings indicate that, in addition to various demographic predictors, many of the geographic predictors (including the elevation of one's home relative to the river) are significant predictors of awareness. Having a direct sight line to one of Calgary's two rivers is also a significant predictor in some of the models, suggesting that the visibility of hazards matters for flood risk perception, although this effect fades when many of the geographic predictors are added. Finally, the models indicate that several variables related to local, neighborhood‐based social networks are significant as well. These findings reveal that both physical surroundings and social context are important for understanding risk awareness. The article concludes by discussing the relevance for social science research on disasters and hazards, as well as for planners and emergency managers.     

Spatial Vulnerability of Network Systems under Spatially Local Hazards

A hazard is often spatially local in a network system, but its impact can spread out through network topology and become global. To qualitatively and quantitatively assess the impact of spatially local hazards on network systems, this article develops a new spatial vulnerability model by taking into account hazard location, area covered by hazard, and impact of hazard (including direct impact and indirect impact), and proposes an absolute spatial vulnerability index (ASVI) and a relative spatial vulnerability index (RSVI). The relationship between the new model and some relevant traditional network properties is also analyzed. A case study on the spatial vulnerability of the Chinese civil aviation network system is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model, and another case study on the Beijing subway network system to verify its relationship with traditional network properties.     

少数民族新生代农民工弱势地位的自我误读

少数民族新生代农民工弱势地位的自我误读主要表现为：国家制定的民族政策忽视了少数民族的合法权益的保障;主体民族普遍歧视和排斥少数民族;暴力反击是维护合法权益的有效途径。误读的主要原因是：少数民族分布地区与汉族分布地区贫富差距不断拉大;我国少数民族城市流动人口的权益保障政策的发展和完善是一个长期的、复杂的工程;历史上民族不...     

Using Graph Models to Analyze the Vulnerability of Electric Power Networks

In this article, we model electric power delivery networks as graphs, and conduct studies of two power transmission grids, i.e., the Nordic and the western states (U.S.) transmission grid. We calculate values of topological (structural) characteristics of the networks and compare their error and attack tolerance (structural vulnerability), i.e., their performance when vertices are removed, with two frequently used theoretical reference networks (the Erdös‐Rényi random graph and the Barabási‐Albert scale‐free network). Further, we perform a structural vulnerability analysis of a fictitious electric power network with simple structure. In this analysis, different strategies to decrease the vulnerability of the system are evaluated. Finally, we present a discussion on the practical applicability of graph modeling.     

一种基于动态建链推理的网络攻击过程分析方法

提出一种动态漏洞链构造推理网络攻击过程的分析方法。以漏洞间推理关系为前提,从受害主机入手,构造有色加权有向图,在多日志中查找漏洞被利用的解释信息,并由查找结果对漏洞链动态剪枝,得到主机漏洞攻击链和攻击该受害主机的嫌疑主机,对嫌疑主机迭代分析,推理出网络漏洞攻击链。实例表明该方法能够快速有效地实现网络攻击过程分析,并且具有良好的可扩展性。     

Theoretical Perspectives of Male Sexual Abuse: Conceptualization of a Case Study

The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the traumatic impact that sexual abuse can have on a young male's development by addressing mediating dispositions that can render a child vulnerable to the effects of sexual abuse. Consideration is given to three different theoretical perspectives that are not exclusive to male victims but shed light on the impact that sexual abuse can have on the development of a young boy. These perspectives include early family relationships and attachment theory, developmental psychopathology, and trauma theory. These theoretical lenses provide a conceptual understanding into why some victims are vulnerable to the effects of sexual abuse. Each theoretical view is applied to a case study of an adolescent male with a history of early trauma and sexual abuse. Clinical implications are discussed.     

Including At-Risk Adolescents in Their Own Health and Mental Health Care

Summary

As urban adolescents encounter serious health and mental health risks, they present the allied health professions with important opportunities for health promotion and risk reduction interventions. However, the prevailing emphasis on adolescents' risk behaviors rather than on their vulnerability has limited our capacity to understand and serve them. Further limiting are the widely held myths that adolescents as a whole have few health problems and that they are poor judges of their own needs. This article presents an overview of current theories of adolescent risk and vulnerability and suggests Youth Development as an overarching framework for understanding both. Experience within a comprehensive, adolescent health and mental health center demonstrates how to meaningfully engage adolescents in their own health care from the start.